Transform Ventures CEO Michael Terpin says the current state of the cryptocurrency market is developing almost exactly as historical patterns suggest
That’s why he’s skeptical of recent overly optimistic bottom predictions. “When people think the bottom is going to be $80,000 and it’s just going to be a six-week bear market, that seems ridiculous to me,” Terpin said at the Consensus 2026 Hong Kong conference on Thursday.
He believes predictions that Bitcoin will bottom out at $60,000 and immediately resume its climb are premature. “It also seems a little too early.”
While Turpin stopped short of predicting another year-long decline, he argued the market could face “yet another pain point” in what he described as a fragile environment. He believes Bitcoin could revisit $50,000 or even $40,000 levels before forming a lasting bottom.
Halving is central to Bitcoin’s design because it cuts the reward for miners to verify transactions in half approximately every four years, thus slowing down the creation of new coins.
This inherent supply shock reinforces Bitcoin’s scarcity, which is a core part of its value proposition, and has historically preceded major bull markets as new supply dwindles to meet stable or growing demand.
Over time, the halving mechanism will slow Bitcoin’s inflation rate, eventually limiting the total supply to 21 million coins and solidifying its status as digital gold.
“We are exactly where we should be,” Turpin said, pointing to the well-established four-year cycle surrounding Bitcoin’s halving event.
He believes that one of the most reliable elements of previous cycles is the approximate timing of bubble peaks and subsequent unwinding.
“The bull market breaks out in the fourth quarter after the halving,” he noted, adding that the speculative breakout phase typically lasts between nine and 11 months. “This time it’s 11 months.”
Terpin is very similar to the previous cycle. “The peak and burst of the bubble occurred on November 10, 2021,” he said. “The lowest point was after FTX declared bankruptcy on November 10, 2022. That’s a full year.”
Even the broader four-year rhythm shows surprising consistency. Turpin said that a full halving cycle differs from a clean four-year interval by just three days, and in terms of its peak-trough structure, the first halving cycle differed by only a few weeks each year.
Read more: Crypto asset management company Bitwise says Bitcoin will break the four-year cycle in 2026
