NFL Draft: The quarterback market is already thinning out

As we discussed earlier this week, the Green Bay Packers don’t have many absolute needs this offseason. Could the team use an infusion of talent in the draft? That’s always the case, but there are few positions that scream “absolute need,” with the primary exception being quarterback, as the Packers are unlikely to re-sign quarterback Malik Willis — given his projected earnings range of $5 million to $8 million per year.

For example, I can see teams adding talent in the cornerback and defensive tackle rooms, but I can also see teams saying, “Hey, we have these NFL-caliber players on cheap contracts; why are we actively trying to walk away from these deals?” The same can’t be said at the quarterback position.

advertise

That’s why I want to bring your attention to what’s happening in the current NFL draft landscape, because it will almost certainly impact Green Bay come April. I wouldn’t bring this up if it wasn’t relevant: A lot of quarterbacks plan to return to college football.

So far, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers (considered a first-round pick) and USC’s Jayden Maiava (considered a second-round pick) have said they will return to their respective teams in 2026. The same goes for Texas’ Arch Manning, though, which has been the expectation this year.

Beyond that, Cincinnati’s Bendan Sorsby is a near-top-100 player who is entering the transfer portal, awaiting feedback from the NFL. Mississippi’s Trinidad Chambliss, technically a senior in the class, also submitted a waiver to the NCAA so that he would be eligible to retroactively redshirt a year and play one more season of college football.

After talking with scouts, there seems to be a consensus that Oklahoma State’s John Martel will also return to school this year, as he was pretty split before and after wrist surgery. Before surgery, Martel completed 95 of 141 passes (67 percent) for 1,215 yards (8.6 yards per carry), six touchdowns and three interceptions for an adjusted yards per attempt of 8.5 yards. Since the injury, he has completed just 126 of 215 passes (59 percent) for 1,363 yards (6.3 yards per carry), six touchdowns and seven interceptions, for an adjusted 5.4 yards per attempt.

See also  Microsoft investigating outage affecting Microsoft 365, Outlook

advertise

With all of these players returning, where does that leave the Packers, who will almost certainly be trying to lock down their next backup quarterback in the draft? Let’s take a look.

Underclassmen

Of that group, the only sure thing that scouts think will definitely declare is Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza. Oregon State’s Dante Moore is rumored to be leaning toward returning to Eugene, but he also made it clear that his decision is undecided. Maybe a successful playoff run could change everything, but the Packers can’t draft him anyway. However, Moore’s exclusion or inclusion will further impact other parts of the quarterback market in the draft.

Alabama’s Ty Simpson has had an up-and-down season, so scouts don’t know if the NFL’s feedback will push Simpson into the class or rule him out. Like Moore, his future may depend on how the Crimson Tide perform in the postseason.

advertise

The real X-factor in the class is Duke’s Darian Mensah, who not only won the ACC this year after transferring from Tulane, but also displays some Jordan Love-like traits. He is now considering entering the NFL draft, and if he does declare for the draft, expect him to be a player on the rise quickly as the media captures what scouts already know. Plus, get ready for the Love comp coming during draft season. This is what I keep repeating.

–

So, if the underclassmen don’t come out, who will Green Bay and the rest of the NFL choose? Well, here are the top 200 seniors currently ranked by the consensus committee (historically, only the top 150 players are truly absolute upset draft locks).

elderly

  • #39 Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

  • #98 Cade Klubnick, Clemson

  • #133 Drew Allar, Penn State

  • #176 Tyron Green, Arkansas

  • #199 Sawyer Robertson, Baylor

advertise

This isn’t a deep senior quarterback class (or an entire class, outside of positions like tight end and off-ball linebacker) for every scout. If the underclassmen (minus Mendoza) don’t replenish this crop, there will likely only be seven or so quarterbacks available come April, which will almost certainly drive up demand.

See also  Watch NASCAR star Joey Logano snow drift a 1924 Model T

Here’s your quick analysis of the senior quarterbacks available to be drafted.

Garrett Nussmeier

While Nussmeier isn’t physically gifted, he is a good handler and his father, Doug, is the offensive coordinator for the New Orleans Saints. The under-6-foot-2 quarterback played two years at LSU but was benched at the end of the 2025 season after battling an abdominal injury that plagued him all season.

advertise

Cade Krubnick

I don’t think anyone will draft him as the quarterback of the future, but Klubnik can fill a high-end backup role in the NFL. The former super recruit never took the next step at the college level, and the decline of Clemson’s program didn’t help. He started three years with the Tigers, scoring 73 touchdowns and 24 interceptions. He can also move around a bit.

Carson Baker

Right now, the scouting community is very divided on Baker. Some believe the Georgia transfer has a chance to be a starter, much like Tyler Shaw was last draft, while others see him as a backup who doesn’t possess elite traits and can’t create much outside of structure. Baker’s performance has been poor when he’s out, as was the case with his four interceptions against Louisville.

advertise

Drew Allar

Alar was considered a potential first-round pick last year, though he never really put it together during his junior season. This year, he went 3-3 on a Penn State team that was hungry for a national championship, but his production declined and he suffered a season-ending ankle injury after a five-game layoff that would have allowed him to redshirt and return to college football. It’s unclear whether he will be ready to participate in rookie minicamp immediately following the draft.

Tyron Green

If you’re looking for someone close to Malik Willis, Green had 2,403 rushing yards in college (sacks included in rushing yards at the college level) and 35 touchdowns. The Boise State transfer was somewhat of a Dennis Dickerson-type player, who stayed in the league for seven years and was drafted in the fifth round despite a torn ACL. Green is nearly 6-foot-6, 235 pounds and is expected to run at least 4.5 seconds at the combine.

See also  Dana White dismisses ‘total BS’ McGregor vs Covington ‘leak’ ahead of UFC White House

advertise

Sawyer Robertson

The Mississippi State quarterback is kind of a variation on Bo Nix. He’s not the most accurate quarterback or the quickest to get things done, but he does have talent in his arm and legs. Depending on whether you view Knicks as a derogatory statement or a compliment, you may dislike or like him. His career record at the collegiate level is 13-14.

–

In short, the Packers will have options in April, but they won’t have many quarterbacks to choose from. With the underclassmen returning, that leaves something of a void at the position, which could mean these upperclassmen will be available a little earlier than expected (much like last year’s defensive tackles).

advertise

If Green Bay wants to find its next backup in the draft (which they may need to take into consideration given the 2026 salary cap situation), don’t be surprised if they end up using a third- or fourth-round pick at the position so they can avoid the chaos Jordan Love had to go through when he was promoted to the team’s starter.

Remember, it took the Packers three different draft picks to draft Malik Willis. After swinging and missing out on draft picks Sean Clifford and Michael Pratt, they only traded Willis to a two-year deal instead of his four-year rookie deal. This approach worked when Green Bay was in the midst of a full rebuild, but faced with years of cap crunch, the Packers couldn’t afford to draft three quarterbacks on Day 3 rather than bite the bullet and draft in the middle rounds, even if the team lost its first-round pick. If anything, not having his own 2027 first-round pick only makes the backup quarterback position even more important to the team.

Spread the love

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *