UFC London preview and predictions: Movsar Evloev or Lerone Murphy — who earns a title shot?

Whenever the UFC travels to London, England, it’s usually a party. For the first visit of the year, it’s all about the featherweight division, as either Movsar Evloev or Lerone Murphy will suffer their first career defeat.

As with most UFC Fight Night events these days, UFC London relies heavily on its main event to capture the attention of the MMA community. A recurring theme at these shows in 2026 is the plethora of favorites, but with Saturday’s headliner being a key matchup in the 145-pound weight class, Evloev only has a slim odds advantage despite missing all of last year.

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Murphy stepped in to capitalize on Evloev’s 2025 fight with Aaron Pico, scoring the best knockout of the year but still missing the first featherweight title fight in 2026. There’s still no indication that the winner of this weekend’s main event will go on to challenge UFC champion Alexander Volkanovski, but the matchup seems to be exactly what you’d expect from a true No. 1 contender.

The card also features the ever-entertaining Michael “Venom” Page returning to his hometown for a strange pairing with Sam Patterson – who somehow, no Co-main event. Those honors belong to undefeated British star Luke Riley, who will defeat American Michael Aswell.

There appears to be a mismatch once again at UFC London. Don’t get it twisted, though – the main event is about as good as it gets for a non-title fight.

👑 UFC London roster crown grade: D+. 👑

Betting Odds Pass Bette MGM.

145 pounds: Movsar Evloev (-250) vs. Lerone Murphy (+200)

In a slightly altered parallel universe, UFC London is now hosting a featherweight title fight.

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Evloev has long been hailed as a future champion, with many experts and fans predicting 2025 will be his year. They say all he needs is a chance and then you can record another opportunity in the history books of the Russian MMA Championship. Instead, he was forced to embark on a long road in pursuit of a 10th UFC victory and his goal of going 20 professional fights undefeated.

Murphy could say the same thing at 18 fights, but he got a draw in his UFC debut, tying him with Evloev for win streaks with the promotion. Coincidentally, both men have been criticized for perhaps not being the most exciting fighters in the 145-pound division — at least before their most recent fights.

Murphy showed incredible patience as he weathered the storm and prepared to deliver the coup de grace to Pico. Was this game tailor-made for Murphy to create a career highlight? Of course, especially when you’re evaluating and rewatching the game moment by moment. Aside from champion Volkanovski, Murphy is the Swiss Army Knife of the featherweight division, capable of doing everything extremely well.

Evloev is a clinical and calculating striker, but his real strength lies on the ground. As an elite grappler who is confident in every position once the fight gets to the mat, that could be bad news for Murphy. Against an aggressive wrestler like Pico, Murphy was taken down at crucial moments. While this ultimately led to Pico’s downfall, Evloev brought a similar level of danger but was unwilling to leave any defensive holes like the former Bellator contender.

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Granted, the five-round length allows this fight to Very Fascinating. A veritable decision-making machine, Evloev has not competed in a championship match since before entering the UFC, when he dominated M-1 Global in 2017-18 to become the bantamweight champion. For the most part, this should be a typical Evloev breakdown, but Murphy will come out strong late on. The Russian’s skills have been too sharp throughout his career and I can see him delivering undeniable performances regardless of suspension.

Choice: Evloev

145 pounds: Luke Riley (-220) vs. Michael Aswell (+180)

Luke Riley has a chance to really build momentum at home, and the UFC seems to be fully behind him with the placement of this card. The young British star has hinted that he might develop into a well-rounded, composed boxer, but this is still very much a “prove it” phase of his career.

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Michael Aswell, meanwhile, feels like the type of opponent who will either get overwhelmed quickly or drag things into uncomfortable situations. He’s aggressive, a little rough, and willing to let fights get messy, which isn’t always ideal for a prospect trying to look clean and in control. Both are at a stage where they have a lot to prove.

Riley should be a sharper and more skilled boxer, especially if he can stay in range and avoid getting into scrap. But it could get tougher if Aswell can mix things up early on. Overall, Riley looks more suited to the role and has performed better during his 12-fight unbeaten run.

Select: Riley

170 pounds: Michael Paige (-190) VS Sam Patterson (+155)

Guys, this fight is still pointless. This is quite possibly the most nerve-wracking matchmaking of the past decade, and I’m serious.

