A review of last year’s contributions on this topic is not worth reading.
While I was wrong about who would retain the UFC belt in 2025, I was absolutely certain who wouldn’t leave the year as champion.
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Apologies to Jon Jones and Juliana Pena.
In my defense, how do I know Ilia Topuria will retire from featherweight in the second month of 2025? Then again, who could have predicted that Islam Makhachev would be leaving at lightweight just a few months later? Of course, the two are still champions today, so was I really wrong? like, real Wrong? I could defend myself, but it would be an annoying display of my intelligence.
There’s no doubt that my predictions for 2026 will earn the wrath of more than just the UFC elite – a pain I’m willing to bear in the name of Uncrowned’s courageous journalism.
For those of you unfamiliar with hazard levels, let us bring you up to date.
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The current 11 UFC champions will fall into one of the following categories:
Immovable objects: The champion was considered untouchable.
Doubtful tips: It would be a surprise if the champ lost the belt.
Dangerous terrain: There’s a good chance the champion will lose his title.
Clear and present danger: The champion will be deposed.
Let the games begin.
immovable object
Hamzat Chimaev (middleweight champion)
He may not have had the most spectacular of inaugurations with a one-sided, laborious domination of Derikus du Plessis, but Kamzat Chimaev has finally reached the place we all knew he would one day reach: atop the UFC mountaintop.
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A look at the current middleweight rankings only strengthens 12’s belief that the explosive Chechen wrestler won’t be forced to leave his throne within the next 12 months. Nasoldine Imavov is currently in the lead and is expected to challenge for the middleweight title next, but another contender could emerge from February’s clash between Anthony Hernandez and Sean Strickland.
While there are some interesting clashes of styles within the title pair, it seems unlikely that any of the aforementioned players will dethrone “Borz.”
Valentina Shevchenko (women’s flyweight)
I no longer doubt Valentina Shevchenko. We all did it before she met Zhang Weili. Heck, some of us were doing it even before she defended Manon Fioro. In both instances, the most dominant female champion in UFC history made the fight look easy and her critics look easy. Very Stupid.
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Ben Fowlkes wrote an excellent article about her time competing in high-level martial arts competitions. It really drove home to me how lucky we were to witness her reign. Although her two losses to Amanda Nunes in 2016-17 removed her from many people’s “best” conversations, she is undoubtedly the Mount Rushmore of women’s MMA.
Shevchenko’s performance against Zhang in 2025 highlighted just how far apart the champion is from everyone else. Even though she is almost 38 years old, she is still performing well in this area now, and I expect this to continue into 2026.
Islam Makhachev (welterweight)
Ah yes, he appears again in the “Immovable Objects” segment, the greatest boxer on Earth, Islam Makhachev.
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I know what some of you are thinking. “Petesy, you looked like a fool for making this accurate prediction last year, why would you possibly do it again?”
Here’s the thing.
Islam Makhachev believes he will fight Kamaru Usman. I’m as big a fan of “The Nigerian Nightmare” as the next guy, but with just one win at welterweight in four years, it doesn’t feel like the kind of challenge that would put Makhachev in immediate danger.
While there are plenty of new title contenders in the division, such as Michael Morales, Ian Machado-Gary and Carlos Prates, none of them look like obvious candidates to hand the Dagestani champion his first loss since October 2015.
Is this Alexander Volkanovski’s last year as UFC champion?
(Chris Unger via Getty Images)
hint of doubt
Alexander Volkanovski (featherweight)
While Diego Lopez’s chances of dethroning the featherweight title at UFC 325 are slim as Alexander Volkanovski just defeated him nine months ago, the two-time defending champion has some interesting challenges on the horizon.
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It’s unclear whether Movsar Evloev or Lerone Murphy will get a shot at the title, but they are two undefeated rising stars who could put the 37-year-old champion back into the red. While Volkanovski is probably the bookies’ favorite should any fight take place, it doesn’t seem entirely unbelievable that anyone could take the belt away from him during his second stint as the division’s top dog.
Tom Aspinall (heavyweight)
While my faith in Tom Aspinall remains unwavering, there has been clear evidence that fans are beginning to have doubts ever since the dizzying tragedy of his first undisputed title defense against Cyril Gunn back in October.
Aspinall’s eyes aren’t entirely out of the woods, as he revealed in a recent interview with Uncrowned’s Ariel Helwani. With no return date in sight (no pun intended), new contenders have emerged like Waldo Cortez-Acosta, who would have previously been teased as a challenge to the Wigan heavyweights.
