2026 March Madness Predictions: Use KenPom to pick upsets in NCAA bracket, Final Four originally appeared on The Sporting News. Click here to add Sports News as your go-to source.
Before making your 2026 NCAA Tournament selections from the first round to the Final Four, Ken Pomeroy’s namesake KenPom ratings must be consulted. March Madness gets its name because of those unforeseen upsets, early exits and dream endings, but in the end, it’s still about statistical sanity.
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Most bracket fillers make their selections based on recency, ranking, and seed bias, but Pomeroy’s in-depth numbers-based bracket breakdowns have a history of analytical success.
Consider the results of the past 17 NCAA tournaments. Between Kansas’ defeat of the Nets in 2008 and Florida’s third championship last year, only six of the 68 teams (8.8%) in those tournaments advanced to the Final Four outside of the top 20 in KenPom’s rankings.
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Florida was ranked No. 3 in KenPom when it won last year, and Final Four top seeds Duke (No. 1), Houston (No. 2) and Auburn (No. 4) all join KenPom’s top four. UConn is ranked No. 1 in KenPom’s repeat run in 2024, and Final Four teams Purdue (No. 3), North Carolina (No. 9) and Alabama (No. 14) are all rock solid. In 2023, semifinalists San Diego State (No. 14) and Florida Atlantic University (No. 17) also meet the top 20 criteria.
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Champion Kansas was ranked No. 3 in KenPom during the regular season before the ’22 tournament, when North Carolina (No. 16), Duke (No. 8) and Villanova (No. 10) joined the Final Four. In ’21, champion Baylor (No. 2 KenPom) was joined in the Final Four by runner-up Gonzaga (No. 1 KenPom), the University of Houston (No. 5 KenPom) and UCLA (No. 13 KenPom).
Ten of the past 17 NCAA champions are ranked No. 1 by KenPom. Gonzaga was ranked No. 1 in 2017 and 2021, reaching the championship game both years in a row. No. 1 Kentucky in 2015 made the Final Four.
KenPom can help you find great chalk, but it can also help identify sleepers and busts based on two signature statistics: adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. If a team is rated highly in either area, it can make up for deficiencies in the other.
When Loyola Chicago reached the Final Four in 2018, the No. 17 KenPom defense stood on its side. In 2017, South Carolina had the 91st-ranked offense but advanced to the Final Four as a seventh seed with a third-ranked defense. In 2013, Louisville reached the Final Four with its seventh-ranked offense and No. 1 defense.
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Aside from two statistical anomalies from 2010 — VCU and Butler in 2011 — there’s nothing shocking about the national semifinals when you consider KenPom’s situation. The team that scores more points than its opponent on offense or defense has a chance to beat any team in the tournament.
Before using KenPom to make our 2026 March Madness bracket selections, let’s take a look at how the best teams in this year’s NCAA Tournament are graded.
Printable: Download the 2026 March Madness bracket here
KenPom’s ratings for March Madness 2026
KenPom’s top 10 overall teams in the NCAA Tournament
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1. Duke University (No. 1 seed in the East) |
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2. Arizona State (No. 1 seed in the West) |
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3. Michigan State (No. 1 seed in the Midwest) |
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4. Florida State (No. 1 seed in the South) |
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5. Houston (Second seed in the South) |
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6. Iowa State (No. 2 seed in the Midwest) |
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7. Illinois (No. 3 seed in the South) |
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8. Purdue University (No. 2 seed in the West) |
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9. Michigan State (No. 3 seed in the East) |
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10. Gonzaga (No. 3 seed in the West) |
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11. University of Connecticut (No. 2 seed in the East) |
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12. Vanderbilt (No. 5 seed in the South) |
Duke has had some injury issues but can still go far this year. Along with Arizona, Michigan, Florida, Houston and Iowa, this is a hard-to-collapse party at the top. Purdue, Illinois and Vanderbilt are the favorites to win it all outside of that group.
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KenPom’s top 10 teams adjust offensive efficiency
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1. Purdue University (No. 2 seed in the West) |
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2. Illinois (No. 3 seed in the South) |
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3. Alabama (No. 4 seed in the Midwest) |
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4. Duke University (No. 1 seed in the East) |
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5. Arizona (No. 1 seed in the West) |
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6. Arkansas (No. 4 seed in the West) |
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7. Vanderbilt University (Fifth seed in the South) |
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8. Michigan State (No. 1 seed in the Midwest) |
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9. Florida State (No. 1 seed in the South) |
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10. BYU (No. 6 seed in the West) |
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11. Wisconsin (No. 5 seed in the West) |
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12. Texas Tech (No. 5 seed in the Midwest) |
Purdue’s scoring prowess was on display in its win over Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament, and Illinois was nearly as dangerous. Alabama and Arkansas join Vandy as dangerous SEC floaters ranked ahead of defending national champion Florida State.
