Ohio State travels to Penn State to try to defeat the Nittany Lions in wrestling. No one has beaten Penn State in over six years, but the 2026 Buckeyes are the biggest threat they face during that stretch. What would it look like if the Buckeyes were to beat the Nittany Lions?
First, let’s point out what it takes to win. Winning six of the ten weight classes is a team win if no one earns bonus points. The Buckeyes can’t hope to keep Penn State away from extra points, especially in the Nittany Lions’ stronger weight class. But Ohio State had an extra-point opportunity or two of its own, and maybe the Buckeyes can limit Penn State to some extent. That’s where the road begins: win six games and don’t give up too many bonus points in the other four. So, how do we find six winnable games for the Buckeyes? Let’s take a look at them:
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No cooling required: 125, 133, 141 and heavyweights
Jesse Mendez should be the favorite at 141 pounds and should look to earn bonus points to help the team. The same goes for Nick Feldman, although the extra point potential against Cole Mirasola is a little less likely. 141 is Ohio State’s best weight class, while those two weight classes are Penn State’s weakest. Losing either of those two would mean a bad night for the Buckeyes.
The 125-pound and 133-pound matchups are basically a toss-up. Nick Buzakis and Luke Lilledal are both undefeated this season and are ranked No. 1 and No. 2. This will likely be a preview of the first of three games between the two — who are expected to face off in the Big Ten finals and the NCAA tournament finals. The same could be said for Ben Davino vs. Marcus Blaze. The two are also undefeated this year and this will be their first official meeting since high school (they have faced off at international trials and other amateur tournaments).
It’s also worth noting that Lilledal was outplayed by Brendan McCrone in this game last season. McCrone remains on Ohio State’s roster at 125 pounds, but due to Buzakis’ success at 125 pounds this year, he was moved to the backup spot.
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Where can I find the other two wins?
Now comes the hard part. Are there two more potential wins for the Buckeyes on this list? The simple answer is…it’s hard to see. The 157-pound class is expected to be the real deal, as the Buckeyes have No. 1 wrestler Brandon Cannon. However, Cannon hasn’t wrestled in three weeks and is not listed as a possibility in Ohio State’s official preview. The Buckeyes don’t have many good options at this weight class. Honestly, the coaches are probably more worried about avoiding dropping points than thinking about who on the roster can beat P.J. Duke.
165 pounds is another danger spot for Ohio State. Paddy Gallagher is a solid enough wrestler that he might win a few matches in the NCAA, but it would be an unimaginable surprise if he beat Mitchell Mesenbrink.
These are the two weakest weight classes on the Buckeyes’ roster. They have had strong contenders in the last four tournaments. The problem with trying to pull off an upset is that Penn State has the No. 1 wrestler in the country in every weight class. Not all No. 1 picks are created equal, though, and it wouldn’t be as amazing if the Buckeyes were able to cause chaos at 149 or 174 pounds. Of course, winning at 184 pounds would feel pretty sweet, considering No. 1 Rocco Welsh was playing for the Buckeyes in 2024 (he actually made the NCAA Tournament finals as a freshman) before redshirting last year and then transferring.
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So what are the chances of being upset? Not that high. Take about six wins, and don’t give up too many bonus points on four losses (or get some bonus points yourself to make up for it). But none of the Buckeyes’ four most winnable games have been clinched, and even one more win would be a sizable upset.
For the first time in years, you can’t assume Penn State will win a game before taking the field. This in itself is an important milestone. In reality, getting out of trouble isn’t easy, nor is it possible – but it’s definitely not impossible.
This article originally appeared on Buckeye Line: Ohio State vs. Penn State Wrestling Preview: How Buckeyes Can Win
