The only thing for sure about Cincinnati Reds ace Hunter Greene and his stiff elbow is that the baseball math tells us he doesn’t have time to open the season on time in a best-case scenario – and more likely is looking at a best-case of missing the first three or four weeks of the season.
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Greene left camp last week to seek medical opinions on elbow stiffness he said dates back to the end of last season.
He also said after his lone Cactus League start this spring, “I feel great.I feel strong. It’s obviously early but I feel I’m in a good place right now. It’s easy with my velo. I feel like I was just up there playing catch.”
More: Reds name Andrew Abbott their Opening Day starting pitcher
So where does that leave the Reds and all their elevated expectations for a October success this year?
Not necessarily in bad shape, depending on how a few other factors come into play.
As we wait to learn Greene’s prognosis, here are the top five reasons the Reds can weather perhaps even a lengthy loss of their ace:
The Reds have been down this unfortunate road before and actually fared pretty well at times. Losing your ace for the start of the season for any length of time is not ideal, but last year a Grade 1 groin strain cost Greene nearly half the season, and the Reds still made the playoffs.
Two years earlier, he was sidelined most of the season as they rode their ragged bullpen to the doorstep of the playoffs before being eliminated on the second-to-last day of the season.
But here’s the proof in the pudding: The Reds strangely had a better record last year in the 72 games Greene was on the IL (39-33, .542) than they did in the 90 games he was in the rotation (44-46, .489).
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Certainly, it’s a testament to their starting pitching depth, which runs even deeper this time around with Rhett Lowder and Brandon Williamson both back from injuries that sidelined them for all of 2025.
This week will be pivotal in finding out how long Greene might miss.
After getting an MRI and meeting with team doctors in Cincinnati last week, Greene was scheduled to meet with a specialist in Los Angeles this week. If he’s cleared of any injuries, he theoretically could begin throwing again by the end of the week, at which point he would essentially be closer to the start of a natural spring training buildup than he would to getting back in a Cactus League game.
2. The Reds have a second Hunter Greene in the wings
Chase Burns had been battling fellow youngster Rhett Lowder for the fifth starter’s spot, but both now could start the season in the rotation should Hunter Greene miss extended time.
No. 2 overall draft pick? Check. Triple-digit fastball? Check. Ten strikeouts a game just by showing up for a start? Check.
Until Greene’s injury, Burns was battling Lowder for the fifth starter job. Now they both might open the season in the rotation, with Burns promising a reasonable facsimile of the Reds ace if last year’s rookie season is any indication.
Burns struck out 10 or more batters in four of his last five starts before a brief stint on the injured list followed by a powerful finish in the Reds bullpen.
3. Two words: Eugenio Suárez
Those two words come with 49 home runs slugged last year alone.
The Reds’ biggest free agent of the offseason returns to hitter friendly Great American Ball Park to do his slugging as the Reds’ cleanup hitter and personal lineup protector for Elly De La Cruz – their back-to-back home runs in their second spring game together in the lineup underscoring the vision of this season.
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The Reds finished last season just below average in run scoring and slugging last season despite the ballpark tendencies. They made the playoffs despite those struggles.
Suárez’s addition, along with the improved health of De La Cruz and growth from maybe one or two more in a young lineup, suggests the kind of overall improvement that might push the Reds at least into the upper half of the league in production — which could help offset the hit to the rotation.
4. Time, schedule on Reds’ side
The Reds have what looks like a forgiving, even soft, spots on the schedule early for more than the first quarter of the season.
Of the first 44 games, only 10 are against 2025 playoff teams. Meanwhile, six are against the Pirates, and 16 more are against the Marlins, Angels, Twins, Rockies and Nationals.
If they can get off to a good start, it gives the Reds a chance to withstand even a subsequent rough stretch and also to play around with rotation combinations to find the best options for covering even a lengthy Greene absence.
5. Pierce Johnson and the improved bullpen
Veteran Pierce Johnson was among the veteran relievers the Reds brought in during the offseason to stabilize the bullpen.
