This winter’s seemingly endless snowstorms have many in Connecticut wondering when the next “big one” will arrive.
Some forecast models are showing another threat from snow next week, so let’s take a look at the latest forecast trends to get a better idea of the amount of snow we may face.
A relatively warm start to the weekend will begin with temperatures in the mid-40s on Saturday, with cooler weather set to begin on Sunday and into next week. In a Wednesday forecast discussion at the National Weather Service’s Boston office, the agency noted that while the coming cold will be biting, it could be much worse, saying, “One factor preventing this Arctic outbreak from becoming dangerously cold is that we are only about a month away from the spring equinox, which means the sun’s angle will help keep temperatures warmer than during previous Arctic outbreaks in January.”
The following sentences from the Meteorological Service’s forecast discussion point out that there are huge differences in forecast model scenarios when it comes to the threat of snowfall next week. Here’s what these predictive models show.
Still ‘pending’ on Monday
GFS computer models repeatedly showed a storm sliding in from the west on Monday, bringing a narrow band of heavy snow to Connecticut. As of midday Wednesday, the latest forecast pushed snowfall potential toward the mid-Atlantic, leaving New England with little to no snow on Monday.
A GFS computer model running Wednesday morning brought light snow to Connecticut on Monday, resulting in minimal snow accumulation. (weather clock)
Meanwhile, the ECMWF (often referred to as the “Euro”) maintains a strong area of high pressure over the Northeast, keeping Connecticut safe from any precipitation until a round of light winter mix arrives on Tuesday.
ECMWF computer models kept high pressure stable over the Northeast on Monday. (weather clock)
While the latest GFS shows the storm farther south than previous model runs, many meteorologists (myself included) are hesitant to rule out any possibility, especially after the dramatic turnaround in the days leading up to Monday’s blizzard. Some winter seasons are more active than others, and this winter it seems like snow will fall every chance you get.
It’s worth mentioning that NOAA’s AI-enhanced version of the GFS in 2025 could keep Monday’s storm primarily to our south while bringing an inch or two of light snow across the state.
Ensemble: Probability-Based Forecasting
Because there is so much variation in forecast models, it is often helpful to look at the ensemble forecasts. If you’re not familiar with them, you can think of a forecast ensemble as many slightly different versions of the same forecast and see how often snow occurs. The more team members there are showing off the snow scene, the more likely it is that the snow scene will actually happen.
GFS Ensemble The chance of at least 6 inches of snow falling in Connecticut is about 40 to 50 percent, which is a pretty strong sign of snow in the five-day forecast.
The GFS overall forecast Wednesday morning showed a 40 to 50 percent chance of at least 6 inches of snow on Monday. (weather clock)
The latest run by the ECMWF Ensembles has other ideas, with a less than 10 percent chance of 6 inches or more of snow Monday, with only a small portion of southwestern Connecticut having a 10 to 20 percent chance of 3 inches or more of snow Monday.
While the GFS Ensemble is forecasting snow, the ECMWF Ensemble’s Wednesday morning run has less than a 20% chance of snow on Monday. (weather clock)
bottom line
Both of these situations currently exist and will remain so until the disagreements between forecast models are resolved. With each run of the forecast model, we can hopefully get a better idea of how winter weather patterns will evolve over the next week.
Until then, let’s enjoy the mild weather on Saturday and get our snow shovels ready for next week.
This article was originally published on Track potential major snowstorms in Connecticut next week. Here’s what the latest predictive models show.