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Beyond that, Gunn surprised many with his effort on Aspinall before the game ended prematurely. Some believe Gane would have the advantage in the rematch, which would lead to even more interest in their match if they were to rematch in 2026.
Kayla Harrison (women’s bantamweight)
Most people wouldn’t be able to take three years off, return to the highest levels of the sport and be successful, but Amanda Nunes’ “best” status means we can’t in good faith throw Kayla Harrison entirely into the “immovable object” category.
When Georges St-Pierre returned to the UFC in 2017 after a four-year hiatus, many believed he saw Michael Bisping and a winnable fight right in front of him. By contrast, Nunes returns to face Harrison and it looks like they could have a legendary run of dominance similar to Nunes’ own.
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Why do we have any reason to doubt that Nunez can earn another much-lauded scalp with her brutal stopping power? She’s done it many times, and Ronda Rousey can attest to her ability to make once outstanding talents look mediocre.
My money is on the hot hand, as I firmly believe that Harrison’s knockout will invalidate “The Lioness” and prove that three years away from competition is too long.
Can Petr Yan come back in 2026?
(Ian Moore via Getty Images)
Dangerous terrain
Alex Pereira (light heavyweight)
Alex Pereira is the best light heavyweight in the world, but he seems to have no interest in sticking around to prove it. “Poatan” is one of the UFC’s modern superstars, and I don’t think anyone begrudges him the chance to challenge for the title in the third weight division.
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It’s unclear if his move to a new weight class is contingent on a fight with Jon Jones at the White House. In December, he claimed the fight was out of the question, giving him the chance to change the course of his 2026 campaign and his aspirations at heavyweight.
Peter Yan (bantamweight)
Petr Yan had a dominant win over Merab Dvalishvili in his 2025 performance, but despite this, he is in a precarious position as the two fighters who defeated him before could be the next to challenge for his title.
If Sean O’Malley beats Sun Yadong early next year, fans will Finally got a chance to see the rematch between “Suga” and “No Mercy”. The outcome of their three-round clash in October 2022 is still disputed, with O’Malley leaving the fight with a split decision nod, paving the way for him to win the title. In a true meritocracy, Dvalishvili would be guaranteed an immediate rematch, but if O’Malley can regain momentum to win, his star power will likely prevail.
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If a second round fight between Yan and O’Malley comes, I know a longer five-round fight will suit the Russian.
Ilya Topriya (lightweight)
Ilya Topriya’s timely return has been in doubt ever since he revealed that he would not be defending his title until further notice due to worrying personal issues. It’s a shame for UFC fans to see one of the sport’s most exciting stars sidelined, but his recent posts underscore the seriousness of the situation.
“El Matador” emerged primarily out of fear that personal issues would cause him to relinquish the title. He cited the legal process that would need to be completed when he announced his retirement from the sport, which could be a very lengthy process.
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In addition to this, many fans and media believe that Arman Tsarukyan’s grappling ability would pose a very serious threat to his title should he return before a title decision is forced.
“Sorry, Mackenzie. Let’s celebrate now.” — petty, perhaps.
(Jeff Bottari via Getty Images)
clear and present danger
Joshua Pham (flyweight)
Arguably the breakout star of 2025, the talented Joshua Van feels a little lost being ranked so low. But here’s the thing – he became champion without beating Alexander Pantoja.
The Brazilian should be back in action as soon as he’s ready to return from a rough elbow (and/or shoulder) injury. Pantoja is considered one of the best boxers in the world and the experience gap between him and the Myanmar talent is huge. Beyond that, due to the anomalous nature of the result, Pantoja aside, the only fighter in the top 10 in the flyweight division to have beaten Van is Brandon Royval. Despite his stunningly eye-catching style and astonishing progress in the sport, it’s still easy to feel unsure about the longevity of his first reign as flyweight champion.
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Mackenzie Dunn (women’s strawweight)
The only person more disappointed than Zhang Weili on the night she lost to Shevchenko was Mackenzie Dunn.
Why, you ask?
Well, because modern MMA queen Shevchenko dominated former strawweight champion Zhang, so naturally all Zhang had to do was return to her old 115-pound facility, which is currently overseen by Dunne.
Dunn is having another great year in 2025. However, she didn’t have to scorn the barrel of “Magnum” to get the gold medal. I expect Zhang to back off and prove his point, which doesn’t bode well for the jiu-jitsu phenom.
