In 2026, women’s basketball is at a critical moment in the history of the sport. The WNBA and the league’s players association are locked in tense labor negotiations, Unrivaled is looking to build on its debut, and a new entity, Project B, could impact the winter landscape. Interest in college basketball continues to surge, but as the NCAA tournament approaches, the sport doesn’t yet have a clear look.
Before too much happens, Competitor‘s Ben Pickman and Sabreena Merchant give their thoughts on what’s going to happen in the next 12 months. Here are our predictions for the WNBA, college basketball and women’s basketball business.
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Women’s National Basketball League
Businessman: Expansion teams will make playoffs
The Golden State Warriors set a new standard for expansion teams in 2025, becoming the first team to make the playoffs in their first season. Their example means early success will no longer be an anomaly in the WNBA. All but two veterans will enter free agency, giving the Toronto Tempo and Portland Flames ample opportunity to fill out their rosters with proven talent. Tempo hired a championship head coach in Sandy Brondello who wanted to compete and had never missed the playoffs as a head coach. The Flames brought in Valkyrie’s assistant general manager (Vanja Černivec), giving the Blazers a clearer idea of how to succeed immediately. A chaotic offseason of player movement could limit the league’s overall continuity, making it easier for new teams to stand out. Whether these teams should win right away instead of getting ready for the 2027 draft (when JuJu Watkins and Madison Booker could enter the WNBA) is an open question, but either Toronto or Portland would be good enough to be in the top eight in 2027.
Pickman: The first league MVP (Bucs?) will be crowned
For more than five years, the WNBA MVP award has essentially been reserved for specific players. Since 2018, Breanna Stewart or A’ja Wilson have captured the honor in six of eight seasons, with Jonquel Jones (2021) and Elena Delle Donne (2019) being the exceptions. But the league has too much talent to put Stewart or Wilson in contention for trophies again. I predict someone else will win for the first time.
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Napheesa Collier finished second in MVP voting the past two seasons, but her candidacy appeared to be derailed by an ankle injury in August. She would have been the most likely starter, but her injury could hamper her early season performance. Still, Alyssa Thomas has finished in the top five for four straight years and is ready to build on her success in her first season in Phoenix to help the Mercury reach the WNBA Finals. It seems to be a matter of when, not if, if Caitlin Clark and Paige Bueckers can capture their hometown league MVP award and end a streak that has lasted more than a decade without a guard winning the MVP award. Now, I choose Bucs.
college basketball
Pickman: UConn won’t repeat past mistakes
UConn dominated nearly every opponent in the first two months of the season. The Huskies are undefeated and have won 11 games by a margin of over 30 points. Their offense and defense both ranked in the top 10 in the country, with Azie Forde and Sarah Strong making the All-American team. However, I will beat UConn to win the 2026 national championship.
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First of all, history is on my side. No team has been able to repeat as champions since 2016 (although that was UConn), and only once — last year’s South Carolina — has a championship team even advanced to the next year’s championship. Texas has an impressive non-conference resume, beating two top-five opponents (South Carolina and UCLA) and three other top-15 teams (Baylor, UNC and Mississippi), and ranks second in net rating. UCLA has a roster filled with advanced talent looking to make up for its shortcomings in last season’s Final Four run. Michigan, South Carolina, LSU and Iowa State also look to be strong contenders with star power. I started the season picking UCLA to win the national championship and haven’t seen enough evidence to sway that.
Businessman: UConn will remain undefeated
Women’s college basketball has had 10 undefeated seasons, with UConn accounting for six. Geno Auriemma knows how to control the tempo of his team. The schedule also favors the Huskies. The Big East is in the midst of a down season, and UConn’s two toughest remaining opponents — Tennessee and Notre Dame — come to Storrs, Conn., this season. Unlike last season when the Huskies prepared for the tournament with Azzie Ford returning from injury and Sarah Strong learning the ropes as a freshman, this season’s team is strong and deep enough to withstand the rigors of an undefeated season. The Huskies’ defensive rating of 70.9 points allowed per 100 possessions was the program’s best since 2016 (an undefeated season). The 120.6 offensive rating was UConn’s best since 2018, when the school went undefeated in the regular season but lost at the buzzer in the Final Four.
No team has a duo as talented as Strong and Forde, both of whom have won championships. The Huskies’ depth is ridiculous, with Jana El-Alfie starting last season and beating first-team All-American Lauren Bates in the national semifinals but now averaging 11.4 minutes per game. With the emergence of Blanca Quiñonez, who ended December with five consecutive double-digit scoring games, UConn has all the tools it needs to defend its title.
sports career
Merchant: Project B doesn’t know how to play games
Project B is expected to host a series of two-week tournaments around the world in November. Several players have already signed, including multiple WNBA All-Star Nneka Ogwumike, Jonquel Jones, Jewell Loyd, Alyssa Thomas and Kelsey Mitchell. It doesn’t have a traditional basketball league model, doesn’t have enough players to fill the vacancies among its current 11 teams, and doesn’t have a hook for how or why fans should attend a traveling speaking event with no consistent schedule. The operations and funding of Project B are shrouded in secrecy, and some in the basketball community are skeptical of how it will be run. Unrivaled proved that basketball startups could succeed in new formats, but Project B had more problems.
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Given that this forecast is for 2026, this does not mean that Project B will never come to fruition. However, if it does happen, the first game will be delayed until at least 2027. WNBA labor uncertainty is a factor; if the league’s season is pushed back to November due to a late start date (and the FIBA World Cup in September), the availability of big-name players for Project B will be complicated.
Pickman: WNBA and union will reach agreement
In most years, predicting that the WNBA season would begin in May would be sauce on white rice, but this offseason has been less predictable. The WNBA and WNBPA are in intense negotiations to reach a new collective bargaining agreement. The players union voted last month to give its leadership the option to strike, with both sides trying to put pressure on the other through a 48-hour extension to terminate their contracts. Therefore, it is uncertain whether the WNBA season will start in mid-May as planned. However, given the explosive growth the league has experienced, it’s hard to believe either side would want to miss out. Holding back this unprecedented momentum would be a mistake, as both sides will eventually realize. Compromising on the salary structure will not be easy, but there is still time to reach a new contract without affecting the official start date of the regular season. The expansion draft, historic free agency and the college draft may all have to happen within weeks of each other — putting pressure on the league’s 15 teams — but come May, at least games will start on time.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
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