KenPom adjusts the top ten teams in defensive efficiency
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1. Michigan State (No. 1 seed in the Midwest) |
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2. Duke University (No. 1 seed in the East) |
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3. Arizona (No. 1 seed in the West) |
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4. Iowa State (No. 2 seed in the Midwest) |
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5. Houston (Second seed in the South) |
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6. Florida State (No. 1 seed in the South) |
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7. Nebraska (No. 4 seed in the South) |
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8. Gonzaga (No. 3 seed in the West) |
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9. University of Kansas (No. 4 seed in the East) |
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10. University of Connecticut (No. 2 seed in the West) |
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11. St. John’s University (No. 5 seed in the East) |
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12. Michigan State (No. 3 seed in the East) |
Michigan and Duke are the tightest defenses among the heavyweight teams in this tournament. The ratings get even more interesting here for Iowa and Nebraska.
The lowest-ranked teams in the NCAA tournament, as ranked by KenPom
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1. Illinois (No. 7 KenPom, No. 3 South) |
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2. Vanderbilt (No. 12 KenPom, No. 5 seed in the South) |
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3. Tennessee (No. 16 KenPom, No. 6 Midwest) |
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4. Louisville (No. 19 KenPom, No. 6 seed in the East) |
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5. Iowa (No. 25 KenPom, No. 9 South) |
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6. Ohio State (No. 26 KenPom, No. 8 seed in the East) |
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7. Utah State University (No. 30 KenPom, No. 9 West) |
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8. NC State (No. 34 KenPom, No. 11 seed in the West) |
Illinois, Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Iowa State are typical of teams in powerhouse conferences in the Big Ten and SEC that don’t have enough wins and losses to rank high compared to their rivals, although their efficiency numbers tell a different story.
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KenPom Most Supervised Teams in the NCAA Tournament
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1. Kansas State (No. 21 KenPom, No. 4 seed in region) |
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2. North Carolina (No. 29 KenPom, South Carolina No. 6 seed) |
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3. St. Louis (No. 41 KenPom, No. 9 seed in the Midwest) |
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4. Missouri (No. 52 KenPom, No. 10 seed in the West) |
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5. UCF (No. 54 KenPom, No. 10 seed in the East) |
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6. Akron (KenPom No. 64, No. 12 Midwest seed) |
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7. McNeese (No. 68 KenPom, No. 12 seed in the South) |
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8. Northern Iowa (No. 72 KenPom, No. 12 seed in the East) |
Be careful not to assume that Kansas and North Carolina are sleepers just because of their noble ancestry. This also tells you that the typical strategy of taking the 12th early instead of the 5th can backfire.
Most likely first- and second-round upsets based on KenPom, by seed
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1. No. 11 NC State defeated No. 6 BYU (West) |
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2. No. 10 Santa Clara over No. 7 Kentucky (Midwest) |
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3. Tennessee ranks No. 6, Virginia ranks No. 3 (Midwest) |
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4. No. 5 St. John’s defeated No. 4 Kansas (East) |
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5. No. 9 Utah State defeated No. 8 Villanova (West) |
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6. No. 9 Iowa beats No. 8 Clemson (South) |
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7. No. 5 Vanderbilt defeated No. 4 Nebraska (South) |
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8. No. 6 Louisville defeated No. 3 Michigan State (East) |
The seedings are pretty good compared to this year’s KenPom ratings, so be careful not to go crazy with frustration. North Carolina State and Santa Clara are the favorites to advance to the Round of 32 as double-digit seeds. Vanderbilt, St. John’s and Louisville could upset the Sweet 16.
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History of Seed Disturbance:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
2026 March Madness Schedule Predictions
Eastern Region Selection
serial number
first round
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No. 1 Duke defeats No. 16 Siena
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No. 8 Ohio State defeats No. 9 TCU
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No. 5 St. John’s defeats No. 12 Northern Iowa
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No. 4 Kansas defeated No. 13 California Baptist
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No. 6 Louisville defeats No. 11 South Florida
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No. 3 Michigan State defeats No. 14 North Dakota State
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No. 2 UConn beats No. 15 Furman
If there was ever a bracket that could have ended in a chalk win without a shocking twist, this was it. KenPom is too powerful here.
second round
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No. 1 Duke beats No. 8 Ohio State
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No. 5 St. John’s defeats No. 4 Kansas
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No. 6 Louisville defeats No. 3 Michigan State
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University of Connecticut ranked No. 2, University of California, Los Angeles ranked No. 7
Yes, don’t be surprised if Rick Pitino’s current team and Pitino’s former team take advantage of favorable matchups to join Duke and UConn.
Sweet 16
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No. 1 Duke beats No. 5 St. John’s
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No. 6 Louisville defeats No. 2 UConn
St. John’s could move on to play Duke, but Louisville is more than capable of challenging recent defending champion UConn.
