You pour into your bracket, digging into the metrics and season-long results of High Point, Northern Iowa, Kennesaw State and similar teams to try to find first-round upsets, but here’s the secret: Since they only account for one point of your total, like the old golf adage “For show, putt for dough,” hitting an upset or two on Thursday or Friday is all about bragging rights.
What really matters is what happens in April, because the only thing you have to do to have a chance at winning the bracket pool is get the 32 points awarded in the Yahoo Men’s Bracket Chaos.
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It’s crucial that you understand that once you select that champion, you join a group of others with the same selection, and those contestants are the only ones you’re actually competing against because of how the scoring works.
Here is the pick distribution for the bracket challenge (via Yahoo!):
Duke: 29% were selected as national champions
Arizona: twenty one%
Michigan: 14%
Florida: 6%
Houston: 5.5%
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For example, if you select Duke as your champion, then for every 100 entries in your pool, you will compete against 29 of them. Once you get to the eighth most popular pick (Iowa) and below, you’re only competing against 1% of the population.
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If nothing else, the above information shows the gap with the No. 1 seed. If you look at BetMGM’s betting odds, you’ll find the implied title odds for each of these four players:
After Sunday’s picks, you might have believed all four teams would be picked equally, but Duke was picked to win twice as many times as Michigan and four times as many times as the defending champion Florida Gators.
hint: The greater the gap between the pick distribution and the implied odds, the more valuable the championship pick in your bracket is.
5 Games You Need to Get Right
Since championship is where your competition starts, how can you differentiate yourself from other like-minded individuals?
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Do you need to pick a No. 1 seed or a No. 2 seed in the first round? Absolutely not. These eight are automatically advanced to the next round.
From that point on, all you need is five other games throughout the tournament.
East Division First Round: (11) South Florida vs. (6) Louisville
Early on, you don’t need to set up any one game for your team to lose in the next round. So, if by some miraculous surprise you didn’t see it coming and your favorite team loses in the next round, don’t worry. In fact, cheer for the team because someone else may have taken the team further but now isn’t getting those points.
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[Contrarian strategies to help you win your bracket pool]
In addition to the points awarded to the team that correctly advances through the next four sections (and the champion), there will be a toss-up that you’ll be watching and saying “either team can win this next game.”
South Florida-Louisville is a game this year where the winner has a real chance to beat Michigan State. Here at The WINDOW, we think the Spartans are only a 4.5-point favorite against the Cardinals, and that margin will be even smaller if Mikel Brown Jr. is 100 percent. South Florida is relatively unknown and a long shot, but if the Bulls can beat the Cardinals, they can beat Michigan State.
hint: Games 8-9 are extremely competitive, but since so few contestants are willing to take unnecessary risks by backing a team to knock off the No. 1 seed in the second round, they’re largely irrelevant when the final scores are added up. The second round makes you want to lock in the start with the No. 3 seed.
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East Region Second Round: (5) Kansas vs. (4) St. John’s
As with our first round, you’ll need to find two teams in the second round that can advance to the regional finals, and then you advance to that school accordingly.
It could also be Wisconsin-Arkansas, who are also double-digit favorites in the first round and will likely meet in the second round, with a shot at beating their region’s No. 1 seed in the Sweet 16.
Since Arizona is healthier than Duke, the Blue Devils may be more susceptible to disruption given the athletic depth and star power of Darin Peterson and Kansas State or the physicality of St. John’s. Of course, the Jayhawks and Johnnies have to play each other first, and this game should be lined up around picking them in the betting markets.
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If this game goes well and the winner manages to beat Duke, it will have a big impact on the game as many are picking the Blue Devils to go all the way.
hint: The whiter the tournament result, the more points you need to win.
South Region Sweet 16: (5) Vanderbilt vs. (1) Florida
You see Florida’s low draft spread numbers, and given the value relative to the championship odds, you’re interested in riding the championship back-to-back. And then you see the Gators are a team that has been thoroughly beaten all season long and just last week as well.
[Bracket Mayhem 101: How to use experts picks to fill out your bracket]
Vanderbilt is five minutes away from the SEC Tournament title and is getting all the attention this week, but losing to Arkansas doesn’t mean they don’t have the ability to repeat their performance against Florida and out of the South. Of course, the Gators will once again be around 6.5-point favorites and will seek revenge.
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hint: Use spread predictions to help you decide the level of risk you are willing to take.
Midwest Region Elite Eight: (2) Iowa State vs. (1) Michigan
As far as I’m concerned, the most likely regional final matchup is the Cyclones vs. Wolverines in the Midwest. Michigan’s fourth win in the Big Ten Tournament proved that some of the late-season issues that essentially limited the ceiling on their level of play (as they stopped extending the spread) after L.J. Carson’s injury have been put on hold.
With Iowa State projected to be just a possession disadvantage, the Cyclones could win the entire game if they beat Michigan to advance to the Final Four. Any team is a strong contender for the next game and you have to be ready.
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hint: Making this winner your champion or even a finalist increases the stakes, which means you may want to lean toward the favorite. In turn, you should be more willing to accept the loser if the winner is eliminated in the next round.
Final Four (the team that will lose to the champion)
You pick your champion, and now you’re either in the same group as Duke, Arizona, or Michigan, or you’re placing yourself in a tighter group of hopefuls.
If you’re planning on competing against a larger pool of contestants, then the championship loser selection may need to be a little spicier, but don’t believe the suggestion that you have to go crazy with the other finalists.
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If you take Florida, you’ll face 21% of the field, but considering only 29% of Houston in the finals, only 6% think “Florida beats Houston” even though they’re both No. 1 seeds.
In a pool of 300 entrants, you only have to beat 12 other guys with that combination, and you also need to win a key game in the first four rounds (BYU vs. Virginia Commonwealth, Michigan vs. Texas A&M, MSU in the Elite Eight, Houston vs. Tennessee), and no matter what you do, you’re guaranteed to win your spot.
Good luck!
hint: Fill in your brackets with the decisions above, then go back and do the rest. Since these games aren’t that important, you can have as much fun as you want while impressing your friends.
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You can find more valuable college basketball betting analysis from Yahoo Sportsbook contributors, exist .
