In sports betting, timing is everything.
One of the many reasons why football betting is so popular is because we have enough time between games to decide what we want to bet on and time our entry into the market in order to get the best results.
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That could be the case in the final Monday Night Football game of the regular season, as the Rams’ level of interest — the players they play and the games they might play — could be directly affected by the outcome of Sunday’s game. So while we normally publish this article on Monday morning, in order to give yourself the best chance of winning your bet, time is of the essence – and as this is a betting article, our publishing deadline should reflect this urgency.
Odds are given by Bette MGM.
The line is already changing, rising from -8.5 to -8 throughout the week and even dropping to -7.5 on some books.
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While many good bettors are worried about how Saturday’s results could impact Sunday’s games, the NFC West situation seems to be flying under the radar over Christmas.
Sure, some realize that if the Seahawks (-7 vs. Panthers) and 49ers (-3 vs. Bears) both win as favorites, they’ll be competing for the NFC West title and the division’s top seed in Week 18 (likely next Sunday night), but wondering what happens next for the Rams is next level thinking.
In short, they will be locked in as a wild-card team, and their final two games will determine their seeding from fifth to seventh. Sure, it’s something worth fighting for, but it’s not the same as working hard for a bye.
Despite having no control over whether they finish first in the league, the Rams are still the highest-rated team in betting markets. Quantitatively, based on past and present point differentials, if you gave the Rams a score out of 100, they would get a 75/100, no other team in the 1970s.
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Essentially, Los Angeles is more popular than any team on a neutral court. However, this is based on the expectation that the Rams will give their best effort in any given game. With less risk, the Rams’ expected level of play could be lower.
The first is through personnel. Davante Adams and any other players listed as questionable will likely be given another week to get healthy, and Sean McVay knows they can win their remaining two games without a full roster (although winning by double digits becomes more difficult).
The second is through game calls. Regardless of whether the Rams go to Carolina, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Green Bay or Chicago in the first round, they will be playing against a team and/or coaching staff that the Rams played for this season or last season. It seems like a waste to have anything new or different recorded in the last two games.
The third question is what they do with their fourth-quarter lead. Will the Rams be more interested in chasing points — calling deep, putting Matthew Stafford and key players in danger of extra hits — or will McVay take a more conservative approach, calling the run game and short passes to stall the clock?
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Basically, if the Rams play like a team in the 60s and not their top tier, the Falcons should have plenty of opportunities to make amends, even with a loss.
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Atlanta also has a say in the outcome, with many players and coaches fighting for their jobs next season. As a 7.5-point underdog at home, the Falcons don’t get much recognition in betting markets even for the league’s highest-ranked team. A 6-9 record and an early playoff berth would do it, but here’s a list of games Kirk Cousins started with both Bijan Robinson and Derek London available:
That’s it, that’s the list.
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Cousins isn’t the future (that should be Michael Penix Jr.), but he’s the better option to get the most out of the Falcons offense right now. Meanwhile, in a similar vein, the Falcons defense is as healthy as it was in Week 1, with only cornerback Mike Hughes questionable for Monday.
A healthy version of the Falcons were expected to be a playoff team before the season, but at least an average NFL team. In addition to a poor second half performance against the Seahawks, their performance reflects that, as they are 3-2 since Cousins took over for the injured Penix.
Regardless of what happens on Sunday, the Falcons should be willing to produce better than the market expects on Monday night, and with the stakes likely to be lower in Los Angeles, betting on that outcome now would be advisable against the spread.
Choice: Falcon +8
Player props
Quarterback Matthew Stafford’s longest pass completion is 38.5 yards (-115)
Cousins isn’t the only significant player to have appeared in Atlanta’s last five games. Defensive center DiBlo missed some time in the middle of the season, but in the five games since his return, the Falcons have allowed just two receptions of 35 yards or more on 173 opponent pass attempts (1.2 percent). At this ratio, if any opposing quarterback has 35 attempts, he has a 40% chance (implied odds of +150/-150) of throwing a deep pass.
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Of course, Stafford is no ordinary quarterback, but he has just four passes for 38 yards or more since the start of the season, three in four games. Three of those four players are headed to Pukanacua, and we’re betting on former Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris to make sure his defense is focused and doesn’t allow the Los Angeles star to be preoccupied in Atlanta’s secondary.
TE Kyle Pitts over 5.5 catches (+115)
Even with London back last week, Cousins didn’t stop getting the ball to Pitts, connecting on seven of his nine targets. That gives Pitts 31 catches in 39 games over Cousins’ past four games. If the Falcons trail, as the spread suggests, then Cousins should be busy and often looking for Pitts’ way.
WR Konata Mumpfield has 27.5 more receiving yards (-115)
With Adams missing last week’s game in Seattle, Munfield became Stafford’s de facto No. 2 receiver. Although Mampfield only had three catches for 40 yards, he still had eight targets, four times the seventh-round rookie’s season high. With Adams unlikely to play, Munfield should have enough targets to overcome this yardage total.
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touchdown anytime
TE Terrance Ferguson (+270)
Not that Ferguson, who scored last week, needs the extra narrative punch, but if part of the Rams’ plan to head into the playoffs at full speed is to get their young players confident, we could see another end zone target heading the rookie’s way. While Mampfield’s snaps are up without Adams, Ferguson has improved his red zone target grade without the league’s receiving touchdown leader because of his combination of size and athleticism.
TE Kyle Pitts (+200)
Let’s hope London can play, even if he’s still dealing with a lingering knee injury, which may be why he caught just three of eight targets for just 27 yards in Arizona last week.
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Why? Because London is one of the league’s best red zone receivers, it draws attention from opposing defenses, which opens up opportunities for other pass catchers. When you have another sizable option in Pitts, who doesn’t match up with any of the Rams’ safeties or linebackers, you don’t need to force the ball to London when he doubles in the red zone.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributors, Matt Russellexist window.
