U.S. inflation data take center stage: Crypto Week Ahead

Inflation is back in focus this week, with new data inflows likely to impact expectations for U.S. interest rates and risk assets like Bitcoin Bitcoin$68,962.67.

U.S. February core PCE data released on Thursday and March consumer price index (CPI) released on Friday will test the view that the Fed can wait before cutting interest rates. Earlier this year, a rate cut looked almost a certainty. Things have changed now. Polymarket believes that the probability of no interest rate cut in 2026 has climbed to 35.9% from about 2.9% in mid-January.

André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, said on social media that Bitcoin was “already priced into the (U.S.) recession” and acted as a “canary in the coal mine,” falling below signals from financial conditions and forward-looking indicators.

Recent data complicates this view. The ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly rose in March, suggesting the U.S. economy may be more resilient to higher oil prices than in past cycles.

Following the news, the market-based probability of a recession this year dropped from around 37% to 28%.

Dragosch noted that Bitcoin’s risk-reward ratio is “clearly skewed to the upside” as its price plummets. Still, an unexpected escalation in the war in the Middle East could trigger this pricing storm.

What to see

(All times are Eastern Time)

• cryptocurrency
  • April 6, 12pm: DeFi Dev Corp. (DFDV) will host its March 2026 Review and Q&A (AMA) session on X Spaces.
  • April 8: The stable version of Stellar’s ​​Yardstick protocol is released.
  • April 9: Airport Flight School closes and merges with the Public Goods Fund to form the Momentum Fund.
  • April 9: Binance migrates all DAI functionality to USDS.
• Macro
  • April 6, 9:00 am: U.S. March ISM services PMI estimate is 55 (previous value 56.1)
  • April 7, 07:15 am: U.S. ADP Employment Change Weekly Report (estimated 10K)
  • April 7, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. durable goods orders in February were 04% month-on-month (previous value: 0%)
  • April 7, 11:35 a.m.: Chicago Fed President and CEO Austan Goolsby joins a conversation on economic and monetary policy.
  • 4:00 a.m. on April 8: Eurozone PPI in February is expected to be -1.9% year-on-year (previous value -2.1%); month-on-month is expected to be 0.5% (previous value: 0.7%)
  • April 8, 1:00 pm: Minutes of the FOMC March 17-18 meeting are released.
  • April 9, 7:30 am: The US core PCE price index in February is estimated to be 0.4% month-on-month (previous value: 0.4%);
  • April 9, 7:30 am: U.S. personal income in February is expected to be 0.3% month-on-month (previous value: 0.4%); personal expenditures are expected to be 0.5% month-on-month (previous value: 0.4%)
  • April 9, 7:30 am: US fourth-quarter GDP growth is expected to be 0.7% quarter-on-quarter (final) (previous value 4.4%)
  • April 9, 7:30 a.m.: The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending April 4 is expected to be 200,000 (previous value: 202,000)
  • 8:30 pm on April 9: China’s CPI in March is expected to be 1.2% year-on-year (previous value 1.3%); month-on-month (previous value 1%)
  • 8:30 pm on April 9: China’s PPI in March is expected to be 0.4% year-on-year (previous value -0.9%)
  • April 10, 7:30 a.m.: Canada’s unemployment rate in March (previous value 6.7%)
  • April 10, 7:30 am: U.S. March CPI is expected to be 0.9% month-on-month (previous value: 0.3%); core CPI is expected to be 0.3% month-on-month (previous value: 0.2%)
  • April 10, 7:30 am: U.S. CPI in March is expected to be 3.4% year-on-year (previous value: 2.4%); core CPI is expected to be 2.7% year-on-year (previous value: 2.5%)
  • April 10, 10:00 am: University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (preliminary data for April) is expected to be 52.5 (previous value 53.3)
• income (Estimate based on FactSet data)

Token event

• Governance votes and calls
  • April 7: Kamino and xStocks host X Spaces conference on tokenization.
  • Aave DAO is voting to adjust oracle configurations, lower liquidation thresholds, and modify its V2 market’s interest rate model to support its continued deprecation. Voting closes on April 6.
  • Decentraland DAO is voting to ask the DAO Council and Regenesis Labs to officially release a 2030 definition of success and contingency plan. The proposal currently has the support of voters. Voting closes on April 6.
  • The Balancer DAO is voting on two related proposals to reorganize operations, reduce team and budget, and improve token economics by stopping BAL emissions, discontinuing veBAL, transferring all fees to the treasury, and offering token buybacks. Voting closes on April 7.
  • CoW DAO voted 85 to fix its solver reward budget at 50% of protocol revenue, dividing it between performance rewards and new consistency rewards. The proposal received overwhelming support and closed on April 7.
  • ShapeShift DAO is voting to cut DFC compensation, saving FOX approximately $24,000 per year. It clarifies roles and requires annual updates. Voting closes on April 8.
  • The Arbitrum DAO is voting on two proposals to modify its audit plan through a flexible adjustment framework and AI security scanning pilot, and to transfer 6,000 ETH and idle stablecoins to a treasury management portfolio to generate revenue. Voting closes on April 9.
• Unlock
  • April 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock 0.14% of its circulating supply, worth $11.94 million.
  • April 8: STABLE will unlock 4.14% of its circulating value, worth $23.97 million.
  • April 9: Aptos easy$0.8520 Unlocking 0.68% of its circulating supply, worth $9.56 million.
• Token issuance
  • April 9: OneFootball (OFC) token generation event occurs.

Meeting