Elite Eight
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No. 1 Duke defeats No. 6 Louisville
This rematch of the 1986 national championship game will go in the opposite direction, with Duke defeating Louisville.
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Western Region Selection
serial number
first round
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No. 1 Arizona defeats No. 16 LIU
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No. 9 Utah State defeats No. 8 Villanova
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No. 5 Wisconsin beats No. 12 High Point
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Arkansas ranks 4th and Hawaii ranks 13th
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North Carolina State University, No. 11, Brigham Young University, No. 6
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No. 3 Gonzaga defeats No. 14 Kennesaw State
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No. 7 Miami defeats No. 10 Missouri
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No. 2 Purdue defeats No. 15 Queen’s University
That’s looking pretty strong as well for a good portion of the group that’s better seeded. Arizona State and Big Ten powers Wisconsin and Purdue are the strongest.
second round
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No. 1 Arizona State defeats No. 9 Utah State
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No. 4 Arkansas beats No. 5 Wisconsin
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No. 3 Gonzaga defeated No. 11 NC State
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No. 2 Purdue beats No. 7 Miami
What can’t be forgotten is that as the 10th ranked KenPom team, Gonzaga is stronger than expected.
Sweet 16
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No. 1 Arizona beats No. 4 Arkansas
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No. 3 Gonzaga defeats No. 2 Purdue
Speaking of Gonzaga, they had a tough KenPom tie against Purdue in the regional semifinals.
Elite Eight
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No. 1 Arizona State defeats No. 3 Gonzaga
This will be a true showdown between the “West” and the two most famous traditional powers in the region.
Best of the Midwest
Iowa
serial number
first round
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No. 1 Michigan defeats No. 16 UMBC/Howard University
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No. 8 Georgia defeats No. 9 St. Louis
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Texas Tech is ranked No. 5, Akron is ranked No. 12
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No. 4 Alabama defeats No. 13 Hofstra
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No. 6 Tennessee defeats No. 11 Miami (Ohio)/SMU
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No. 3 Virginia defeats No. 14 Wright State
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No. 10 Santa Clara defeats No. 7 Kentucky
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No. 2 Iowa State overtakes No. 15 Tennessee State
Santa Clara and Tennessee are two other crafty KenPom teams to watch. Akron is another weak No. 12.
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second round
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No. 1 Michigan beats No. 8 Georgia
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Texas Tech is ranked No. 5 and the University of Alabama is No. 4
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No. 6 Tennessee beats No. 3 Virginia
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Iowa State is No. 2, Santa Clara State is No. 10
Texas Tech and Tennessee are likely to be eliminated, as Alabama and Virginia didn’t receive KenPom’s top lottery picks.
Sweet 16
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No. 1 Michigan defeats No. 5 Texas Tech
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Iowa ranked No. 2, Tennessee ranked No. 6
Michigan State and Iowa State are too strong to stop a Cinderella run.
Elite Eight
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No. 2 Iowa State defeats No. 1 Michigan
Iowa State’s offense and defense combine to once again stop the Wolverines’ offense.
Southern Region Picks
serial number
first round
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No. 1 Florida beats No. 16 Prairie View A&M/Lehigh
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No. 9 Iowa State defeats No. 8 Clemson
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No. 5 Vanderbilt defeats No. 12 McNeese
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No. 4 Nebraska defeats No. 13 Trojans
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No. 6 North Carolina beats No. 11 VCU
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The University of Illinois is ranked 3rd and the University of Pennsylvania is ranked 14th.
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No. 7 Saint Mary’s College overtakes No. 10 Texas A&M
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No. 2 Houston defeats No. 15 Idaho State
Not a lot of troubling circumstances here, but Iowa State is a better KenPom team than Clemson.
second round
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No. 1 Florida State defeats No. 9 Iowa State
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No. 5 Vanderbilt defeats No. 4 Nebraska
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Illinois ranked No. 3, North Carolina ranked No. 6
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No. 2 Houston defeats No. 7 Saint Mary’s University
Vanderbilt and Illinois will show off some of their KenPom strengths against the top seeds in this round.
Sweet 16
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No. 1 Florida defeats No. 5 Vanderbilt
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No. 2 Houston beats No. 3 Illinois
Florida State and Houston appear destined to battle for big things again.
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Elite Eight
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No. 2 Houston beats No. 1 Florida State
This time, the Cougars wouldn’t pass up the chance to beat the Gators.
More expert braces:DeCourcy (Arizona) | Bender (Michigan) | Gay (UCLA Women)
2026 Final Four Draft Pick
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This is a pretty strong group, even if it will be two No. 1 seeds and a No. 2 seed instead of the top four seeds. It will be another strong national semifinal and final.
National Championship: Arizona defeats Duke
Arizona is the No. 1 seed with the fewest weaknesses and injury issues and will live up to KenPom’s No. 2 rating.
Final score: Arizona 80, Duke 76
