CHICAGO — Back in November, when the freshman college basketball season was yet to make ripples on the national sports radar, Michigan State and Arizona State were staring at each other like boxers in two corners, waiting for the bell to ring.
Although their paths didn't cross, they were effectively mirror images, and their dominance was evident through the wins they achieved against good teams – often by big margins. Back during Thanksgiving week, when Michigan closed out the Players' Era Tournament with a 40-point win over Gonzaga and Arizona had already beaten Florida State, UConn and UCLA, it wasn't a hot take to suggest they would clash in the Final Four.
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“We've seen this happen,” Michigan athletic director Ward Manuel said Sunday as he celebrated a goal at the United Center in the Wolverines' 95-62 win over Tennessee. “But there's a long season.”
A long season will end the same way it began: with the two teams that showed the earliest signs of Final Four potential meeting in the Final Four.
“We've always wanted to play that team,” Michigan forward Axel Lundberg said. “That's what everybody comes to college basketball for, to play those blockbuster games. They've got a bunch of NBA guys. We've got a bunch of NBA guys. It's going to be a fun game, man, and I hope everybody's ready to play because I'm ready.”
Yaxel Lendeborg and the Michigan Wolverines have won every game in this NCAA Tournament by more than 20 points. (Kamil Krzaczynski – Image)
(Image from Reuters Connect/REUTERS)
Is this a de facto national championship game? This may be unfair. UConn and Illinois in the other semifinal are both good teams.
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Should the Final Four be reseeded? Now that is It's a good topic for debate because there's no question that the two best teams – and the two best teams all season long – will play on Saturday night instead of Monday.
How hard is it to be as good as Michigan and Arizona from start to finish? Well, you saw that on Sunday, when then-top-seeded Duke struggled in the second half against UConn.
College basketball's six-round, single-elimination tournament to determine a champion has long been the sport's blessing and curse. It makes the stakes high in every game and creates Cinderella storylines out of thin air. It also means that the national champion sometimes isn't the best team, but rather the team that shines at the right time and avoids bad luck or injuries. The uniqueness of March Madness makes the trade-off worth it.
But since Michigan and Arizona have already done that, there will be no such warning this year.
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Even before conference play begins, you can legitimately watch these two teams tear everyone in sight apart and conclude that they are a level above the rest.
However, this wire-to-wire trend goes against what we’ve learned about college basketball for decades. Sure, there were a few outlier teams that were locked and loaded from the start, but coaches generally viewed the season as a way to get ready for March and peak.
When a team shows national championship potential as early as Michigan did — the Wolverines beat other teams by an average of 34.5 points in 10 games in November and December, including some really good opponents — it's almost problematic.
“The hardest part is everybody’s starting to get more attention and more advice — really they’re getting more everything,” Michigan coach Dusty May said. “It’s hard not to be centered around you because the person you’re talking to is also centered around you. There’s a lot of distracting messaging and if you’re immature and you’re not connected to the group and you’re not willing to be held accountable by employees and each other, then it’s not going to work.
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“Once it creeps in, it's almost impossible to get it out. So our guys never let it in. Trust me, they all light a different fire.”
Brayden Burries and the Arizona Wildcats haven't lost since February 14th. (Eakin Howard-Imagn Images)
(Image from Reuters Connect/REUTERS)
If you compare this year's tournament to last year, when all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four, it seems like we're moving away from an era of parity in college basketball and toward an era of superpower clusters. Michigan State has won its four games by an average of 22.5 points, while Arizona State leads by 20.5 points. Both men faced real challenges in the second half on their way to a district title.
Tennessee is a top-15 team in the predictive metrics rather than some mid-major team that's doing well, but it's laughable that the Vols looked so vulnerable trying to generate a decent offense against this Michigan team.
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“Some teams have more room for error than others,” Tennessee coach Rick Barnes said.
To some extent, college basketball and college football have reversed roles during the NIL era. In the past, there was simply no equality in college football due to the sheer number of superpowers like Alabama and Georgia, and conference commissioners are now talking about expanding the playoffs beyond 12 teams because we might be excluding viable teams.
Meanwhile, March Madness has been pretty real for the second year in a row.
It's hard to know exactly what to do. You can point to the transfer portal and the ability of a program like Michigan to bring in a veteran star like the 23-year-old Lundenburg from UAB, but this is Arizona State with three freshmen in the starting lineup. Maybe it makes sense that teams like Michigan and Arizona, with strong frontcourts that don't rely on knocking down a ton of 3-pointers to win, wouldn't get frustrated as easily.
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Still, college basketball programs will have to be judged by what happens in March. Decades of history tell us that it is extremely difficult and rare for two teams to collide throughout the season and finally face off in the Final Four.
“That's obviously one of our goals because of the talent we have,” May said. “We have a sign in our locker room – 'April Habits' – and we've challenged these guys from Day 1 to develop championship-caliber habits that will allow us to win a Big Ten championship and allow us to flip the calendar from March to April. Now we're ready to do that.”
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Even though Michigan and Arizona showed four months ago that they could be better than almost every other team in college basketball, there's no guarantee they can actually figure it out on the court. There are too many obstacles to overcome and too many landmines to avoid.
But they will finally touch the gloves next Saturday in Indianapolis. Let’s get ready to rumble.
