Despite Bitcoin briefly falling below $62,000 last week and Strategy (MSTR) facing mounting paper losses, Michael Saylor is not giving up on his Bitcoin (BTCUSD) bet. A video from May 2025 has gone viral again, after the value of Bitcoin fell by half from its October peak of over $126,000. In the video, Thaler boldly declares: “If the rest of the world knew what I know […] They agree with me that Bitcoin will hit $10 million tomorrow. “
The timing of the clip’s reappearance couldn’t be worse. According to a regulatory filing, Strategy just disclosed that it purchased 855 Bitcoins for $75.3 million, paying an average of $87,974 per coin. With Bitcoin currently trading close to $69,000, these newly purchased Bitcoins are already underwater.
according to a CCN The report shows that Strategy currently holds 713,502 Bitcoins with a price of approximately US$54.3 billion, and the average price per Bitcoin is US$76,052. At current prices, the assets are worth about $50 billion, leaving the company with more than $4 billion in unrealized losses. Back in October, Strategy’s Bitcoin reserves showed paper gains of nearly $33 billion. The reversal was brutal.
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MSTR stock was also hit hard. Shares are down about 12% year to date, 44% over the past three months, and 60% over the past 52 weeks. MSTR shares are also down more than 70% from their July 2025 peak of $457.22.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, Strategy had a net loss of US$12.4 billion, or a net loss of US$42.93 per diluted share, compared with a net loss of US$670.8 million in the same period a year earlier. Strategy’s operating loss was $17.4 billion, compared with $1 billion a year earlier.
Despite the bloodshed, Thaler sees Bitcoin’s volatility as an opportunity rather than a problem.
“Volatility is a gift to the true believers,” Thaler said in the viral video. “It scares away tourists. It scares away lazy people. It scares away people who are traditionally already wealthy and have all the money.” The strategy’s founder believes that wild price swings benefit young investors who have “more time than money” and can accumulate Bitcoin at lower prices for more than 20 years.
Thaler made it clear he was not selling. In fact, Strategy bought more Bitcoin during the recent sell-off.
Still, questions about whether the company might have to liquidate Bitcoin have reached fever pitch. CEO Phong Le admitted in late November that Strategy could be forced to sell Bitcoin if the stock price fell below the value of its holdings. Saylor later clarified that a sale would only be considered if the company’s net asset value (NAV) fell below 1.
At the time of the report, Strategy’s NAV was 1.1, still above the threshold. It reflects a small premium, but is well below the exuberant multiples seen during Bitcoin’s rally. Strategy maintains a cash reserve of $2.25 billion, enough to pay dividends for two and a half years without touching BTC. The company said it intends to keep reserves at a level sufficient to cover dividends for two to three years.
The first major debt is not due until September 2028. Strategy’s convertible debt is unsecured, which means a Bitcoin crash could continue for quite some time before becoming a serious problem.
The worst-case scenario only arises if the long-term disappearance of equity premiums prevents companies from refinancing maturing debt.
Thaler’s $10 million claim sparked a backlash on social media. Users questioned his logic and way of thinking, with some sarcastically pointing out that if everyone agreed on the value of an asset, anything could be worth trillions of dollars.
Critics warn that Strategy’s debt-backed accumulation of Bitcoin increases leverage and centralization risks. With Bitcoin currently trading below the company’s average cost, Strategy’s primary method of financing by issuing shares becomes less efficient and increases the risk of dilution.
Some liken the situation to speculative bubbles of the past, such as tulip mania. Others pointed to technical issues, including Bitcoin’s energy consumption, the impact of the halving on miners’ economics, and increasing centralization.
Thaler remains convinced that Bitcoin will surpass gold by 2035. Thaler said in an interview that he has “no doubt” that Bitcoin will become a larger asset class than gold, citing its scarcity, widespread adoption and long-term demand.
Still, Strategy’s aggressive focus on BTC accumulation faces real challenges. The company has been working toward inclusion in the S&P 500 Index ($SPX), but failed to make the cut in September and December. Gaining a seat at the table means institutional credibility and passive capital inflows.
MSCI proposed a proposal last year to classify companies like Strategy with balance sheets dominated by digital assets as non-operating companies. Saylor strongly rebutted, saying the company remains an active business that uses BTC strategically.
The strategy achieved a 22.8% BTC return in 2025, exceeding the lower end of the target range. The company’s fourth-quarter revenue was $123 million and gross profit was $81.3 million. Cash and cash equivalents reached $2.3 billion as of December 31, compared with just $38.1 million a year earlier, reflecting the build-up of U.S. dollar reserves.
For now, despite growing criticism and mounting losses, Thaler shows no signs of wavering from his Bitcoin-first strategy. The company previously experienced a 50% drop during the crypto winter of 2022, when Bitcoin traded below its average entry price for 16 consecutive months.
“Our long-term focus remains unchanged,” Chief Financial Officer Andrew Kang said during the fourth-quarter earnings call. “We are committed to growing the number of Bitcoins per share and building durable shareholder value over the long term.” Whether that belief pays off or becomes a cautionary tale depends on Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming years. For Thaler, the stakes are all or nothing.
The strategy has an overall Strong Buy consensus rating. Of the 16 analysts covering MSTR stock, 13 recommend a “strong buy” rating, one analyst recommends a “moderate buy” rating, and two analysts recommend a “hold” rating. The $419.43 average price target implies potential upside of approximately 215% from current levels.
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On the date of publication, Aditya Raghunath did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are for reference only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
