As Britain’s crisis-hit prisons become overcrowded, ministers are pushing ahead with plans to electronically tag tens of thousands of criminals and punish them in the community.
But with the probation service in a permanent state of crisis – too few staff to deal with too many cases and the unit failing to meet 74 per cent of targets – there are growing concerns it is being “set up to fail”.
Chief Inspector of Probation Martin Jones said the reforms currently underway in Parliament under the Sentencing Bill were an “opportunity to transform our justice system”.
But he warned that if implemented incorrectly they risked a “collapse of public confidence in probation”, adding that labeling would not stop offenders from re-offending unless there were enough trained staff to help them turn their lives around.
“I think there’s a danger that unless the government thinks very, very carefully about how probation resources are deployed… we’re going to set up the probation service to fail, and that’s obviously unacceptable,” he told us. The Independent.
Unions representing embattled probation officers are also concerned that a £700m cash injection promised to meet extra demand will be swallowed up by expensive contracts with private label companies rather than being used to support frontline staff.
It comes after government spending watchdog the National Audit Office (NAO) found the service will still face a shortfall of 3,150 full-time staff next year even if it meets ambitious recruitment targets.
Meanwhile, police chiefs are bracing for a 6% spike in crime reported in the first year of the reforms, as they need £400m in extra funding to cope.
Funding to turn around services during crisis ‘insufficient’
Jones said all 30 probation delivery units he had inspected since being appointed as probation supervisor in January last year had been rated “inadequate” or “requires improvement”.
Furthermore, the probation service’s performance has deteriorated since it returned to public control in 2021, according to a shocking report published by the NAO last month.
The service is currently meeting only 26 per cent of targets set by His Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS), with overworked staff still exhausted from repeated early release schemes, which are putting huge pressure on them.
Probation chief inspector Martin Jones says the government could undermine public confidence in probation (PA)
NAPO national officer Tania Bassett, who represents thousands of probation officers, warned members there was “no confidence” the £700m in extra funding promised by 2028 would reach frontline services.
“We’re concerned that it will go — almost entirely — to private label companies and private IT companies to push AI forward,” she told us. The Independent.
“There has been absolutely no commitment to investment in frontline staff or sites – many of which are barely fit for purpose.
“I don’t think the money is going to be used where it’s desperately needed. I think it’s just going to put a bow on something that’s already falling apart.”
Peers on the House of Lords justice and home affairs committee deemed the government’s funding scheme “insufficient” as they raised questions about how staff would monitor up to 22,000 extra offenders expected to be flagged in the community.
Labels are not a panacea
In a letter to prisons minister Lord Timpson last month, peers said they had “serious concerns” about the ability of probation and private contractors to cope with rising numbers in this generation.
Serco was awarded a £200m tagging contract in England and Wales in 2023, despite having previously been fined £19.2m for charging the government to tag criminals who were dead, in jail or out of the country.
A Channel 4 investigation earlier this year found some criminals had not been flagged for weeks. Serco said it was improving its performance “rapidly”.
Peers warned that “nearly doubling” the number of people being flagged would be a “huge challenge” given the existing pressures on the system.
They wrote: “The £700m of funding for staff recruitment, development and retention over the next four years will almost certainly be insufficient.”
“We believe that without significant changes the system risks being overwhelmed and the probation service will fail.”
Electronic tags should not be seen as a ‘cure’, probation union warns (PA)
Ms Bassett agreed labeling could be a useful tool but said it “should never be seen as a panacea”.
“It can be helpful if used correctly, but it does not by itself provide any rehabilitation or address the causes of crime,” she added. “It has to be used in conjunction with other types of supervision.”
Mr Jones agreed that markings “just give you information” but would not stop someone from committing a crime.
He called for investment to focus on supporting frontline workers, strengthening drug treatment services and ensuring people leaving prison have a place to stay.
“We know that if someone has nowhere to live when they get out of prison, their likelihood of reoffending immediately doubles,” he added.
“If given a choice here, I would rather have more probation officers trained and able to do the very difficult job we ask them to do, working with people, understanding the risk they pose and getting them the help they need to turn their lives around.
“Labels play a role in this, but they are just a tool and ultimately, what you need is more probation officers to do this very difficult job.”
Recruiting probation officers is like ‘trying to fill a leaky bucket’
Mr Jones said overstretched staff had “showed heroism” in responding to recent early release schemes to ease prison overcrowding, which have seen prisoners released after serving just 40 per cent of their sentences.
He added: “You might have people working late into the night and into the weekend to make sure arrangements are as effective as possible under the circumstances.”
“I think we owe them a huge debt of gratitude for being part of that. But if you look beyond that success story, you’re just putting more pressure on people who are already overworked.”
More than 38,000 prisoners have been released early under emergency measures to ease overcrowding (Getty Images)
He said trying to fill vacancies in the probation service was like “trying to fill a leaky bucket” as workloads surged and staff continued to leave in droves. It has also resulted in an inexperienced workforce within the department, with in some offices newly qualified probation officers being the most senior staff on the team.
The government has pledged to recruit an additional 1,300 probation officers by April next year, but is still short of 3,150, according to the NAO report.
Given that it takes at least 19 months to train a probation officer, it will take a long time before new recruits are ready to handle a full caseload.
The inspector, who headed the parole board for nine years, believes the government needs to narrow the scope of some probation supervision to help them cope. This includes focusing on the first six months after release, the highest risk offenders and those trapped in destructive cycles of reoffending.
He urged ministers: “Don’t simply ask them [probation staff] Working harder and harder and longer because that’s one of the reasons I think the Probation Service is in permanent crisis because you’re always asking them to work twice as hard and sometimes if you do that you’re in trouble. “
Ms Bassett said her members were left “breathless” after HMPPS miscalculated how many staff it would need in 2024 to monitor more than 5,000 roles. As a result, many probation officers face performance reviews while being expected to complete unrealistic workloads.
Meanwhile, the union is still waiting for a response to its 12% wage demand for next year. They said a worker earning £30,000 a year faced a real wage cut of £21,060 as wages failed to keep pace with inflation.
Ms Bassett added: “If they don’t prioritize the workforce, there won’t be a workforce. Employees are undervalued and under-recognised.”
A spokesman for the Ministry of Justice said: “This government has inherited the probation service under enormous pressure, which places too great a burden on our hard-working staff.
“We are addressing this issue, recruiting 1,000 probation officers last year and planning to recruit at least 1,300 more by April.
“As part of our plan for change, we will also increase the probation budget by up to £700 million over the next three years and invest in new technology to reduce administrative work so staff can focus on reducing re-offending and helping to protect the public.”