WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump successfully capitalized on voters’ anxieties about the economy, immigration and crime last year to win back the White House and put many other Republicans in the White House with him. But that strategy may be harder to replicate as the party tries to maintain complete control of Washington.
Republicans have lost a series of elections over the past month, some spectacularly. The latest setback came this week when a Democrat won the Miami mayoral race for the first time in three decades. Democrats also won special elections in historically Republican districts in Georgia.
In another sign that Trump’s influence over his party is limited, he failed on Thursday to convince Indiana senators to approve a new congressional map that would have helped Republicans pick up two more seats.
Perhaps most worrisome to Republicans is that Trump is losing ground on the issues that fueled his comeback last year, potentially undermining his role as a surrogate for the party’s candidates in the midterm elections. An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll shows that only 31% of American adults now approve of his handling of the economy, down from 40% in March. Trump has struggled to acknowledge public concerns, telling Politico this week that he gives himself an “A+++++” grade on the economy.
The picture is not so bright on other issues that Trump has exploited, including crime and immigration. Despite Trump’s aggressive law-and-order posture, including the deployment of the National Guard in Washington and other Democratic-led cities, Americans’ approval of his handling of crime has slipped to 43 percent from 53 percent a few months ago. Immigration has been Trump’s most consistent priority since he began his political career a decade ago, and approval of his handling of the issue has dropped from 49% in March to 38% now.
As midterm elections approach, Republicans are worried
With Democrats just a few seats away from taking back the House majority, Republicans are increasingly uneasy and frustrated, watching developments with the potential for a repeat of the dynamics of Trump’s first midterm election, in which Democrats gained a net 40 seats in 2018.
“If you’re not worried, then you’re living in a cave,” Sen. Jim Justice, R-Va., told reporters Thursday. “If you’re not paying attention to the election that’s happening, you’re living in a cave. As Republicans, a lot of times we’re not good at messaging. Democrats are the pros at this. We’re not good at it.”
With nearly a year until the vote, it’s impossible to predict how the balance of power in Washington will change. Historically, the party that holds the presidency loses seats in Congress in the first midterm election after the presidential election. But the scale of Democratic wins in 2018 may be difficult to replicate because redistricting and other voting patterns result in fewer truly competitive districts.
Trump, for his part, remains publicly confident in the party’s prospects.
“People want us to win the midterms, and I think we have a great spirit,” he said at an event Wednesday. “We should win the midterm elections.”
His chief of staff, Susie Wiles, recently said in a podcast that Trump will campaign aggressively next year and that Republicans will effectively “get him on the ballot.” But the challenges of that strategy became apparent this week, when a trip to Pennsylvania intended to focus on fighting inflation was overshadowed by resentment over immigrants from “dirty” countries.
Other challenges continue to emerge. Pressure from rogue Republicans forced Trump to finally agree to vote to demand the release of documents on Jeffrey Epstein. The legislation passed this week includes several measures targeting Trump’s Defense Department.
affordability perspective
Many Republicans running in some of the most competitive congressional districts in the country are not distancing themselves from Trump. Washington state Sen. John Braun, who is challenging Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, said Trump would be fine if he decided to visit the district. He also noted with appreciation Vice President JD Vance’s plans to increase his travel schedule.
While Braun is optimistic about the party’s chances, he’s also aware of the challenges Republicans face heading into 2026. He said affordability is the top issue he hears from constituents.
“We still have a lot of work to do, and a lot of it is going to depend on the national level, especially how Republicans influence affordability issues,” Braun said. “People are interested in a lot of things, a variety of issues. But the most important thing right now is how do I support myself and my family in this environment? Over the next 11 months, we have to do the right things.”
In Washington on Thursday, there was a clear sense among congressional Republicans that the right thing was not happening. Frustration has grown after the Senate refused to extend health care subsidies, essentially guaranteeing that millions of Americans will face steep increases in costs in January, exacerbating voters’ existing economic worries.
Republican Sen. Thom Tillis, who chose not to be re-elected, said this moment is more dangerous for Republicans than the period before the 2018 midterm elections, when failed attempts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act intensified Democrats’ attacks on health care. He argued that, at least in that debate, voters had nothing to lose as they did in January.
“Our failure to do otherwise did not create the cliff that people are going to hit,” Tillis said. “That’s the fundamental difference in an election year.”
Some Republicans on Capitol Hill have expressed concerns about the party’s problems communicating with voters. Some say without last-minute solutions to stem rising health care costs, there may not be an effective message.
“If people were suddenly paying thousands of dollars for health care, I don’t know what kind of messaging would work in that situation,” said Rep. Kevin Kelly, R-Calif. “That’s the way it is. So we can try to (say) ‘Oh, is this their fault or is it our fault.'” Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of the energy seems to be going into here. “
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Associated Press writer Kevin Freking contributed to this report.
