The NFC North champion and second-seeded Chicago Bears will face the Los Angeles Rams in the divisional round on Sunday. The Bears trailed the Green Bay Packers 21-3 at halftime in the wild-card game, but came back to win 31-27. The Rams, a 10-point road favorite, defeated the feisty Carolina Panthers 34-31.
Is this the end of Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson’s fairy tale season? Can Matthew Stafford still have an old-fashioned playoff performance in cold weather?
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Ben Fawkes gathers insights from the oddsmakers on the game as our NFL handicapping team offers their favorite bets for Sunday’s game.
Odds are given by Bette MGM.
What are the oddsmakers saying?
“We opened the Rams at -4.5 and are currently at -3.5. The early money is on the Bears. The Rams are responding like they did against Carolina and are being tested, and it’s going to be a very cold game on Sunday night. The biggest thing we saw with the Bears was last week’s game betting. People were jumping on board with Chicago without hesitation.” — Thomas Gable, Director of Sports Betting at The Borgata
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“We’ve seen some good one-way action, especially on the Bears’ money line. I thought the Rams made some money late, but that wasn’t the case last week against the Packers. We started the Rams -4 and still sit at No. 4.” — Joey Feazel, director of NFL trades at Caesars Sportsbook
best choice
Matt Jacobs: The Rams won 34-31 in the final minute of the wild-card game on Saturday on a pass from Carolina quarterback Bryce Young. It was the second time in seven games that a quarterback failed to score multiple touchdowns against Los Angeles.
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Los Angeles is tasked this week with trying to contain hot Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, who has thrown exactly two touchdowns in six straight games. The 12 touchdown passes are just one of 20 scores Williams has caught in 11 games since the calendar turned to November. He scored multiple times in the air in eight of those games.
Granted, the weather forecast for Sunday afternoon in the Windy City isn’t too quarterback-friendly. Still, I managed to win with this bet last week, and I’m confident I’ll be back at the well again.
Betting: Caleb Williams over 1.5 passing TDs (+105)
Matt Russell: Sunday’s weather might be the best thing the Chicago defense can do. Kyler Gordon had a solid performance last Saturday, but he’s still not 100 percent, and the Bears lost a key player on defense in T.J. Edwards. That’s a bad combination for a Rams offense that’s willing to get physical.
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Whether it’s in the running game or attacking Pukanacua and a group of tight ends across the middle, the Rams should have no problem moving the ball down the field. Therefore, it would be unwise to take long throws into the wind with point safety Kevin Baird (the league leader in interceptions) in the backfield.
Matthew Stafford may be “overdone” on all of his other props, but long pass completion requires a combination of full coverage collapse and broken snaps, which we’d bet won’t happen with a slightly slower-moving team in the cold.
Betting: Matthew Stafford’s longest pass completion is under 37.5 yards (-115)