The Reds have a deeper bullpen than last year with potential length options such as Williamson available to have in the pen to open the season if the Reds feel Greene leaves them short enough in rotation innings.
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Right-hander Pierce Johnson and lefties Caleb Ferguson and Brock Burke were key additions to a returning crew that includes closer Emilio Pagán, setup men Tony Santillan and Graham Ashcraft, and late-season key performer Connor Phillips.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
MARCH 27, 1951: Walker Cooper, left, Boston Braves’ catcher, and Hobie Landrith, Reds’ backstop, talk things over at spring training camp.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
MARCH 27, 1951: Walker Cooper, left, Boston Braves’ catcher, and Hobie Landrith, Reds’ backstop, talk things over at spring training camp.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
MARCH 21, 1954: Catcher Ed Bailey and his wife.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
APRIL 3, 1956: NUXHALL: Joe Nuxhall with wife, Donzetta and sons, Phil and Kim at spring training in Tampa, Fla.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
FEBRUARY 28, 1957: Ted Kluszewski stepping into a pitch during a batting drill.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
MARCH 5, 1959: Ed Bailey working on his shoes.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
FEBRUARY 24, 1961: Among the runners above are, from left, pitcher Marv Fodor (No. 45), pitcher Dave Stenhouse (No. 61), catcher Jerry Zimmerman (No. 8), infielder Lou Skizas (No. 21), pitcher Joey Jay (hatless), catcher Larry Rancourt (No. 33), and pitcher Ken Hunt (No. 50), leading the charge.
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MARCH 12, 1961: Eddie Kasko, right, is diagramming some future Reds plays in the sands at Tampa, Fla., while a couple of his teammates, Gene Freese, left, and rookie Jim Baumer, look on during a spring training session.
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MARCH 17, 1961: Reds pitchers Jim Maloney, left, and Jim O’Toole ham it up in anticipation of St. Patrick’s Day celebrations.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
MARCH 26, 1961: Reds manager Fred Hutchinson talks a little business with Hank Greenberg, vice president and treasurer of the Chicago White Sox, during a meeting at the Reds’ spring training camp in Tampa, Fla.
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MARCH 5, 1962: Gene Freese, Cincinnati Reds’ third baseman, gets first aid from assistant trainer, Joe Carroll, after he broke his right ankle during the team’s first intra-squad game of the spring training season in Tampa. Cincinnati manager Fred Hutchinson looks on at left.
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MARCH 1963: Al Lopez Field, winter home of the Cincinnati Reds in Tampa, Fla.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
MARCH 24, 1963: Don Blasingame and daughter Dawn at spring training in Tampa.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
MARCH 5, 1967: Reds’ veteran Jim Maloney, left, chats with rookie Gary Nolan at spring training camp in Tampa, Fla.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
MARCH 7, 1973: Joe Morgan and Bobby Tolan.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
APRIL 1976: Pete Rose during Cincinnati Reds spring training.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
1977: Rawly Eastwick, left, and Larry Shepard during Cincinnati Reds spring training.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
1977: Cincinnati Reds spring training.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
MARCH 2, 1977: Pete Rose sharpens his skills at table tennis in the clubhouse.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
MARCH 1978: Visitors watch batting practice during Cincinnati Reds spring training.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
MARCH 1978: Cincinnati Reds spring training.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
MARCH 6, 1978: Jack Billingham cleans out his locker at the Reds’ spring training headquarters.
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MARCH 12, 1978: Spectators line the roped-off edge of the ball field to watch Reds go through a routine.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
1979: Cincinnati Reds spring training.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
MARCH 18, 1979: Joe Morgan greets fans near the backstop before a recent exhibition game.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
1981: Johnny Bench signs autographs during Spring Training 1981.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
1981: Johnny Bench gives an interview during Spring Training 1981.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
MARCH 2, 1982: Cincinnati Reds manager John McNamara, right, talking baseball with Notre Dame head football coach Gerry Faust, left, as he visited the Reds’ spring training camp in Tampa, Fla. Richard Wagner, president and chief executive officer of the Reds, center, joined the discussion.
