It’s finally here. When people talk about March Madness, they are usually referring to the NCAA Tournament. Personally, I love conference tournament time just as much. In power conferences, you see hateful opponents attacking each other day in and day out. The bubble team is making a last-ditch effort. Big tournaments in the lower tiers are often filled with drama, with teams risking everything to lose to Duke in the first round.
So far, we’ve seen a fantastic Arch Madness finale, with favorite Belmont getting beaten 6-14 by Drake behind the woodshed, and UIC reaching the finals seeking its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2004 before falling to Northern Iowa, a team that’s no stranger to March games. As I write this, Preston Edmead hits a 3-pointer with 0.3 seconds left in overtime to win an incredibly entertaining game for Hofstra. In the Conference USA championship game, Jacksonville State beat UTEP with a buzzer-beater that caused one UTEP fan to throw a tantrum very similar to my 2-year-old:
What’s happening in Illinois this week? Illinois retained its spot as the final No. 2 seed after defeating the Big Ten’s two bottom teams last week. In my opinion, if Illinois wins on Friday, it will lock up the No. 2 seed. While Saturday’s game isn’t important to the committee, beating Michigan would be a statement, and could give Illinois a second or third No. 2 seed depending on where Houston, UConn and Michigan State finish in their respective tournaments. If Illinois loses its tournament opener on Friday, they could slip to the No. 3 seed if Iowa and/or Nebraska win on Friday.
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In the Big Ten, Ohio State and UCLA have locked up their tournament bids and are coming off strong runs this season with at least nine bids certain. USC was completely off the bubble down the stretch, leaving Indiana as the only Big Ten bubble team (my second team now). Indiana will likely need to beat the winner of Northwestern/Penn State and a second game against Purdue to have a decent chance. If they can somehow win Game 3 against Nebraska on Friday, that will really seal the deal.
Elsewhere around the country, that’s what’s worth watching in the bubble. Every team currently projected at line 10 or higher is locked in, barring an unprecedented number of bid-stealers. UCF needs to win a game to lock down a spot. The bottom four currently ranked are Virginia Commonwealth University, Texas State, Southern Methodist University and San Diego State University. VCU needs an A-10 title to retain its spot. Texas only needs to beat Mississippi State in the opener and they’ll likely advance. SMU, San Diego State and the top four outs should plan on winning at least two, maybe three games to make a case and pray there are no bid-stealers.
Tender stealers to watch out for: Miami (Ohio) needs to be in the tournament at this point if a very good Akron team beats them in the tournament and earns a spot. Utah State is the Mountain West tournament champion and St. Louis is the A-10 Conference tournament champion, both of which have teams on or below the bubble that should focus on securing their spots in automatic bids to avoid any anxiety come Sunday.
East (Washington, DC)
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Regional notes:
This is the lottery constituency. Six potential top-10 picks are in the area (as well as all top-three picks), with Cam Boozer (Duke), Keaton Wagler (Duh), Darin Peterson (Kansas State), Darius Acuff (Arkansas), Mikel Brown (Louisville) and AJ DiBanza (BYU) all vying for scouts’ eyes.
Illinois starts with the Tennessee Tigers, whose TSU logo looks like a legitimate rip-off of the LSU Tigers logo (unless TSU did it first, in which case, LSU, shame on you). Tennessee State’s victory was about winning the ball, a high turnover rate and the rebounding battle. Illinois won’t turn the ball over too much even under high pressure, and the Tigers don’t have a player taller than 6-foot-8, so rebounding will be an issue for them.
In the next round, BYU and North Carolina State were both talented second-round opponents, but both struggled down the stretch. I think if we get BYU, Underwood would cast Kylan Boswell as AJ Dybantsa. Kylan gives up a lot of size, and Dybantsa can hit a hard-hitting, contested mid-range jump shot better than almost anyone in the sport, so I expect Dybantsa to get his, but BYU’s defense is in shreds, so he’s going to have to get more than he gets if they want to turn things around.
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The Sweet Sixteen is a Big Ten rematch with another team that looked lost in March. A game against Purdue is a possibility because Purdue is the fifth seed in the Big Ten and Illinois and Purdue have played just one game this year. Their defense has gotten much worse since we last saw Keaton Wagler throw 46 points at Purdue. There’s a good chance they won’t get past Louisville.
In the Elite Eight, we draw the highest overall seed. Going further than Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament means something here, as passing them on the seeding line makes it more likely we’ll make it to the Arizona regional than a Duke team that looks unstoppable right now.
Midwest (Chicago)
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Regional notes:
Texas Tech recovered valiantly after losing All-American power forward JT Toppin for the season, winning its next three games, including one over Iowa State, but returned to earth to lose its final two games. They draw an in-state threat in Stephen F. Austin, who has a real chance in this matchup, while the Red Raiders have no interior scoring threat.
Wisconsin has proven it can beat some of the best teams in the country this year, with wins over Michigan State, Illinois, Michigan State and Purdue. They can score as well as anyone in the country, but do they have enough defense to break through Gonzaga? Winning this game is my ceiling for them because I don’t think they’re going to beat Houston or Michigan a second time.
West (San Jose)
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Regional notes:
UConn’s shocking loss to Marquette in the regular-season finale left the Huskies locked in a second-string defense and an unhinged Dan Hurley returning to the locker room early. He won the TCU-Miami Game, which featured three Big Ten players, TCU’s former Iowa guard Brock Harding, Miami’s Malik Reneau (Indiana) and Tre Donaldson.
In the top half, Arizona will either have a rematch with Alabama or a reunion with North Carolina. Arizona defeated the Crimson Tide 96-75 in a nonconference game earlier this year, becoming one of only four teams in the ’70s to maintain a strong offense. At North Carolina, center Henry Vissar spent the past two years in Tucson as a role player before developing into Caleb Wilson’s primary wingman. With Wilson out for the season, Vissar will need to play a starring role.
South (Houston)
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Regional notes:
UCLA’s game against Saint Louis was an 8-9 matchup between two teams going in opposite directions. St. Louis has looked untouchable for much of the A-10’s run, but has lost three games in the last three weeks, including a recent 86-57 defeat at George Mason University. Meanwhile, Mick Cronin and UCLA bounced back from a brutal Michigan road trip to finish the season 4-1, which included signature wins over Illinois and Nebraska. A UCLA win over UCLA would be the 8-1 upset I’m most likely to see in this iteration.
Speaking of upsets, this region has Miami (Ohio), South Florida and Liberty, all of whom I think are the most dangerous teams on their lines. Liberty will compete in in-state competition against an inexperienced Virginia team that may find this moment too big. St. John’s is actually the Big East regular season champion with a win over UConn, but I could see this offensively challenged team losing to a well-coached USF. I pray Miami (Ohio) draws an SEC team and beats them in the first round to quell Bruce Pearl’s nepotism lobby. In the meantime, his son and Auburn can enjoy an early send home from the NIT or The Crown.
Top four: New Mexico State, Indiana, Virginia Tech, Stanford
Next four out: Boise State, Auburn, Cal, Cincinnati
Conference Bid:
SEC: 10
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Top Ten: 9
Big 12:8
ACC:8
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
West Mountain: 2
Atlantic 10:2
