Welcome back to the world’s most accurate power rankings, this week we’re ranking the eight NBA Cup quarterfinalists in order so perfect that they don’t even need to be in the tournament to rank.
That’s right: We ranked the eight remaining teams in the NBA Cup from least likely to most likely to win the single-elimination tournament. Bet accordingly, or not bet. I’m not guaranteed to win.
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What I can guarantee is that these are the best NBA Cup quarterfinal power rankings yet…
how they got here: PHX 118, UTA 96 • PHX 114, min 113 • PHX 112, SAC 100 • OKC 123, PHX 119
NBA Cup Quarterfinals: Wednesday at Oklahoma City (-15.5) (7:30 p.m., Prime Video)
The Suns are performing better than anyone expected, hovering above .500 and firmly clinching a playoff spot in a crowded Western Conference through the first quarter of the season. They’re 3-4 in their last seven games, more like the team we imagined they would be, with a net rating of -4.7.
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Devin Booker has missed the last two games, including a tough loss to the Houston Rockets, with a groin strain. While Booker is scheduled to be reevaluated ahead of Wednesday’s Cup quarterfinal game against the Oklahoma City Thunder, he’s unlikely to return in time to help Phoenix punch its ticket to Vegas.
Well, the Thunder will host the swinging Bucs Suns, and since every team except the Portland Trail Blazers has suffered the same fate against the defending champions, I don’t like the Suns odds.
The Suns will likely be without Devin Booker in the NBA Cup quarterfinals. (Alonzo Adams – Image)
(Image source: Reuters Connect / Reuters)
how they got here: TOR 112, CLE 101 • TOR 109, ATL 97 • TOR 140, WAS 110 • TOR 97, IND 95
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NBA Cup Quarterfinals: Tuesday vs. New York (-4.5) (8:30 p.m., Prime Video)
As Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic said about what his team needs to play a quarter of the way through the season, you know, “I’m asking the whole team for more urgency. I’m asking for more fight. When we do that… we’re a completely different team and we can compete with anybody.”
[Devine: Breaking down the East quarterfinal matchups]
That’s largely true, as Toronto has maintained its position in the Eastern Conference, holding onto the home playoff seed through the first 25 games of the season. Like the Suns, the Raptors have struggled of late, losing five of their past six games and playing more like the team we imagined they would be, and like Phoenix, Toronto has lost a key contributor to the rotation as RJ Barrett (knee) has missed the past eight games.
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Statistically, the Raptors are just as good with Barrett on the floor (+2.7 points per 100 possessions) as they are without him (+2.5 points per 100 possessions), which is consistent with what we’ve seen from them and what they’ve said during their recent rough patch. I think this is a team that needs it everyoneAnd, as Rajakovic said, everyone needs to be pulling in the same direction, away from the lottery, to stay competitive.
how they got here: MIA 126, CHA 108 • NYK 140, MIA 132 • MIA 143, CHI 107 • MIA 106, MIL 103
NBA Cup Quarterfinals: Orlando (+2.5) Tuesday (6 p.m., Prime Video)
The Heat play faster than any other team, most of the time without screens, drives, cuts, spins and distance. This style of ball has allowed them to improve significantly on the offensive end, and they are currently ranked 13th after falling into the bottom 10s last season. The arrival of Norman Powell helped in this regard.
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“You have to learn how to be in the best shape of your life, really,” Jaime Jaquez told The Athletic of the necessary requirements to play in their new system. “You just have to stay in good shape.”
Apparently they are. In addition to their newly learned offensive responsibilities, the Heat’s defense is as solid as last season, ranking in the top 10 in this area. The resulting net rating (+3.5) has led to a solid 14-10 record and secured the Eastern Conference’s final playoff spot.
There are some questions about how well their style has spread. They are 4-7 on the road, including two losses in Orlando, where they will travel to play in the cup quarterfinals on Tuesday. When the Heat are in Miami, it might be easier to get the team out of the stadium because South Beach is a distraction for tourists.
how they got here: ORL 123, BOS 110 • ORL 105, BOS 98 • ORL 144, PHI 103 • ORL 112, DET 109
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NBA Cup Quarterfinals: Tuesday vs. Miami (-2.5) (6 p.m., Prime Video)
The Magic performed well in the absence of Paolo Banchero due to injury, getting the former No. 1 overall pick back, then lost Franz Wagner to a serious injury. This is frustrating beyond words.
“You never want to see anybody go down, but it broke my heart to see him go down,” Magic coach Jamal Mosley said. “I’m just praying that he’s going to be okay. You just don’t like to see that happen to anybody, especially [Franz]he tries to do everything the right way all the time. “
Wagner’s official diagnosis: a high sprain of his left ankle. It looks worse. Cut him out of the NBA Cup and move on. “His return will depend on his response to treatment,” the Magic’s statement said.
