WEST LAFAYETTE — This Purdue University men’s basketball team seeks a unique championship identity, and this appears to be the only one they can have.
The NCAA Tournament selection committee ranked the Boilermakers as the No. 2 seed in Saturday’s in-season preview. From now on, they will probably cross the 2-3 line. Two years after reaching the national championship game, any path to glory this March and April will be at least slightly more complicated.
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Seven of the last eight national champions have been No. 1 seeds. This has nothing to do with the benefits of early turn matchups. Quite simply, the consensus best team after 30-plus regular season games is still the best team three weeks later.
What a concept.
Oh, and the only exception to that #1 ranking? UConn, a No. 4 seed, peaked early, winning the first of two back-to-back titles.
Purdue almost joined the club two years ago. It dominated all night long from the season opener to the national semifinals in Phoenix. A national championship-caliber team meets a UConn team undergoing a dynasty shift. The Boilermakers — from Matt Painter’s roster construction to his players’ execution — controlled everything they could, almost maximizing their potential.
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While this team has had some big wins on the road and is playing at a high level overall, it doesn’t exude the same natural force.
At this point, the No. 1 seed may be out of reach. Even if the Boilermakers finish the regular season with a 5-0 record and beat teams like Michigan State (Saturday’s No. 1 overall seed) and Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament, why would the committee reward those wins over their opponents at Mackey Arena? Iowa State, one of Saturday’s other No. 1 seeds, also has one.
However, as long as they don’t fall in the next four games, the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds seem to be quite guaranteed. A win over Michigan State on Thursday would solidify that status.
This allows Purdue to worry less about changing its seeds and more about changing people’s perceptions of seeds.
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It needs to look like the scariest No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the bracket over the next three weeks. When the Boilers suddenly become a potential national semifinal opponent, that needs to be a reason for No. 1 seed fans to cringe.
This does not require fundamental changes to performance. This requires a more consistent approach and ongoing improvements in key areas.
According to KenPom, Purdue’s adjusted offensive rating is 129.7, better than any national champion. However, this team may not be at its best with three-point shooting just yet. He shot 10-for-18 from the field on Friday against Indiana University after shooting over 40% in two of his previous five games and below 31% in three.
Of course, opponents have some say in this. Teams can also catch fire, leaving opponents helpless. In three games of the 2019 NCAA Tournament, he shot 48.4 percent from 3-point range, all but breaking a Final Four drought that Purdue fans had before hearing about Zach Eddy.
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Calming the volatility may not be as important as catching the rise at the right moment.
Purdue can dominate the board on a given night. It remains a key component of attacking efficiency, with dropbacks and extra possession improving total points and weakening opponents. Oscar Cluff ranks seventh nationally in offensive rebound rate, while Trey Kaufman-Renn remains inside the top 30.
More important, though, is overcoming the occasional holes on the defensive glass. Illinois and Michigan both built on their wins at McGee with second-chance success. Against an Indiana opponent, Purdue should have handled it on the glass, giving up an offensive rebound.
Rebounding consistency remains critical as the biggest remaining question mark.
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Contrary to KenPom’s numbers, Purdue’s adjusted defensive rating is 98.0. Only one national champion had an ADE above 92.5 – second-seeded Villanova, which finished with a score of 94.0.
The Boilermakers can’t change their defensive identity at this point, but they can enhance it. We’ve seen some signs of it in recent weeks – a more concerted effort, better communication, more attention to detail. Between now and the first round of missions, they can build on these advances.
Purdue’s improvement on defense and improvement on offense should make opposing coaches anxious. The task between today and Sunday’s tryouts should be to make the No. 1 player feel like they’re being treated unfairly.
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This article originally appeared in the Indianapolis Star: March Madness Bracket Predictions: Purdue Basketball Seeds, Predicting 2026
