The US has been burning through weapons in Iran it could need in a war with China. Here are the latest estimates.

• Experts assess that the United States has used large quantities of critical munitions in its war with Iran.

• It has sufficient capabilities to handle the battle, they said, but “risks – which will last for many years – exist in future wars”.

• Many of these munitions are critical to countering China and take a long time to replenish.

Defense experts have warned that the United States’ use of critical munitions against Iran so frequently could put it at risk in future wars, particularly with China.

Two war experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a new report that the U.S. military made “significant use” of seven key munitions in 39 aerial and missile attacks against Iran before the fragile ceasefire took effect.

The U.S. military “has enough missiles to continue fighting this war under any possible circumstances,” they wrote, looking at ammunition inventories. “The risk – which will last for many years – is future wars.”

The question is how much ammo is used and how long it takes to replace them.

“These missiles are also critical to a potential conflict in the Western Pacific,” said Center for Strategic and International Studies researchers Mark Cancian and Chris Parker.

“Even before the Iran war, stockpiles were considered insufficient to fight a fight against a peer competitor. This shortage is even more acute now, and increasing stockpiles to a level sufficient to fight a war with China will take more time.”

Lower inventories would also affect supplies to Ukraine and its allies, and ultimately “the United States will be competing with countries that also want to replenish and expand their inventories,” they said.

Inventory depleted

Experts say these seven key munitions, whether long-range ground attack munitions or air defense and anti-missile munitions, “are very effective in this war and therefore expensive.” The report found that the United States may have consumed more than half of its prewar stockpiles of four of these munitions.

On the defense side, researchers estimate based on publicly available information, including Pentagon budget documents, that the United States had about 360 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors before the war but was depleted by previous conflicts and used about 190 to 290 during the war.

PAC-3 interceptors for the popular Patriot air defense system also saw high usage, with the United States using around 2,330 at the start of the war and a maximum of 1,430, although older versions may still exist.

Global demand for interceptor missiles surged, and there were concerns about their stocks even before the war. Ukraine has warned of severe shortages and expressed concern about how the U.S. use of nuclear weapons against Iran would affect its supplies.

Before the war, the United States had more than 400 ship-launched SM-3 interceptor missiles, and currently 130 to 250 are in use. SM-6 usage was low, with 370 out of approximately 1,160 used.

For offensive strikes, the United States had about 90 precision strike missiles (PrSM) before the war and has used an estimated 40 to 70. This is a newer munition that was put into combat for the first time in this conflict.

Another type of munition is the Tomahawk land-attack cruise missile, of which the report estimates the United States had more than 3,000 in stockpile before the Iran war and used more than 850 during the conflict.

The report said the United States had more than 4,000 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM), a long-range cruise missile, in its pre-war inventory and had used about 1,000 of them.

Very slow to replace them

The United States has been taking steps to increase production. The White House announced plans in March to quadruple production of some key weapons, and manufacturers also outlined increased production.

Lockheed Martin said it would increase annual production of THAAD interceptors from 96 to 400 over the next seven years, and Tomahawk manufacturer RTX said it would increase annual production to more than 1,000 and SM-6 to more than 500. There are also plans to increase production of Patriot PAC-3 interceptors by 2030.

Lockheed Martin has also increased production of PrSM and agreed to quadruple production.

“Until production increases, the United States will face choices about allocating production to meet demand,” the CSIS report warned.

The expansion depends largely on new funding from Congress, and production will still take time.

The report estimates the time it would take to replace weapons based on five-year average production rates. For JASSM, researchers estimate 48 months; for PAC-3, 42 months; and for THAAD, 53 months. The shortest was the Tomahawks, at only 47 months.

“Many of these systems are limited by production capacity and therefore have longer manufacturing lead times,” they said.

Franz-Stefan Gadi, a defense expert at the Center for a New American Security, also warned on Wednesday that it would take four to five years to replenish the U.S. inventory of precision munitions. Others also sounded the alarm, many even before the war began.

America could be vulnerable to future wars

Experts say the United States still has enough ammunition to sustain operations against Iran.

But many of the depleted munitions are critical to countering peer adversaries like China, especially ballistic missiles, where the United States has few other options.

For the seven critical munitions assessed, “future conflicts in the Western Pacific will also require significant munitions. Many allies and partners also use these systems, creating competition for output,” the researchers said.

In a war with China, the United States would need sufficient long-range strikes to overwhelm and penetrate China’s defenses, as well as powerful defenses to counter its vast missile arsenal.

The assessment, like others before it, said a high-intensity battle with China could deplete U.S. ammunition faster than a war with Iran.

The U.S. military could move assets back to the Pacific and rebuild inventories after the Iran war, “but it would take many years to restore depleted inventories and then reach ideal inventory levels.”

“Prewar inventories were already insufficient,” the Center for Strategic and International Studies report said. “Today’s levels will constrain U.S. actions if a future conflict occurs.”

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