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According to Cleaning the Glass, Orlando has scored +1.3 points per 100 meaningful possessions this season with Wagner on the court and without Banchero, while when the reverse is the case, they have scored -6.3 points per 100 non-junk possessions. That doesn’t bode well for their chances against Miami, but I know Banchero learned from watching Wagner play in his absence, and the Magic are more than capable of getting the job done.
how they got here: SAS 121, HOU 110 • GSW 109, SAS 108 • SAS 115, POR 102 • SAS 139, DEN 136
NBA Cup Quarterfinals: Los Angeles (-4.5) Wednesday (10:05 p.m., Prime Video)
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It’s true that the Spurs haven’t shown us their full capabilities yet, bouncing between the absences of De’Aaron Fox and Victor Wembunyama as well as a few other injuries. Still, they’re 16-7, fully in the hunt for a guaranteed playoff seed, and have a healthy +3.8 point differential, both of which sit fifth in the Western Conference.
“We’re having a great year now, but we still don’t have our entire team,” Rookie of the Year Stephen Castle said. “It’s a blessing and a curse. When guys are out, guys get more comfortable and they get more shots. Obviously, we want the whole team to come together and reach our full potential.”
That could happen on Wednesday, when Wembanyama travels to Los Angeles, weeks away from a strained left calf he suffered. His participation in the cup quarter-finals remains uncertain.
When Wembanyama is on the court, the Spurs’ defensive efficiency is matched only by the Thunder’s, and when he’s not on the court, the Spurs’ defensive efficiency drops to the bottom ten in the league. The team’s offense has moved into the top 10 in Wembanyama’s absence, but they’ll need a full complement of defensive players — with a healthy 7-foot-5 alien in the middle — to send the Lakers packing.
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how they got here: LAL 117, MEM 112 • LAL 118, NOP 104 • LAL 135, LAC 118 • LAL 129, DAL 119
NBA Cup Quarterfinals: Wednesday vs. San Antonio (+4.5) (10:05 p.m., Prime Video)
Luka Doncic, Austin Reeves and LeBron James form the most dangerous offensive trio in the game, especially since James looked more like himself as he scored 29 points on Sunday.
“I mean, I’m only 40 and it’s going to take a while for my body to get back into rhythm,” James said on his return to All-Star form. “So it felt good tonight, feeling a little bit like myself and being able to run, jump, cut and grab my second win quicker. Hopefully that feeling can keep up.”
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Hope this can be retained. That’s the eternal mantra in Los Angeles, where James turns 41 later this month. Because, as long as James is on the court, he provides the Lakers with a third offensive option that can be double-teamed, and there are not enough defenders to arrange Doncic, Reeves and James.
Defense remains an issue, though, with the Lakers ranking 21st in scoring in that area (116.2 points allowed per 100 possessions). It’s hard to imagine them seriously contending for a championship with the personnel they have, but it’s also hard to imagine anyone slowing down the Lakers’ big three in this must-win game because, and that’s probably an oversimplification, James and Doncic know how to pull these games off.
how they got here: CHI 135, NYK 125 • NYK 140, MIA 132 • NYK 129, CHA 101 • NYK 118, MIL 109
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NBA Cup Quarterfinals: Toronto (+4.5) Tuesday (8:35 p.m., Prime Video)
The Knicks welcome OG Anunoby back from a strained left hamstring with two wins against the Magic and Utah Jazz. When he’s on the floor with Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns, the Knicks outscore opponents by 35.6 points per 100 possessions and perform like the league’s best team on both ends, which is a welcome sign for New York.
Of course, the Knicks also outscored their opponents by 6.1 points per 100 possessions when Towns shared the floor with center Mitchell Robinson, another healthy number. For Knicks head coach Mike Brown, having a pair of starting lineups to choose from is far from the worst problem.
Either way, the Knicks are legitimately the favorite in the Eastern Conference. They also have defensive issues, ranking in the middle of the pack defensively given the limitations of Brunson and Towns, despite being one of the better defensive teams in the league at home this season.
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“We’ve done a good job of protecting our home court,” said Josh Hart, whose Knicks are 13-1 at Madison Square Garden. “This is supposed to be the hardest place to play in the NBA, and we want teams to know that.”
how they got here: OKC 132, SAC 101 • OKC 144, UTA 112 • OKC 113, MIN 105 • OKC 123, PHX 119
NBA Cup Quarterfinals: Wednesday vs. Phoenix (+15.5) (7:35 p.m., Prime Video)
There’s a lot of lip service in the NBA and this certainly sounds like lip service…
“Our team has developed a belief over time that it’s how you perform tonight,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said. “Nothing we did before this was going to help tonight.”
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…but that’s not the case.
Oklahoma City actually believes what it preaches. The Thunder wake up every morning to do their job, which is to win basketball games, and a previous win doesn’t guarantee they will win the next one. So they have to give it their all. Their all-out effort is better than the next almost every night.
“Our teams are more similar than different,” Dainio said of his defending champions. “The only difference is probably a little more confidence – inner confidence and assurance. I think chemistry and continuity help with that. But the feeling is the same. The things we emphasize are the same.”
There’s not much more to say about this team except that they are quickly becoming the greatest team of all time.
