Main points
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Tom Lee said Bitcoin adoption could increase “200-fold” if global retirement savers made modest allocations.
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Lee predicts that the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is coming to an end.
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Tokenization and Ethereum’s growing role will define 2025.
Cryptocurrency strategist Tom Lee says Bitcoin adoption could grow “200x” from current levels, predicting that the long-standing four-year cycle in Bitcoin price action will be broken.
The bullish cryptocurrency leader believes that despite the weakness in the digital asset market, its recent downturn is almost over.
Speaking at Binance Blockchain Week, Lee said that “only 4.4 million Bitcoin wallets… hold more than $10,000,” while “nearly 900 million people around the world have more than $10,000 in retirement accounts.”
If Bitcoin ended up in these savings pools, he said, “adoption would increase 200 times.”
Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said the sector’s pullback since October contrasts with strength in traditional markets, noting that “gold is up 61% year to date” while the S&P 500 is “up nearly 20%.”
Lee said there has been a rise in pessimism across the market, which he described as “a tough run since October” and noted that “a lot of people…are ready to throw in the towel.”
Still, he said he believes “the best years are still ahead of us.”
In his speech, Lee noted that Bitcoin’s widely watched four-year cycle is no longer a reliable framework for the market.
He said the next few weeks may deviate from the historical pace.
Lee told the audience he believed “we will break Bitcoin’s four-year cycle.”
He also noted that recent market behavior differs significantly from past cycles, pointing to Bitcoin’s rise earlier this year and then its sharp reversal.
“Cryptocurrency prices were up 36% until October 10th, and then they plummeted,” he said.
Li said the downturn was driven less by cyclical halving dynamics and more by market structure.
“I personally think it has a lot to do with deleveraging,” he said, comparing the current environment to the period following the FTX collapse.
Lee told the crowd that tokenization will define 2025 and said financial institutions intend to move a wide range of assets onto blockchain infrastructure.
If you include real estate, he said, “Today’s financial products… [are] Wall Street wants “nearly a quadrillion dollars” of it to be put on-chain.
Stablecoins have become Ethereum’s “ChatGPT moment,” he said, showing institutions that “you can make a lot of money if you just tokenize dollars.”
