The start of the holidays, the turn of the new year, and the perfect timing for fast lane to the All-Star Game is one of my favorite parts of the NBA regular season. This is a true test of a team’s identity. The league knows who they are and they have to find a way to continue producing.
For rookies, this is the time of year when you start to feel the impact they bring to the team every night. You start to see what happens to their teams when they can’t reach the same level of production. There’s also a rookie wall lurking around the corner, with a schedule ready to knock on your door on any given night.
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While rookies will need to make adjustments, trust in the skills that earned them their roles in the first place. Let’s see how the top prospects fare as the new year begins.
1. Cooper Flagg, Mavericks
Flagg leads the Mavericks in total points, rebounds, assists and steals and is the only rookie to finish in the top three in those categories. His game continues to improve, but what stands out the most is his consistent confidence in his offensive abilities night in and night out.
With every dangling dribble or hesitation, Flagg showed a greater feel for how to get to his spots. Giving him not just the vision to read defenses in space, but the confidence to be ready for a pull-up or a breakaway. Dribbling handoffs can lead to catching the ball, hugging the ball, quick glances, and attacking when the defense is off balance. The league hasn’t quite caught up with the intensity of his left-handed drive, which he excels at in the high pick-and-roll. There’s a reason the Mavericks are handing over the wheel.
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2. Con Knuppel, Hornets
As of this writing, only three players in the NBA have made 130 or more three-pointers. Donovan Mitchell (133), Stephen Curry (132) and Knuupel (130). Speaking of Curry, Knuupel has broken Curry’s rookie record of scoring more than 20 points on 50/40/90 field goals (12 games).
Make no mistake, these 3-pointers weren’t all catch-and-shoot types. Knuupel knows how to create space for himself, using fake shots to get out of the way, or maybe just pulling up regardless of what the defense is doing. Coupled with his consistent willingness to drive, one begins to understand how he keeps defenses off-balance and why he had such a strong performance as a rookie.
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3. VJ Edgecombe, 76ers
Impact isn’t always valued in rookie campaigns. Despite the highs and lows, there is no doubt that Edgecomb has been helpful to the 76ers this season. His performance has been key as the team deals with injuries, and we’ve reached a point where not only are the Sixers going straight into the playoffs, but they’re doing it because of how well Edgecomb performs on a nightly basis.
This season, Philadelphia is 8-2 when Edgecomb scores 20 or more points and 7-1 when Edgecomb and Tyrese Maxey both score 20 or more points. The return of his shooting has helped, but he’s also shown more comfort and connection with Joel Embiid and Paul George as they return to form. Keep an eye on Edgecomb’s development in the pick-and-roll with Embiid and how the Sixers will use him as a screener for Maxey to open up more floor space for Maxey.
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4. Cedric Cowherd, Grizzlies
Sometimes in life, it comes down to finding a way to contribute and be productive even when you’re not exactly at your best. Three-point field goal percentage dropped again, from 30.7 percent (23 of 75) in November to 27.7 percent (13 of 47) in December. If I told you that he shot 50.8% from the field, would you believe me? That A three-pointer? (Spoiler alert: He did.)
His adjustments are to attack in transition, find gaps when space is stretched on the perimeter, and attack in the half court. The result was 70 percent shooting within 8 feet (42 within 60 feet). While you’d like to see the full package, problem solving and self-awareness often serve young players well in the long run.
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5. Derek Quinn, Pelicans
Quinn leads all rookies with 153 assists, and his passing continues to set the stage for a strong season. He has been a bright spot for the Pelicans this season. But one thing that impressed me was the Queen’s driving abilities.
The Pelicans mix in more reverse pick-and-rolls, providing guard coverage for Quinn as he drives the ball. What you feel in his drives is not speed but skill: the ability to control the ball in tight spaces, the ability to occupy space when there is an opening, the clever and flexible footwork that acts as a prelude to the shoulders on your chest, or the spinning moves that throw you off balance. Defensively, his primary efforts are often fine, but his second efforts leave opportunities open.
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6. Dylan Harper, Spurs
Harper’s drive remains consistent; he averaged 10.5 drives per game in the Spurs’ three-guard offense in December, according to NBA tracking data. Production About Those drives are why he took a hit, with 40 of his 58 shots in December coming from the penalty area and 18 of his 73 shots in all other areas.
The mentality, mentality and technique remain the same, so it may be a case of needing to see the ball go through the hoop. You really want to avoid a world where the defense helps you out when you get distance, daring you to shoot and staying home on your drives.
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7. Jeremiah Fears, Pelicans
Fiers’ rookie season was marked by a series of (somewhat) surprisingly solid performances, but a streak of 21 straight games with 10 or more points has turned into single-digit scoring in seven of the last 15 games. That’s nothing new for rookies as teams try to adjust, but the visual feel is different when the score involves you in the dance.
The lack of fear hasn’t changed, but teams are more willing to use size and length against him; mix in post players and switches in pick-and-rolls to disrupt his rhythm; help eliminate driving lanes; and try to compete. Fiers’ shooting didn’t slow things down. The upside of being fearful and confident is that it’s safe to assume the microwave will reheat.
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8. Yegor Dumin, Nets
Du Ming made the second-most three-pointers among rookies this season (72) and the most in 30 games in Nets history. He’s shooting 41.1 percent from three over the past 15 games and has made three or more three-pointers in five of the past seven games. This makes his offense more confident. Teams will still look to pressure him and be physical, but they won’t hesitate to let him fly when there’s space.
His assist volume isn’t high, but the placement and timing of his passing ability has shown up on film. The improvement work as a weakside defender also stands out to me in the context of Brooklyn.
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9. Maxime Leno, Kings
In December, Leno averaged 15.5 points per game (fourth among rookies), 80 field goals (tied for second), 9.3 rebounds per game (first among rookies), and 3 offensive rebounds per game (first among rookies).
He does a great job getting into dunk position, trying to get into space when defenders help, but more importantly, putting him in great position to attack the glass. He’s at his best in the pick-and-roll when he works to set up, make solid contact and stay in view of the ball carrier for pocket passes.
10. Caleb Love, Trail Blazers
During this period of basketball games, Love’s shooting percentage improved. The Trail Blazers guard has made two or more 3-pointers in nine straight games and has made three or more 3-pointers in six of the last nine games. But more important to the Blazers is his impact on both ends of the floor.
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Love provides energy and effort, is ready to pressure the ball all over the court and is willing to fly around defensively. There’s also poise and composure in the way he changes pace when in possession. The Trail Blazers are 9-4 this season when Love has played more than 25 minutes.
Honorable mentions: Ryan Kalkbrenner, Hornets; Trey Johnson, Wizards; Colin Murray-Boyles, Raptors; Ryan Nembhard, Mavericks; Hugo Gonzalez, Celtics
