Mark your calendars for 2024 if you are going to follow the Dodgers on the road

In 2022, the “It’s Not My Moneyball” series was created in response to the owner-imposed lockout that disrupted spring training and arguably cost Clayton Kershaw a perfect game in Minneapolis (which I had a lot of fun with). At the end of the World Baseball Classic, as the season begins, we have to revive this series because trouble looms in the distance, hanging in the air like a brick wouldn’t.

The current consensus among MLB experts is that the sport will come to an abrupt end in December 2026; my response: Where were you three years ago when I pointed to the clear writing on the wall?

This point needs to be repeated loudly because most owners are counting on the media and fans to ignore this timeless truth: There is absolutely no reason for a lockout to occur; if the current collective bargaining agreement (CBA) expires, players and owners can continue under the current system until a new collective bargaining agreement is reached. The only reason the owners imposed the lockout was to pressure the players union to accept a salary cap, which the union steadfastly rejected.

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Admittedly, I was wrong about the “culprit” for the impending shutdown, but my reasoning was generally sound, even though the owners were trying to act like they were doing something when in fact nothing was being done. Owners have stopped playing with optics and false commissions.

Back in 2023, the baseball world was trembling with fear that Steve Cohen was bullying the league with the Mets’ seemingly unlimited financial resources, and viewed Peter Seidler’s best attempt at imitating the Detroit Tigers’ Mike Ilitch (Mr.

Those concerns were misguided, as the Mets continued to find interesting ways to burn money, and like “Mr. I,” Peter Seidler’s untimely death left a trail of family trauma that rippled through the organization and is only now coming to a conclusion.

A great team was indeed on the horizon, but it wasn’t the (laughing) Mets, it was our very own Los Angeles Dodgers.

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If anything, if you want a starting point for a villain arc (other than the league’s failure to punish the 2017 Houston Astros for cheating—just a piece of metal, right?—and the 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks knocking the 2023 Dodgers nearly out of the playoffs), we need look no further than the Dodgers after one specific signing: Shohei Ohtani in the 2023 offseason.

Lest anyone forget, Ohtani structured his massive extension deal and presented it to the Dodgers (who unequivocally accepted), the San Francisco Giants (who probably should have offered more money), the Toronto Blue Jays (which is still a sore subject) and the Anaheim Angels (who declined).

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Too many people forget that Ohtani came up with this structure, and part of the reason may be because on a team that features eventual first-ballot Hall of Famer Mike Trout, the Angels’ closest chance to the playoffs is buying a ticket to watch with the rest of the populace.

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In the first phase of the current CBA up until Ohtani, the Dodgers’ spending largely followed standard deviation. However, when given the chance to win with a unicorn like Ohtani, you’d be an absolute fool not to try and get the most out of your balance sheet and trophy room.

Unlike the Angels, the Dodgers read the room, read their hand, and push the chips down the middle.

  • 2022 – $293,330,382, including $32.4 million in luxury tax

  • 2023 – $268,198,867, including $19.4 million in luxury tax

  • 2024 – $353,015,360, including $103 million in luxury tax

  • 2025 – $417,341,608, including $169.4 million in luxury tax

  • 2026 – $538.7 million, including approximately $142.6 million in luxury tax (projected)

A team’s payroll reaching $500 million is a fever dream for players on MLB: The Show. At its core, the Dodgers debate is really three halves of the same conversation, separated below:

The Dodgers make more money than any team in baseball. So the season was over before the first pitch was thrown! So baseball needs to shut down in 2027 to stop the madness!

Half of the above statements are true, hard facts, and we’ll break them down and test them over the next two articles.

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Live the life of Scrooge McDuck—for better or for worse

The critics are right: Based on what we know publicly, the Dodgers earn more than everyone else.

Having the biggest revenue deal in baseball (due in part to the incompetence of other MLB owners), leading baseball in home and road attendance every year since the pandemic, and having a generational international star somewhere between Michael Jordan and Babe Ruth worthy of a documentary that largely ignores him can do that.

No one can credibly argue that the Dodgers are not ahead of the baseball world in making money. One just needs to look at “maybe” law and order“Extra Kyle Tucker and a true king’s ransom will be paid for at least the next two seasons. The clamor before the lockout was so high: The Dodgers were breaking baseball with wanton spending and no other team had a chance to compete. In fact, reporters like Jeff Passan were already pouring water on the position.

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