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Page is a well-known fan favorite and showman who entered the UFC on a high profile and quickly rose up the welterweight ranks. He then had a side mission at middleweight, with wins over Sharapuddin Magomedov and Jared Cannonier, a one-time title challenger and perennial title contender. Page made it look easy…and now he’s got the prospect of Patterson?

Make it meaningful.

None of this is meant to throw shade at Patterson. He is currently on a four-fight win streak in the UFC, defeating all of his opponents. Clearly, the UFC sees something in this guy and wants to see him do his thing here at the expense of the older but still talented Page. It’s just the way, the way, Way Easier said than done.

For “MVP” opponents, range and distance management are nearly impossible. As his snake-like nickname suggests, he cracked the code of gliding across the cage and attacking. Patterson has to follow everyone else’s path to beat Page — which means closing the distance and suffocating, or landing hard shots tight. Otherwise, he would have been groomed like most people.

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Patterson has a bright future, but a matchup like this might just require more experience or a perfect game plan.

Select: Page

205 pounds: Iwo Baraniewski (-700) vs. Austen Lane (+500)

It’s at this point that we once again question how Austin Ryan is still in the UFC after winning four of six fights – and also starting his campaign with a no contest.

Look, regardless of Ryan moving from heavyweight to light heavyweight, this is about as good a preparation for a fight as you can ask for. This guy is chained up more than a Frankenstein’s neck, and Ivo Baranievski proved himself to be a true lunatic in last year’s insane epic against Ibo Aslan.

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Once these two inevitably swing, Baraniewski lands and the lights go out.

Choice: Baraniwski

185 pounds: Roman Dolizer (+360) vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (-500)

Roman Dolizer’s days may be numbered.

The Georgia native was used to excelling in relatively chaotic games, where he would throw heavy, awkward shots that turned fights into brawls and skill gave way to toughness. That still holds true, depending on the opponent — but Christian Leroy Duncan isn’t that guy. Doliese should make this a snuggle as soon as possible instead of immediately taking a nap because he’s overconfident in his offense.

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Duncan is flashy and at his best when he can stay long, pick his shots and stay clean. Hopefully he can control his range and fight with discipline, making him look like a far superior forward.

I mean, we’re talking about a guy who knocks out his opponent with back-to-back spinning attacks.

Choice: Duncan

145 pounds: Curtis Campbell (-225) VS Danny Silva (+185)

This feels like a fight that could quietly steal the show and actually feel like a Contender Series event on the UFC stage.

On the surface, Campbell is a calmer, more well-rounded fighter who prefers to stay technical and pick his spots rather than dive headfirst into the chaos. Silva, on the other hand, tends to take the fight to you, whether you like it or not, pushing the pace and forcing exchanges that can quickly become frantic. Browsing his record without knowing the details might give some pause, but there’s clearly no shame in losing to Kevin Vallejos.

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This fight ultimately comes down to the danger factor, and Campbell has proven he has more of it, at least at the lower levels of MMA. His various attacks are lethal, but Silva has been abysmal without scoring in his past four games. We like The Uncrowned King to have a little bit of danger here.

Pick: Campbell

Preliminary explanation

By now, loyal Uncrowned King readers probably know that I love Nathaniel Wood and that I ride with him regularly. His showdown with Losanne Keita was no different.

Still, Mason Jones takes center stage in the preliminaries gang. Since his first UFC appearance, “The Dragon” has put it all together, winning six straight, including both of his UFC returns. Both fights against Jeremy Stephens and Bolaji Okey are intriguing, reaffirming why Jones is as hyped as he was all those years ago.

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Beyond that, expect some one-sided onslaught in the morning stateside, as the UFC London preliminaries aren’t organized to deliver a competitive outcome.

Quick selection:

• Mason Jones (-125) def. Axel Sola (+105)

• Nathaniel Wood (+190) Defense. Losene Keita (-235)

• Mario Pinto (-900) def. Felipe Franco (+600)

• Mantas Kondratavicius (-800) def. Antonio Troccoli (+550)

• Brando Perisic (-275) def. Louis Sutherland (+220)

• Shaquem Rock (+135) Defense. Abdul Karim Selwadi (-135)

• Shanell Dyer (-500) def. Ravena Oliveira (+360)

• Luanna Carolina (-135) def. Melissa Mullins (+110)