Iran’s nuclear capabilities. its ballistic missiles. its agent. The ruling Islamic theocracy. Israel.
All of the above is part of the Trump administration’s shifting rationale for striking Iran and killing its leader without first seeking support from Congress and U.S. allies. There is much more that is unclear about the expanding war waged by the president and peace council leaders, including the exit strategy, timeline and who President Donald Trump wants to control Iran from what he calls the “sick people” who now rule it.
What sets the latest U.S.-Iran conflict apart from a host of others is that the Trump administration’s own officials appear to have little clarity or unity on the important question of the day: Why and why now?
“It’s standard practice to agree on the rationale before you start and then stick to a consistent message,” said David Schenker, a former Trump administration official now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “But it’s a challenge for this administration.”
On Wednesday, the White House described the Republican president’s decision to launch “Operation Epic Fury” as taking into account Iran’s past threats to the United States and “based on the facts that the President believes Iran does pose an imminent and direct threat to the United States of America.” Analysts said that was unclear.
The following is a selection of the Trump administration’s explanations for last week’s escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran into war.
Destroying Iran’s Nuclear Program Again
What they said after the US and Israel attacked Iran last summer:
— “Iran’s nuclear facilities have been completely destroyed!” — Trump’s post on Truth Social on June 24, 2025.
Intelligence analysis reportedly showed that Iran’s nuclear program was delayed by only a few months, and here’s what they said:
— “This is a false story that really should not be re-reported.” — Secretary of State Marco Rubio in an interview with Politico on June 25, 2025.
What they’ve said since the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei:
— “If we don’t do what we’re doing now, there’s going to be a nuclear war and they’re going to wipe out a lot of countries because, you know what? They’re all sick.” — Trump at the White House on Tuesday.
background:
Iran has long insisted its program was for peaceful purposes, but the United Nations nuclear watchdog and Western countries say Tehran had an organized nuclear weapons program until 2003.
The current status of the program remains a mystery as officials have not allowed the International Atomic Energy Agency access to the nuclear facility that has been bombed since June. That’s according to a confidential report distributed by regulators to member states and seen by The Associated Press on February 27.
Iran says it has not enriched uranium since June. Satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press showed new activity at two of the sites, suggesting Iran was trying to assess and possibly recycle the material.
Under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Iran is legally obliged to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency, but it suspended all cooperation after the war with Israel.
iranian ballistic missiles
What they said:
– “Iran has a large number of ballistic missiles, especially short-range ballistic missiles, which threaten the United States and our bases in the region, our partners in the region and all of our bases in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain.” – Rubio told reporters on February 25.
— “The regime already has missiles capable of striking Europe and our bases, both here and overseas, and will soon have missiles capable of reaching our beautiful America.” — Trump at the Medal of Honor ceremony at the White House on Monday.
— Iran “is building powerful missiles and drones to create a conventional shield against their nuclear blackmail ambitions.” — Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at a Pentagon news conference Monday.
background:
Iran has not admitted that it is seeking to build intercontinental ballistic missiles. The country currently imposes self-imposed restrictions on its ballistic missile program, limiting its range to 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles). This includes the entire Middle East and parts of Eastern Europe.
Trump administration officials told congressional staff in a private briefing on Sunday that U.S. intelligence did not indicate Iran was preparing to launch a preemptive strike against the United States. Instead, administration officials acknowledge the existence of a more general threat from Iran and its proxy forces.
“There are numerous reports that intelligence and military assessments do not indicate that Iran will launch a first attack,” said Nathan Rafati, senior Iran analyst at the Washington-based International Crisis Group. “My sense is that the opportunity is at least as important as the threat, certainly.”
Israel’s role
What they said:
— “We know Israel is going to take action. And we know if we don’t preempt (Iran) an attack, we’re going to suffer greater casualties.” — Rubio told reporters on Monday.
– “Israel is determined to take action here to defend itself, with or without U.S. support.” – House Speaker Mike Johnson, Republican of Louisiana, told reporters. He added that if that happened, U.S. “superb intelligence” indicated Iran would retaliate against U.S. assets. “If we wait, the consequences of our inaction could be devastating,” he said.
— “No,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday when asked whether Israel forced him to attack Iran. “If anything, I might force Israel to take action.”
background:
There is no indication that Israel was forced to cooperate with the United States in this attack.
On Wednesday, an Israeli military official who spoke on condition of anonymity described plans in lockstep between the United States and Israel. Three weeks before the attack, Israel understood the operation would lead to another confrontation with Iran and sent a team to the Pentagon, the official said. On Friday, the Israeli army deliberately hinted that troops would rest over the weekend, posting photos showing staff officers and senior commanders heading home for a Shabbat dinner.
Sources familiar with the matter told The Associated Press over the weekend that the sharing of information allowed the attack to be carried out in a daylight surprise attack hours later. Another Israeli military official said on Sunday that the final U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran came so quickly that they occurred almost simultaneously — three attacks on three locations within a minute — killing Khamenei and about 40 senior officials.
The first Israeli military official said on Wednesday that U.S. and Israeli war rooms were synchronized in real time during the attack to allow for quick adjustments.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed in a televised address that Israel carried out the attack in “full cooperation” with the United States
Trump both supports and opposes regime change in Iran. What now?
What they said:
— “If Iran follows through on their custom of shooting and violently killing peaceful protesters, the United States of America will come to the rescue. We are loaded and ready to go.” — On January 2, Trump spoke on Truth Social.
— “When we’re done, take over your government. It will be yours.” — Trump told the Iranians on “Truth Society” after the first attack.
— “This is not a so-called regime change war. But regimes do change, and the world is better because of it.” — Hegseth at the Pentagon on Monday.
background:
Regime change in Washington has a long and complicated history. Look at Vietnam, Panama, Nicaragua, Iraq and Afghanistan after September 11, 2001, and Venezuela a few weeks ago.
In 1953, the CIA helped orchestrate a coup in Iran that overthrew Iran’s democratically elected leaders and gave near-absolute power to Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. But as with the Shah who was overthrown in Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, regime change rarely goes as planned.
Part of the reason, as Trump acknowledged on Tuesday, is that this is fundamentally beyond Trump’s complete control.
“Most of the people we’re thinking of are dead,” he told reporters. “Now we have another group of people. Based on reports, they may have died as well. So, I guess a third wave is coming and soon we won’t know anyone.”
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Josef Federman and Julia Frankel in Jerusalem contributed to this report.
