NAWASHA, Kenya (AP) — When Dickson Ngome first leased his farm in Lake Naivasha in Kenya’s Great Rift Valley in 2008, it was more than 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) from the coast. The farm covers 1.5 acres (0.6 hectares) of fertile land, where he grows vegetables and sells them at the local market.
At the time, the lake was receding and there were fears it might dry up completely. But since 2011, the coast has grown closer. This year’s rains started as early as September and continued for several months.
One morning in late October, Ngom and his family woke up to find their home and farm in the lake. Lake levels rose overnight, covering everything with about a foot of water.
“It looks like the lake is far away from our home,” Ngom’s wife, Rose Wafula, told The Associated Press. “One night we were shocked to find that our house was flooded. The water came from nowhere.”
Scientists say climate change is leading to increased rainfall
The couple and their four children had to leave their home and camp out on the first floor of a nearby abandoned school.
Rising water levels in Lake Naivasha have displaced about 5,000 people this year. Some scientists attribute the rise to increased rainfall due to climate change, although there may be other factors contributing to the steady increase in lake levels over the past decade.
The lake is a tourist hotspot and is surrounded by farms, mostly growing flowers, which gradually disappear into the water as the lake level rises.
Rising water levels are not limited to Naivasha: Kenya’s Lakes Baringo, Nakuru and Turkana – all in the Great Rift Valley – have been rising steadily for 15 years.
“The water levels in these lakes are almost beyond the highest they’ve ever been,” said Simon Onywell, who teaches environmental planning at Kenyatta University in Nairobi, Kenya’s capital.
Rising lake levels displace tens of thousands
A study last year in the Journal of Hydrology found that East Africa’s lakes increased in size by 71,822 square kilometers (27,730 square miles) between 2011 and 2023. This affects many people: by 2021, more than 75,000 families had been displaced in the Rift Valley region, according to a study commissioned that year by Kenya’s Ministry of Environment and the United Nations Development Program.
In Baringo, the submerged building that made headlines in 2020 and 2021 is still underwater.
“The water level in Lake Baringo has risen by almost 14 metres,” said Oniwere. “Everything is gone, completely gone. There are no buildings to be seen anymore, like the Block Hotel in Lake Baringo.”
Flower farms hit hard
Water levels in Lake Naivasha are also rising steadily, “swallowing three-quarters of some flower farms,” Oniville said.
According to Kenya’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, horticulture is Kenya’s main economic sector and will generate more than $1 billion in revenue by 2024 and account for 40% of EU rose sales.
Numerous studies have been done on the reasons behind rising lakes: 2021 study on rising lakes in Kenya
“Some researchers have proposed geological drivers, others have suggested causes such as planetary factors,” Muita said. “The Kenya Meteorological Service found that rising water levels were linked to changes in rainfall patterns and temperatures. When rainfall was sufficient, rising water levels coincided with increases in Rift Valley lake levels.”
Sedimentation is also a factor. “Based on the studies I’ve read, there’s a lot of sediment, especially from agricultural-related activities, flowing into these lakes,” Muita said.
The “chaos” created by the government many years ago
Naivasha’s official high water mark was set by the Riparian Society in 1906 at 1,892.8 meters (6,210 feet) above sea level, and is still used by surveyors today. That means this year’s floods are still nearly a meter (3 feet) below peak levels.
It also means that the Lake Naivasha Kihoto community inhabited by the Ngome people is located on riparian land – land below the high water mark that can only be owned by the government.
“This is a mess that the government set up in the late 1960s,” said Silas Wanjala, general manager of the Lake Naivasha Riparian Association, which was founded about 120 years ago and has kept meticulous records of lake levels ever since.
At that time, a farmer was granted a “temporary agricultural lease” in Kihoto, Wanjala said. Then the floods came and the farmers packed up and left, but the farm workers stayed on the land and later applied for a subdivision and were approved. Over the next 60 years or so, entire settlements developed on land that the Crown did not lease or sell.
Wanjala said this is not the first time it has been flooded. It is rare for water levels to rise this high. That’s little consolation for people displaced by this year’s floods, who now must risk confrontations with hippos to get home.
To support these individuals, the county is focusing its efforts where it is most needed.
“We are dealing with this issue urgently,” said Joyce Ncece, chief disaster management officer for Nakuru County, which oversees Lake Naivasha. “The county has provided trucks to help families relocate. We have been helping those who lack financial means pay their rent.”
Scientists like Onywere and Muita hope to find longer-term solutions. “Can we predict this so that we can build better infrastructure in areas that are less risky?” Oniville said.
Muita would like to see more concerted global efforts to combat climate change, as well as local, nature-based solutions centered on indigenous knowledge, such as “conservation agriculture with very limited disturbance of the land” to reduce sedimentation in lakes.
But none of this helps Ngome and Wavra, who still live at the school with their children. While the rest of the world looks forward to the holidays and New Year, their future is filled with uncertainty. Lake Naivasha’s continued rise over the past 15 years doesn’t bode well: They don’t know when or if their farms will return to dry land.
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