The 2025-26 offseason has had its moments of rapid change, such as the domino effect we saw early on in the high-leverage relay market. But we’ve also seen it move slowly, and that’s been the case over the past few weeks. With the New Year just a few days away, the launch market is moving significantly slower than other markets.
The Toronto Blue Jays made their first splash the night before Thanksgiving, signing right-hander Dylan Seth to a seven-year, $210 million contract. Toronto then added right-hander Cody Ponce, who returned to the United States after a successful career in the KBO.
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But outside of Seth and Ponce, we’ve seen almost no changes in starting pitching. Most of the noteworthy starting pitching moves so far have involved teams retaining starters, with Sean Bieber opting to join the Blue Jays and Shota Imonaga and Brandon Woodruff accepting qualifying offers from the Cubs and Brewers, respectively.
The other two players returning home are Michael King, who re-signed with the Padres on a three-year, $75 million deal, and Merrill Kelly, who returned to the Diamondbacks on a two-year, $40 million deal.
But with only a few days left in December, most of the top starting pitchers in the free-agent class — such as Franber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Zach Gallen and Tatsuya Imai — are still available. While teams are interested and involved in these players, they are clearly taking their time.
The lack of movement in the starting pitching market could be due to a number of reasons.
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One is that the team wants to exhaust all options on the trade market before making a financial commitment to one of the top free-agent starters. If the team could move potential capital to bring in someone like Miami Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera or Washington Nationals left-hander Mackenzie Gore instead of spending $100 to $200 million to sign Suarez or Valdez, many would consider it a win.
We’ve seen a few trades of this nature, with the Boston Red Sox acquiring John Oviedo and Sonny Gray, the Houston Astros acquiring Mike Burrows, and the Baltimore Orioles paying a premium prospect price to acquire three-year Sean Baz.
Meanwhile, Tarik Skubal remains an enticing option for teams looking for the top option. While the Tigers would need a lot of money to move their ace, there’s no denying that any team with the potential capital and starting pitching needs would be very interested — even if it’s a one-year rental.
Another factor in this offseason is the uncertainty beyond next season, with the potential for a lockout once the collective bargaining agreement expires. With teams unsure of what the future holds, some may try to protect themselves by avoiding signing too many multi-year contracts after 2026.
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Even so, the next starting pitcher domino to fall is likely to be Imai, whose shooting window expires on January 2 at 5 p.m. ET. The 27-year-old right-hander from Japan is considered one of the best starters available, and his signing could spur market movement for Suarez and Valdez, as well as others like Gallen, Lucas Giolito and Nick Martinez.
Many contending teams still need starting pitchers, including the Cubs, Mets and Giants, so eventually this logjam will end. As the calendar moves into January, especially with Imai’s deadline looming, expect action in the starting pitching market to accelerate.
After all, pitchers only have about seven weeks left before spring training begins.
