What the Astros should do with 3B Isaac Paredes has not only polarized fans, but has become a real point of contention within the franchise. Paredes is coming off the second-best statistical season of his career, but it’s also one year removed from his worst.
In his four mostly full seasons, Paredes has alternated between .739/.740 OPS seasons and 800+ OPS seasons. For his career, he is a .237 hitter with a .337 career OBP and a .766 career OPS.
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Paredes exceeded his career standards last season, batting .254 with an OBP of .352 and an OPS of .809. It should also be noted that before tearing his hamstring, Paredes was batting .259 with a .359 OBP and an OPS of .829, and his final numbers dipped slightly when he heroically attempted a one-leg game down the stretch.
Paredes re-established himself as a power bat at the senior position with two years of team control (Paredes is eligible as a Super 2 player, so he has 4 arbitration years and is entering Arbitration 3).
When Paredes went down on July 19, he was by far the Astros’ best hitter with a combination of power and plate discipline (OBP was about 100 points higher than his batting average), and the Astros had been hoping to bounce back as a team over the past few years but had struggled to do so.
As a result, Paredes’ MLB trade value is very strong. Paredes is set for about $10 million in arbitration this year and represents extremely high value at a position where performances like Paredes’ last season were uncommon.
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Chandler Roman reported yesterday that Paredes was close to making his Winter League debut, suggesting that Paredes is recovering from a hamstring injury ahead of schedule. It has been previously reported that Paredes is not expected to be at 100% entering spring training and may not be fully recovered by the start of the season. Paredes is now playing winter ball, leading to belief that Paredes may be closer to full health than previously thought and at or near 100 percent heading into spring training.
Not only does this mean Paredes can be healthy to play at 1B and 2B in February, but it also increases his trade value amid concerns that interested teams may have lingering injury issues.
Paredes’ injury last season also forced the then-No. 1 Astros to make trades to acquire more infielders. They traded for Ramon Urias, thinking he could play 2B and 3B, and then took advantage of the Twins’ sale to reacquire SS Carlos Correa, who agreed to switch to 3B.
Correa is a former Gold Glove guard who looked every bit the part at Gold Glove 3B in Houston. To be fair, Paredes isn’t exactly a defender on par with Correa. Last season, Paredes had -3 OAA – he was a below-average defender (not to be confused with “bad defender”, which he is not)
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Christian Walker is a three-time Arizona Gold Glove winner from 2022 to 2024. Despite his poor performance throughout the season, Walker did perform more in line with expectations in the second half of last season. While his second-half numbers weren’t particularly impressive, they were still pretty strong.
Last season, Walker hit .229 in the first half, with an OBP of .286, an OPS of .660, 12 HR, 47 RBI, and 377 PA (including 23 BB). In the second half, Walker hit .250 with a .312 OBP and .799 OPS, 15 HR, 41 RBI, and 263 PA (including 17 BB).
His first half, which was hampered by a hasty recovery from an oblique injury during spring training (the same injury sidelined him for more than two months last season in Arizona), cannot be measured but should be taken into account. It should also be taken into consideration that his second half is projected to hit 37 HR and 101 RBI over the course of the season (650 PA), which is exactly the kind of power output the Astros are hoping for behind Yordan Alvarez in last season’s lineup and now Yordan and Correa in this season’s lineup.
Walker’s glove also gave Correa, Paredes and Jeremy Pena a lot of confidence that they could let passes rip and Walker would catch them, which he did. Whether Paredes can do the same is unknown.
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As a result, the Astros find themselves in a tough spot. They like what Paredes does at the plate, they don’t know what kind of defense he’ll provide outside of 3B, and he’s clearly the most valuable hitter on the team besides Yordan Alvarez.
There’s an idea of ​​trading players when their value peaks, and it’s fair to assume Paredes has peaked this offseason. Considering the Astros have expressed a need for starting pitching, their cheap signings, and the recent trade of Mike Burrows that resulted in the loss of MiLB CF Jacob Melton (their No. 2 pick) and MiLB SP Anderson Brito (their No. 4 pick), the Astros’ best way to acquire an arm that can help replace Flamber Valdez (who was not re-signed in Houston) would be a trade involving Paredes. Even with the addition of another top prospect like Bryce Matthews, a trade centered around Christian Walker is unlikely to yield such a return. (Note that the Pirates brought in 3 major leaguers for Burrows, as the price of controllable SP is astronomical right now as far as prospects go).
Clearly, the team has a problem with too many players in the infield and not enough playing surface. Jose Altuve in the LF experiment failed completely, he either played 2B or DH. If Dana Brown’s recent comments about Yordan’s reduced time at LF are correct, there won’t be a lot of DH reps for anyone with a healthy Yordan Alvarez, which locks Altuve at 2B.
So it stands to reason that either Paredes or Walker will be the starting 1B, and one of them won’t be here when the calendar turns to February. Trading Paredes would yield huge returns. Trading Walker would require the Astros to pay part of his contract. For a team aware of its current position relative to the No. 1 tax line, taking a salary for a lower return seems like a worse decision than taking no money for a strong return for a position of need.
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I am by no means advocating that Walker is a better hitter or a better fit in the lineup than Paredes, but I am advocating that the Astros can get more value out of Paredes than Walker does. Acquiring a No. 2 young starter with team control (or a young SP with No. 2 upside) would absolutely require trading Paredes to reallocate his money/roster spot to that particular pitcher. Ideally, the pitchers would make less than Paredes and the team would see a net gain on their payroll, which could allow them to make another necessary move.
Paredes is the young player a team like Houston should be building around if they are, in fact, rebuilding. However, this team is not rebuilding, but retooling. They still have a roster capable of winning the AL West, they still have the highest payroll in the AL West, and if they can avoid the “IL of DOOM” style season they had a year ago, they should win the AL West.
Jim Crane insisted that the windows would always be open as long as he was around. If that happens without paying over $275 million in salary, Isaac Paredes would need to be traded now at his maximum value to get the pitching they need to finish 162 games and make the playoffs.
