Where F1 title may be won and lost in three-way fight

The Formula 1 driver’s title will be decided in three shows at the Yas Marina circuit in Abu Dhabi on Sunday.

Lando Norris leads Red Bull’s Max Verstappen by 12 points and McLaren team-mate Oscar Piastri by 16 points as they head to a circuit that has produced many dramatic high points in the past.

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They prepared perfectly for the Grand Prix, starting in the order of Verstappen-Norris-Piastri.

With a clear points advantage, Norris became the paper favorite for the weekend.

But Verstappen had won five of the eight races before the Abu Dhabi race and had a much simpler time than the two drivers working in the same McLaren garage.

Who has the best car?

McLaren is the fastest car on average this season. It has a significant advantage in average qualifying speed – 0.274 seconds faster than the season and 0.203 seconds faster than the last eight races.

But this year’s wins are evenly split between the three drivers – Norris, Verstappen and Piastri have seven wins each. The other two grand prix wins were won by Mercedes’ George Russell.

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McLaren dominates the constructors’ championship, taking the title at the Singapore Grand Prix on the first weekend of October with six races remaining.

But it’s a reflection of having two competitive drivers in a car that consistently wins. No other team has both of those factors.

Verstappen, by contrast, has scored 93 per cent of the team’s points this year – teammate Yuki Tsunoda was too far behind to help the Dutchman in the title race and was dropped by Red Bull for next season.

Competitiveness fades throughout the season, with each car having specific strengths.

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Verstappen won the Qatar Grand Prix last weekend only because of a wrong strategy from McLaren. Beyond that, the circuit’s long, medium-speed and high-speed corners are perfect territory for McLaren.

Abu Dhabi also has some long corners, notably the hairpin on the first long straight and the long Turn Nine at the end of the second main straight.

But the McLaren wasn’t at its best on the short 90-degree bends or tight turns on the final stretch around the docks and hotels.

While Verstappen performed well on pole position, McLaren has traditionally shown an advantage this season in tire usage, which is usually a factor in Abu Dhabi.

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Who has the best history at this track?

Verstappen has won four races in Abu Dhabi and has won every race since 2020-23.

But his victory in 2021 was highly controversial – it was a championship showdown with Lewis Hamilton’s Mercedes, which Verstappen only won after the then race director instituted rules late in the safety car period.

It’s not a fair comparison of the three drivers either.

First of all, this is only Piastri’s third season in F1. Norris has been with F1 since 2019 and Verstappen has been with F1 since 2015.

But Norris won’t have a competitive car until 2023, while Verstappen has been winning races on and off since 2016.

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Norris was dominant in Abu Dhabi’s winning ways last year.

Team dynamics

McLaren’s task is more complex. They had two drivers competing for the championship and promised to give them a fair fight until one of them was no longer competing for the title.

But the team’s clear goal is to have one of their drivers win the championship – and they don’t mind which one. So don’t rule out McLaren employing some kind of team tactics.

For example, if Verstappen wins, Piastri is in the top three and Norris is fourth, the Dutchman will be the champion. But if Piastri had dropped back to allow Norris into the top three, Norris would have won the championship.

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McLaren have made it clear that they are prepared to take one action or another if required.

“We’re going to use common sense. We’re not going to give up the driver’s championship for fifth and sixth if one of the drivers doesn’t have a chance (to win the championship),” CEO Zach Brown said Friday.

Brown said McLaren would ask Piastri to help Norris in such a situation, but only if it was clear the Australian’s hopes were dashed.

At Red Bull, Verstappen can only rely on himself. Unless McLaren somehow finds itself behind one of the three other Red Bull-owned cars – Tsunoda and the two Racing Bulls of Isaac Hajjar and Liam Lawson.

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If so, expect them to make it as difficult to overtake as possible – much like Sergio Perez did with Hamilton in 2021, ultimately playing a decisive role in the outcome.

psychology

Norris must be under more pressure than anyone else.

All year, McLaren looked like a team that was going to win the Drivers’ Championship, and he was the championship leader.

At the same time, this is his first chance to win the championship and McLaren’s first chance to win the driver’s title since Hamilton won in 2008.

Yes, Hamilton was in the 2010 math competition, but was 24 points behind and only 25 points away, so wasn’t really in the race.

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Furthermore, McLaren has been fundamentally restructured since then, and while team principal Andrea Stella has previously been involved in the title race alongside Michael Schumacher, Kimi Raikkonen and Fernando Alonso, most members of the team have not been involved in the title race.

Their relative roughness has been on display at times this year, most notably in Qatar when they were the only team not to take advantage of a safety car pit stop and cost them the win as a result.

So the past few days have likely been filled with some introspection and deep analysis. Some anxiety and nervousness is understandable.

Red Bull and Verstappen, meanwhile, are completely familiar with the situation. They have won the past four Drivers’ Championships and are a ruthless, well-honed winning machine.

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As a team and driver who have done this before and didn’t expect to be in this situation, it takes the pressure off.

Verstappen has said many times that whether he wins or not, “it’s not going to change my life.”

But he said he had only one thought going into the game: “Go all out. I have nothing to lose. I’m going to attack.”