Cryptocurrency markets rebounded sharply on Sunday after pricing on Saturday what looked like the start of a protracted regional war.
Bitcoin climbed to $66,843, up 5.2% in the past 24 hours, recouping most of its losses from falling below $64,000 on Saturday after the United States and Israel attacked Iran.
The stock market rebound accelerated after Iranian state television confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which was seen as increasing the likelihood of a shortened conflict.
Solana led the recovery among major currencies, surging 10.8% to $86.42. Ethereum rose 7.5% to regain $1,994, returning to $2,000 for the first time since Thursday. Cardano is up 6.7%, Dogecoin is up 6.5%, XRP is up 5.6%, and BNB is up 4.8%.
However, each week the picture is more confusing. Bitcoin is still down 1.6% over seven days, XRP is down 2% and Dogecoin is down 2.5%. Solana and Ethereum were the only major currencies to resume gains this week, rising 1.7% and 1.1% respectively.
The weekend’s volatility was high but the net change was small, reflecting the broader story of markets swinging wildly on global headlines but not really moving at all.
The rally looks convincing on the 24-hour chart, but fragile against the backdrop. Saturday’s sell-off comes amid thin liquidity over the weekend. Sunday’s rally also took place amid thin liquidity, but in the opposite direction.
The real test will come in a few hours, when stock futures, oil and bond markets reopen and institutional capital will have its first chance to react to Saturday’s events.
As reported earlier on Sunday, Polymarket’s ceasefire contract stipulates a 78% chance of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran by April 30 and a 61% chance of a ceasefire by March 31.
If this pricing holds once traditional markets price in the weekend, the rally will continue. However, if oil prices surge and stocks open lower, the cryptocurrency’s optimism on Sunday could fade as it did Wednesday’s push to $70,000.
