The United States appears ready to attack Iran.
Washington has been building troops in the Middle East for weeks and now looks set to mass more airpower in the region than at any time since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Of course, this could still be a bluff designed to force the Iranian regime into a deal they don’t want to make. It is known that America’s Gulf Arab allies have warned the United States not to launch attacks that could have unintended consequences.
So while the potential targets of U.S. attacks are largely predictable, the outcomes are unpredictable.
If negotiations fail and President Donald Trump decides to order an attack, what are the likely outcomes?
1. Targeted surgical strikes to minimize civilian casualties and transition to democracy
The U.S. Air Force and Navy conduct limited precision strikes against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) military bases and paramilitary Basij forces under IRGC control, ballistic missile launch and storage sites, and Iran’s nuclear program.
With an already weakened regime overthrown and finally transitioning to a true democracy, Iran can rejoin the rest of the world.
This is a very optimistic scenario. Western military intervention in Iraq and Libya did not bring about a smooth transition to democracy. While both events ended brutal dictatorships, they ushered in years of chaos and bloodshed.
2. The regime survives, but policies moderate
This could be broadly referred to as the “Venezuela model,” in which swift and forceful U.S. action left the regime intact but moderated its policies.
In Iran’s case, this would mean that the Islamic Republic survives, which would not satisfy large numbers of Iranians, but is forced to reduce its support for violent militias across the Middle East, halt or scale back its domestic nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and ease its crackdown on protests.
Again, this is an unlikely scenario.
For 47 years, the Islamic Republic’s leadership has been defiant and resistant to change. Now it appears it cannot change course. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, now in his 80s, is particularly resistant to change or compromise.
3. The regime collapses and is replaced by military rule
Many believe this is the most likely outcome.
While the regime is clearly unpopular with many, and each successive wave of protests over the years has further weakened it, there remains a large and pervasive security deep state with a vested interest in the status quo. For example, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is deeply involved in the Iranian economy.
The main reason the protests have so far failed to topple the regime is that there have been no major defections to their side, and those in power are prepared to use unlimited force and brutality to stay in power.
In the chaos that followed the U.S. airstrikes, it was conceivable that Iran would eventually be ruled by a powerful military junta composed mainly of members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Iranian police special forces monitored a pro-government rally in Tehran earlier this month [Getty Images]
4. Iran retaliates by attacking US military, Arab neighbors and Israel
This is very possible.
Iran vowed last month to retaliate against any US attack, saying “its finger is on the trigger” and Khamenei promised to give US forces “a slap in the face” if attacked.
Iran clearly cannot match the might of the U.S. Navy and Air Force, but it can still attack with its ballistic missiles and drones, many of which are hidden in caves, underground, or on remote hillsides.
U.S. bases and facilities dot the Arab side of the Gulf, particularly in Bahrain and Qatar, but if Iran wished, it could also target some critical infrastructure in any country it believed to be involved in a U.S. attack, such as Jordan or Israel.
In 2019, Iranian-backed Iraqi militias launched devastating missile and drone attacks on Saudi Aramco’s petrochemical facilities, demonstrating just how vulnerable the Saudis are to Iranian missiles.
Iran’s Gulf Arab neighbors, all allies of the United States, are understandably nervous because any U.S. military action will eventually backlash against them.
Last month, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates said they would not allow the United States to use their airspace for any attacks. This would not necessarily protect them from Iranian retaliation.
5. Iran retaliates by laying landmines in the Gulf
This has been a potential threat to global shipping and oil supplies since the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war, when Iran did mine the waterway and Royal Navy minesweepers helped clear it.
The narrow Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman is a critical chokepoint. About 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and 20-25% of oil and petroleum by-products pass through the strait each year.
Earlier this week, as talks on a U.S.-Iran deal got under way in Geneva, Iran closed the strait for several hours for a live-fire drill — its first closure since the 1980s and a symbolic show of force.
On Thursday, it reportedly conducted military exercises with Russian sailors in the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean.
It also conducted drills for rapid deployment of mines. If it does this again, it will inevitably affect world trade and oil prices. In this scenario, the biggest losers would be Iran itself (since it relies on oil exports for revenue) and its main customers in Asia, especially China.
[BBC]
6. Iran retaliates by sinking a US warship
A U.S. Navy captain on a warship in the Gulf once told me that one of the threats he was most worried about from Iran was “swarm attacks.”
Iran launches so many high-explosive drones and fast torpedo boats at single or multiple targets here that even the powerful close-range defense of the U.S. Navy cannot eliminate them all in time.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy has long replaced the regular Iranian navy in the Gulf, and some of its commanders were even trained at Dartmouth during the Shah’s time.
Much of the training of Iranian naval personnel focuses on unconventional or “asymmetric” warfare, finding ways to overcome or circumvent the technological advantages enjoyed by its primary adversary, the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet.
If an American warship was sunk, the survivors of its crew might be captured, which would be a great shame for the United States.
While this scenario was considered unlikely, the multi-billion dollar destroyer USS Cole was hit by an Al Qaeda suicide attack in the port of Aden in 2000, killing 17 US sailors.
Previously, in 1987, an Iraqi jet pilot mistakenly fired two Exocet missiles at the USS Stark in the Gulf, killing 37 sailors.
The United States will deploy two aircraft carrier battle groups to the region when the USS Gerald R. Ford, currently transiting the Mediterranean, arrives in the region in the coming weeks.
Anti-American murals seen in public spaces around Tehran as threat of US military intervention grows [Anadolu via Getty Images]
7. Regimes collapse and are replaced by chaos
This is a very real danger and one of the main concerns for neighboring countries such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
In addition to the potential for civil war to break out (as experienced in Syria, Yemen and Libya), there is a risk that ethnic tensions could turn into armed conflict amid chaos and chaos as Kurds, Balochs, Azerbaijanis and other minorities look to protect their own people in a national power vacuum.
Much of the Middle East will certainly be happy to see the return of the Islamic Republic, especially Israel, which has dealt a heavy blow to Iran’s proxies in the region and fears that Iran’s dubious nuclear program poses an existential threat to them.
But no one wants to see the Middle East’s largest country, with a population of about 93 million, descend into chaos and trigger a humanitarian and refugee crisis.
The greatest danger now is that President Trump, who has amassed this powerful force near the border with Iran, decides he must act or risk losing face and starting a war with no clear end state and with unpredictable and potentially devastating consequences.
