So You’re Thinking of Drafting a Round 1 Quarterback

Fernando Mendoza will be the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft later this month. Ty Simpson could also go in the first round. this will be 30^th Since Tony Banks became the first quarterback in the second round in 1996, at least one quarterback has gone in the first round every year. When there are so many first-rounders, finding a throughline connecting them all is impossible. But we can look for trends and takeaways from first-round quarterbacks. So, below, I’m going to look at every first-round quarterback drafted since the turn of the century and look for what we can learn and how to apply it to Mendoza, Simpson, and any other first-round quarterback we might see. (Also, for everything that follows, I view things as if the Giants drafted Eli Manning and the Chargers drafted Philip Rivers in 2004, even though Technically It was the opposite, with the trade being completed after the draft. )

First-round quarterbacks since 2000

Tally

Since 2000, 29 teams have drafted first-round quarterbacks, and a total of 77 quarterbacks have gone in the first round. Only the Cowboys, Seahawks and Saints have completely passed on a first-round quarterback.

By all accounts, the fastest transition was the Cardinals’ move from Josh Rosen in 2018 to Kyler Murray in 2019.

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When will they take over?

Some first-round quarterbacks start from day one. Others were brought in as development options or were stuck behind existing starters. If you consider a player to have started at least half the games during his year, 49 of our 77 first-rounders were rookie starters.

On the other hand, nine first-round quarterbacks this century have yet to start a game: Chad Pennington, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, JP Losman, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Brady Quinn, Jack Lock and JJ McCarthy. Three others (JaMarcus Russell, Patrick Mahomes, Jordan Love) started in a single game. On average, first-round quarterbacks start 9.6 games as a rookie. Among those who didn’t start at least half of their games as rookies:

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• 16 became a starter the following year.

• Five (Chad Pennington, Philip Rivers, JP Losman, Jason Campbell, Brady Quinn) became third-year starters.

• Three (Rex Grossman, Jordan Love, Aaron Rodgers) are fourth-year starters.

• Four (Johnny Manziel, Paxton Lynch, Trey Lance, Dwayne Haskins) have never been starters (or, if we’re being optimistic about Lance, haven’t been).

How is their team doing?

We have 49 quarterbacks who started at least half of their games in their first year. One of them — David Carr in 2002 — was drafted to an expansion team, so we can’t compare his sample to the previous year. That leaves us with 48 first-round quarterbacks starting as rookies. Teams that select a quarterback in the first round have an average winning percentage of .295 the year before that quarterback is selected. That’s 5.0 wins in a 17-game season. In the rookie’s starting year, that number climbed to .393, or 6.7 wins. Wins increased by 1.7 per season. Among our 48-team sample, 29 teams have improved their winning percentage year over year. Six people set identical records. That makes 13 teams’ records worse, from Kenny Pickett, who dropped the Steelers’ winning percentage from .559 to .529 (a .030-point difference) to Josh Freeman, who dropped the Buccaneers’ winning percentage from .563 to .188 (a .375-point difference). Eleven first-round quarterback starters made the playoffs in their first seasons:

• 2003 Kyle Boller, Baltimore Ravens

• 2004 Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

• 2008 Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

• 2008 Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

• 2009 Mark Sanchez, New York Jets

• 2012 Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

• 2012 Robert Griffin III, Washington

• 2021 Mac Jones, New England Patriots

• 2023 CJ Stroud, Houston Texans

• 2024 Jayden Daniels, Washington Commander

• 2024 Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Here’s the thing: Of the 11 teams that entered the playoffs with a rookie quarterback, nine saw their record drop significantly from two years before drafting a quarterback to one year ago. For example, the 2002 Steelers were 10-5-1. Their record fell to 6-10, which prompted them to draft Roethlisberger and go 15-1. The Colts had a record of 10-6 in 2010, lost Peyton Manning in 2011 with a record of 2-14, and used this opportunity to draft Andrew Luck, who had a record of 11-5.

The main exceptions: CJ Stroud took the Texans from .235 to .206 to .588 in his rookie year, and Bonix took the Broncos from .294 to .471 to .588 in his rookie year. Translation: After a bad season, you can make the playoffs. But more often than not, it’s because a bad season is just a blip on a good team, rather than (usually) a team getting a guy and letting him figure everything out.

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How long did it take for them to get better?

Taking a quarterback in the first round is often like going all-in for a poker player. You put your chips in the middle, and if it works out, great, but if it doesn’t, you’re kind of screwed. This is true whether or not you give the newcomer the job in the first place. So looking back at this century’s first-round quarterbacks, I’m curious how long it would take for a team to finish .500 or above again after spending money on a quarterback. The idea is that the .500 teams are typically the ones that show up in the “in the hunt” graph around Week 14, 15, and are enough to be considered relevant, if not necessarily “good”. to the chart:

(Seven teams — the Jets and Giants twice each, the Panthers, Falcons and Titans — haven’t finished above .500 since their one big spending spree, so their grades are being counted through 2025.) The vast majority of teams end up back at .500 or better within a few years of drafting a rookie quarterback, simply because the NFL tends to be closer to .500 teams in some way. But there are some clear exceptions. In 2002, the Lions added Joey Harrington and didn’t see a .500 mark again until 2011, their third year with Matthew Stafford. The Browns signed Brandon Weeden in 2012 and didn’t break their winning record until Baker Mayfield’s third season in 2020. Despite drafting Sam Darnold, Jets haven’t finished .500 or above since 2015 and Zach Wilson at that time.

Are these three teams the most incompetent teams in NFL history? Of course, of course. Are the Raiders, who almost locked up Fernando Mendoza this year, one of the most incompetent teams in history? Yes, sort of.

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But what about the top pick in the draft?

Okay, that’s all for round one. what does that mean. But not all first-rounders are the same, right? Equivalent to Kenny Pickett (20^th The No. 1 pick in 2022) only has so much help for Andrew Luck (the No. 1 pick in 2012). So let’s narrow our focus. Only top five quarterbacks. There are 37 members of this group this century, from Michael Vick in 2001 to Cam Ward last year. Nine of those were not first-year starters — interestingly, only three of the nine quarterbacks drafted in 2009 started in their first year, but 24 of the final 27 quarterbacks started in their first year. In other words, the team is growing impatient. Since JaMarcus Russell in 2007, only three top-five quarterbacks have not been the team’s starter as a rookie, and one of them (older Anthony Richardson in 2023) was destined to be the team’s starter if not for injury. In 2016, Jared Goff started seven games, falling short of our “starter” threshold. Only Trey Lance, the third overall pick in 2021, did not make the starting lineup as a rookie. But remember our 11 playoff rookie quarterbacks above? Six of them are top-five picks – Matt Ryan in 2008 (No. 3), Mark Sanchez in 2009 (No. 5), Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III in 2012 (No. 1 and 2), C.J. Stroud in 2023 (No. 2) and Jaden Daniels in 2024 (No. 2).

in conclusion

As I said at the beginning, when you have a sample of 77 quarterbacks over 26 years, you’re not going to find anything in common among all of them. That said, there are some highlights:

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• The quarterbacks who are now in the top five will start immediately. Exceptions are rare.

• A team that drafts a quarterback early will most likely become decent again in 2-3 years… because almost all NFL teams become “decent” in 2-3 years.

• A team with a first-round quarterback has about a 14 percent chance of making the playoffs — 11 out of 77 teams. Those teams that make the playoffs may have been doing pretty well the year before they hit rock bottom. (The Raiders are not eligible.)

• If you’re a quarterback, try not to get drafted by the Jets.

  • You probably already know this.