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MARCH 9, 1982: Jose Brito’s fastball is a fuzzy blur in the camera’s eye as it speeds plateward during a spring training workout in Tampa, Fla. Watching the Reds rookie are Charlie Leibrandto (left), Mike LaCross (51) and Rick O’Keeffe (58).
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MARCH 8, 1983: Johnny Bench , center, practices some casting in a giant Redsland mud puddle in Tampa. Looking on are catcher Steve Christmas, left, and pitcher Tommy Hume.
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FEBRUARY 26, 1984: Tony Perez returned to a familiar position, crashing line drives all over the Redsland spring training complex during the first workout for Cincinnati’s position players.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
MARCH 1984: Left to right: Mark Stowe, Jim Stockelman, and Mike Burkhart play cards in Redsland where they sleep during spring training.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
MARCH 1984: Running workout during Cincinnati Reds spring training.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
MARCH 10, 1984: Infielders Wade Rowden, Skeeter Barnes and Nick Esasky ham it up for the photographer during break in Reds’ spring training activities at Tampa. Barnes, a Cincinnatian, is up from Indianapolis; Rowden from Waterbury.
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FEBRUARY 22, 1986: Trainer Larry Starr (in shorts) leads the 28 Reds in camp through running drills. Among those in action are pitchers John Franco (31), Frank Pastore (35) and Ted Power (48), and player-manager Pete Rose (in dark jacket behind Rastore).
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MARCH 9, 1988: Tom Browning came to spring training with an attitude shaped by last year’s performance.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
MARCH 12, 1988: Pitching coach Scott Breeden shows starter Danny Jackson a couple of ways to grip the ball during spring training workouts in Florida.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
UNDATED: Cincinnati Reds player Chris Sabo signs autographs in Plant City, Florida during spring training.
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Look back at Reds spring training photos from the ’50s through the ’90s
Lou Piniella’s theory of hitting begins with the feet. Piniella was very active working with hitters during spring training in 1990. Here, he offers advice to catcher Terry McGriff.
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MARCH 23, 1990: Cincinnati Reds catcher Joe Oliver at spring training camp in Florida.
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MARCH 27, 1991: Glenn Braggs.
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February 17, 1996: Reds outfielder Eric Davis works on his bunting during batting practice on the first day of spring training in Plant City.
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February 21, 1996: Reds pitchers John Smiley, Dave Burba, and Trevor Wilson walk from the clubhouse to the field for warmups at spring training in Plant City.
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February 14, 1998: Reds players Damian Jackson, left, and Reggie Sanders play around during a pepper drill during the first day of Reds spring training workouts at the Sarasota Sports Complex.
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February 23, 1998: ESPN sports analyst Dick Vitale talks to Willie Greene as Vitale visited the Reds spring training camp in Sarasota.
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February 23, 1998: Gary Pagano, a server at the Cafe L’Europe restaurant in Sarasota, throws to a Reds player during a pepper game at the start of the Reds spring training camp. Pagano is living every baseball fan’s dream, being able to participate in the camp of a major league baseball team.
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February 27, 1998: Reds owner Marge Schott gets a hug from manager Jack McKeon at the Reds new spring training camp in Sarasota.
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March 14, 1998: Reds first baseman Eduardo Perez (left) and shortstop Barry Larkin (right) watch a potential home run from the batting cages at the Reds spring training camp in Sarasota.
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February 21, 1999: Reds pitchers work out with medicine balls, bouncing them of a wall at the Reds spring training facility in Sarasota.
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February 22, 1999: Reds pitcher Dennys Reyes slides during a drill at spring training camp in Sarasota.
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February 23, 1999: Reds infielder Pokey Reese gets a greeting from broadcaster Joe Nuxall at the Reds spring training facility in Sarasota.
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February 26, 1999: Reds infielder Aaron Boone checks out his batting position as he speaks to coach Buddy Bell at the Reds spring training facility in Sarasota.
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February 26, 1999: Reds infielder Barry Larkin smiles during warmups at the Reds spring training facility in Sarasota.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Top 5 reasons Cincinnati Reds can survive loss of Hunter Greene
