New England Patriots second-year quarterback Derek Meyer is having a great regular season. He led the Patriots to a 14-3 record and was one of the league’s most efficient pass rushers downfield, helping New England complete 69 explosive passes this year, second only to the Los Angeles Rams, and finished second in MVP voting behind Matthew Stafford. It was a dream season.
This turned into a nightmare in the playoffs.
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While Meyer and the Patriots advanced to Super Bowl X, New England’s advancement largely depended on New England’s defense and how things went in each of the first three postseason games. New England’s efficient, explosive passing game, which largely disappeared during New England’s run to the Super Bowl, was gone when the Patriots arrived in Santa Clara to take on the Seattle Seahawks and the best scoring defense in the NFL.
Instead, fans spent the fourth quarter searching if an NFL team had ever been eliminated from the Super Bowl.
So just how bad has Meyer been in the playoffs, and where does the Patriots go from here?
Let’s start by taking a look at how efficient the second-year quarterback was during the regular season. We’ve noted 69 explosive passes — defined as 20 yards or more in the air — which is a significant turnaround from a year ago when New England was near the bottom of the league. But, look at quarterback efficiency, determined by a combination of expected points added and above-expected completion percentage, and you’ll see that Meyer is really off the charts this season:
This is the type of chart you’re used to seeing from guys like Patrick Mahomes.
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Now, let’s look at the playoffs (excluding the Super Bowl):
It wasn’t Meyer who topped the rankings, but the quarterback he would face in Super Bowl X, Sam Darnold. But during New England’s three-game playoff run — over the Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans and Denver Broncos — his numbers dropped significantly.
Looking at more traditional statistics, you can also see the playoff decline. During the regular season, Meyer completed 71.9 percent of his passes for 4,393 yards, 31 touchdowns, and only eight interceptions, with an NFL passer rating of 113.5 (best in the league), a QBR of 77.1 (best in the league), a net yards per attempt of 7.78 (best in the league), and an adjusted net yards per attempt of 8.26 (again, best in the league).
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In the three playoff games before Super Bowl LX, Meyer completed 43 of 77 passes (55.8%) for 533 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. That’s good for a player who only had an 83.96 NFL passer rating, which is a far cry from what he put up in the regular season. He was also sacked a total of 15 times, one in every playoff game.
Then came Super Bowl X, where Meyer faced Seattle’s elite defense and completed 27 of 43 passes for 295 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions while being sacked twice.
When you add up his postseason performances, including the Super Bowl, you’ll see it’s not exactly one over the years:
Again, total EPA is just one metric, but Meyer’s production definitely declined in the playoffs.
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Of course, there is some context to consider on both sides of the coin. As has been widely discussed, New England faces a fairly easy schedule during the regular season. In fact, the Patriots had the easiest regular-season schedule for a team since the 1999 St. Louis Rams, and although that team went on to win a Super Bowl, New England couldn’t match it.
The situation in the playoffs is completely different. Between the Chargers, Texans, Broncos and finally the Seahawks, the Patriots faced four of the top ten scoring defenses in the league to become Seattle’s No. 1 team in Super Bowl X.
That would make the situation more difficult for any quarterback, not just Meyer.
How did these teams make Meyer’s life more difficult? pressure. According to the chart data, during the regular season pro football focusMeyer’s adjusted completion rate under pressure reached a league-high 72.4%, while his dropback rate was 37.9%.
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In three AFC playoff games, ACP dropped to 61.5%, and remember he was sacked 15 times?
The result is that the quarterback’s internal clock speeds up, and if you remember Super Bowl LX, you may remember Cris Collinsworth talking about Meyer’s internal clock throughout the game. As a quarterback, you come into every game with an expectation of how much time you’re going to have to put in based on route concepts, protection schemes, and any potential blitzes the defense will throw at you. But the more pressure you have in your pocket—constant, ongoing pressure—the faster the clock in your head ticks.
When you start speeding yourself up and playing artificially faster, things tend to fall apart.
Take New England’s win over the Texans, for example, where Meyer felt pressure early in the game and was unable to keep his feet under him when throwing, which fell well short of expectations:
Or this play from the AFC Championship Game, where he escaped pressure, was unsteady on his feet, and missed what would have been a touchdown pass to Ramond Stevenson:
Think of it as the “body hit” theory for quarterbacks. The more hits you take, the more pressure you take and the less comfortable you feel in the pocket. Perhaps the most puzzling part of this phenomenon? You still feel uncomfortable when you have time in your pocket
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As we saw, perhaps Meyer’s worst turnover in Super Bowl LX:
Of course, overreactions like this tend to happen after a game and the playoffs, especially after Meyer came so close to winning the MVP award. In the hours following Super Bowl X, questions began to arise, from whether he was actually battling a right shoulder injury more than he let on, to whether he was overrated, or questions about the offensive line. Those questions center on the left side of New England’s front five, with rookies Will Campbell and Jared Wilson, and especially at left tackle. Campbell was inconsistent during the regular season and things didn’t improve in the postseason as he returned from a knee injury.
According to chart data pro football focusCampbell gave up 11 pressures in three AFC playoff games.
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And then there’s Super Bowl X:
However, the answer may lie in the context above.
New England faces an easy regular-season schedule, which paves the way for Meyer’s dream season.
That dream turned into a nightmare as the Patriots faced four of the toughest teams in the league to defend.
