With multiple teams wrapping up Game 28 of the NBA season on Thursday night, we’re officially one-third of the way through the season, so after the league crowns its Cup champions on Tuesday, what better time to take stock of an MVP race that’s as stacked with top talent as ever?
The championship picture becomes clearer, with the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder (24-2) remaining the clear favorite. They are followed by a handful of teams in the West who are still trying to convince themselves that they can win four games in the series against a team that has lost two all season, namely the Denver Nuggets (19-6), San Antonio Spurs (18-7), Los Angeles Lakers (18-7) and Houston Rockets (16-7).
(Bruno Ruby/Yahoo Sports Illustration)
In the Eastern Conference, the Detroit Pistons (21-5) and the New York Knicks (18-7) are the only teams with contender status, and the MVP discussion reflects both sides’ standings at the top of the standings.
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Also remember that Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is nursing a calf injury, will miss his 11th game of the season on Thursday and will be ineligible for the award as long as he misses 17 games. (Victor Wembanyama also missed most of the game, but at least he was back on the court.)
Let’s do this.
Honorable Mention: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks; Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics; Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors; Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves; Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers; Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers; Alperon Cengun, Houston Rockets.
6. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
As the best player on the first team in the East, Cunningham deserves to be mentioned in this conversation. The Pistons were a surprising No. 1 seed simply because we had such high expectations for the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers, and Cunningham was the driving force behind them. Indeed. He’s one of the league’s leaders in driving ability, constantly breaking out of his position where he can beat a smaller defender, find Jalen Duren rolling toward the rim, or pass the ball to a shooter. He beats you in many ways.
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If there’s anything to nitpick, it’s that Cunningham was slightly more efficient on the field last season, when he finished seventh in MVP discussions. He averaged 6.4 three-pointers per game and shot 32.7% from the field, down from his career-high 35.6% last season. Even at his best, he was a league-average shooter. It’s the final piece of the basketball puzzle that’s almost as complete as anyone else’s in the league.
5. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
We praise Wembanyama in every possible way. As a 7-foot-4 athlete, he is able to do things on the basketball court that others simply cannot do. He can score inside and out and outscore everyone, but what really sets him apart is his defense. His 8-foot wingspan nearly blocks out the sun.
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The Spurs allowed 104.3 points per 100 possessions with Wembanyama on the court, which would be second only to the Western Conference-leading Thunder if calculated on average defensively over the entire season. When he’s not on the floor, the Spurs allow 117.1 points per 100 possessions, a bottom-10 mark. In other words, put Wembanya on the floor and he’ll turn you into an elite defensive player.
Offensively, that’s not the case, but the Spurs score better when Wembanyama isn’t playing. When he’s isolated, he can slow down the flow while still trying to figure out what he’s capable of. He has quite a few abilities. These are growing pains, and we’re confident Wembanyama will resolve them over time. Whether he can do that this season will determine how close the Spurs come to contention.
4. Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers
Offensively, you couldn’t ask for more from Doncic, who leads the league in points per game (34.7), field goals made (23.1), three-pointers made (10.7) and free throws made (12.3). He does a lot of things, and while he can become more efficient (his 3-point shooting percentage, 32.4 percent, is on pace to be his lowest since his sophomore season), few players can get to his spots and finish like Doncic.
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Defense is where he struggles. When Doncic is on the floor with Austin Reeves and LeBron James (an offensive trio that no other team can match), the Lakers allow 117.9 points per 100 possessions, which equates to the league’s 25th-worst defensive rating. This is a fatal flaw that Los Angeles currently cannot overcome. No amount of offense from Doncic can cover up this flaw.
3. Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
Brunson is the NBA Cup MVP of an in-season tournament winner, and — let’s be honest — who else could accomplish such a significant feat in the first third of the season? The Knicks’ early goal was to establish themselves as a championship contender, and their efforts in the NBA Cup (3-1 in group play, 3-0 in win-or-go home games) solidified that goal.
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Brunson was the last straw for New York’s offense. When he’s on the floor, the Knicks perform like the league’s best team, scoring 126 points per 100 possessions, and when he’s on the bench, the Knicks offense plays like the league’s bottom five (111.1 points per 100 possessions). With great footwork, he can get wherever he wants, and often, even in 6-2 situations, he can create a clean look for himself or others.
Defensively, Brunson’s abilities are limited. The Knicks have an elite defense when Brunson is off the floor and a middling defense when Brunson is on the court. It’s a delicate balance. How he fares on that line — and how well he and Karl-Anthony Towns fare in pick-and-roll defense — will determine New York’s championship odds.
2. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
Jokic is averaging other A 30-point triple-double is simply ridiculous. He leads the league in rebounds and assists and ranks fifth in points. He finished second in MVP voting last season, arguably the most impressive stat line in league history, and he’s even better this year, shooting 67.6 percent from two and 43.3 percent from three. His production and efficiency were unprecedented.
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They’re translating into wins, too, as the Nuggets have more wins than any other team in the West except for the Thunder. After seven games with Oklahoma City in the conference semifinals in May, Denver once again looks to be its biggest threat this season. For the first time in Jokic’s career, the Nuggets held a narrow lead when the three-time MVP left the game, a testament to their improved depth.
On/off numbers always make Jokic’s case for MVP so compelling. The Nuggets are still a monster whenever he’s on the court, but they’re also now capable of making plays when he’s on the bench, which could ultimately hurt his career in this discussion, especially in such a competitive MVP race.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
I don’t necessarily agree that Gilgeous-Alexander was elected MVP last season because, as I said, how Jokic put up arguably the greatest statistical season in basketball history. But SGA won the award fair and square and proved it again in the playoffs, earning Finals MVP honors and ultimately the title.
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So, someone had to take away his honor, and no one did. The Thunder, led by Gilgeous-Alexander, quickly broke the NBA regular season win record (73 games) with a record of 24 wins and 2 losses. They started the year with eight straight wins, losing by two points to the Portland Trail Blazers, then went on to win sixteen straight before falling by two points to Wombanyama’s Spurs in the cup semifinals. They extended their lead to 15 points in both losses.
The result was a +16.4 net rating, which would mark the league’s best-ever net rating by a wide margin. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 32-5-6 and was so consistent that it felt like he was programmed to do that. They did it largely without Jalen Williams and without a full rotation for a game this season. They are by far the best team in the league and he is their best player, so it will be difficult to compete with Gilgeous-Alexander for the title of league’s most valuable player.
