Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s announcement on the X that the AI5 chip was “nearly done” was met with weary skepticism after years of delayed timelines and unfulfilled promises.
What happened?
On January 17, Musk said AI5 was nearly complete and hinted that another, more powerful chip – AI6 – could be ready in just nine months.
“The goal is a nine-month design cycle,” Musk wrote. “Join us as we develop what I predict will be the most prolific AI chip in the world to date!”
Musk first revealed AI5 at the June 2024 shareholder meeting and claimed that the next generation of autonomous driving chips will be used in all Tesla electric vehicles and the humanoid robot Optimus in about 18 months. He said it will be 10 times more powerful than Hardware 4.
Although Tesla is not far away from the 18-month deadline, Electrek’s Fred Lambert warned consumers to take Musk’s announcement “with a grain of salt.”
Lambert pointed out: “Today’s news that the design is almost complete is in sharp contrast to his claim that the design is ‘complete’ as early as July 2025.” Musk also claimed at the 2024 annual shareholder meeting that Tesla “has just completed the design of AI5.”
Why is this important?
The emergence of self-driving electric vehicles is undoubtedly a milestone for technology enthusiasts and visionary dreamers, but self-driving electric vehicles also have important implications for everyday consumers. They could revolutionize transportation, making it cleaner, safer and more affordable.
Waymo — Alphabet’s Tesla’s rival in self-driving technology, at least in Musk’s view — has logged hundreds of millions of pure riding miles in four major U.S. cities. According to its safety data, Waymo’s self-driving electric vehicles cause 90% fewer serious injuries or worse collisions than regular human drivers.
However, by 2025, Tesla struggled to inspire confidence as sales lagged. Of course, Musk’s involvement in politics has diminished the brand’s reputation in the eyes of many. A series of high-profile robotaxi accidents have also raised concerns about the viability of Tesla’s self-driving technology, potentially undermining confidence in self-driving electric vehicle technology as a whole.
“If Tesla can’t get its software to run on the millions of HW3 and HW4 cars on the road today, does it really matter if AI5 is ‘nearly done’?” Lambert wrote. “…In summary, this does not appear to be Tesla’s solution to the unsupervised self-driving problem.”
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What are we doing about this?
The competitive EV market is another factor dampening enthusiasm for Tesla, but it’s good news if you’re interested in making your next car electric. If you want to own a vehicle with zero tailpipe emissions and low operating costs over its lifetime, you have a number of options.
At the same time, Lambert thinks Musk is unlikely to deliver on his promises to develop AI5, AI6, etc. — at least on the timeline he has laid out.
“Even consumer electronics giants like Apple operate on annual cycles that develop over years,” he wrote. “Don’t get me wrong, it’s exciting to see Tesla push the envelope on custom chips. However… AI5 feels like classic Musk over-optimism.”
Others are more pessimistic about Tesla.
“They don’t know how to grow things generation after generation. They just know how to work like a startup…and then try to keep running faster than the consequences,” one commenter said.
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