Cryptocurrency prices were firmer in early Asian trade on Friday, with Bitcoin climbing to $68,000 after a tumultuous week that tested nerves across risk markets.
The rebound was wide-ranging. XRP, Solana’s SOL, Cardano’s ADA was up 2%, while Ethereum was slightly lower, hovering below $2,000 as traders viewed this level as one to defend rather than celebrate.
This move feels more like a relief bounce than a complete transformation. After weeks of wild swings, the market is beginning to react in waves. A quick push higher attracts bargain hunters, and then a sell-off occurs once the price reaches a level where trapped holders can exit with smaller losses.
The difference this week is that each rally looks less fragile, suggesting that the forced selling is easing even if the scale of committed buying has yet to return.
Macro and geopolitics are at play, keeping traders cautious. Gold prices stabilized near $5,000 an ounce after two consecutive sessions of gains as investors priced in rising risks in the Middle East.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he would allow 10 to 15 days to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran, amid reports of a U.S. troop surge in the region. This combination supports safe-haven demand and makes it harder for risk assets to build momentum.
Wenny Cai, chief operating officer of SynFutures, said traders are recalibrating after the latest Fed meeting minutes turned more hawkish, even though a rate hike was not the main expectation.
“The market is digesting a more hawkish interpretation of the Fed’s latest meeting minutes,” Tsai said. “The key shift is not that raising rates suddenly becomes the base case, but that policymakers explicitly put raising rates back on the table without sustained cooling of inflation, which actually increases the obstacles to near-term easing.”
“This repricing has supported the dollar and tightened financial conditions at the margin, and you can feel the risks to it. Equities have softened and buying has gone back to cash-like instruments and short-dated Treasuries,” she added.
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, remains pessimistic about the overall backdrop. He said that given the previous dynamics of the market and the more cautious tone of U.S. stocks, the possibility of retesting local lows has increased and points to the final level in the second half of 2024.
On the Ethereum side, he said the coin is sitting on a long-term support line dating back to 2020 and aligned with the $2,000 area, but added that a true breakdown would need to be confirmed below recent lows around $1,500.
Beneath the surface, some indicators suggest major shareholders may be preparing to sell on the rally. CryptoQuant said Bitcoin inflows from large holders to Binance have reached record levels, a pattern that may precede an increase in spot supply.
Research firm K33 compared the current situation to the late stages of the 2022 bear market, which then entered a prolonged consolidation.
The result is that the market can rebound, but it’s difficult to turn a rebound into a trend until the growth in spot demand outpaces sellers waiting for the next round of numbers.
