Even before tryouts began on Sunday, there were no questions about who would finish at the top of the NCAA women’s tournament.
But that doesn’t mean the committee was perfect throughout Sunday. There’s a lot that can be tweaked, from where the No. 1 seed plays to how other conference champions are seeded.
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Here’s a detailed breakdown of what the committee did right and wrong this season.
Where the Commission Got It Wrong: Giving South Carolina the Easiest Path
South Carolina has made five consecutive Final Four appearances. The Gamecocks don’t appear to be diminishing in their ability to push that number to six this season.
But the selection committee did them a huge favor in this year’s NCAA tournament. Among the top seeds, the Gamecocks have the easiest path to the Final Four.
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South Carolina’s biggest obstacle to getting to Phoenix may be the cross-country flight it will have to endure during the second weekend of the tournament (assuming it gets there). Iowa State is the No. 2 seed, sitting across from the Gamecocks. While the Hawkeyes have largely held their own in the Big Ten and have reached the Final Four in three of their past five games, this group appears to have a ceiling. They couldn’t even stop UCLA in last week’s Big Ten championship game and didn’t match up well against the Gamecocks on paper.
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Then there’s No. 3 TCU and No. 4 Oklahoma State. While Olivia Miles is one of the best players in the country, the Horned Frogs have suffered a few tough losses and are just 4-3 against Quad 1 opponents this season. Oklahoma State, despite beating South Carolina in overtime in January, lost to top-10 opponents multiple times the rest of the way.
By comparison, Texas has both Michigan State and Louisville State. Despite exiting the conference tournament early, both are capable of pulling off an upset win or two. A very talented Vanderbilt team, Hannah Hidalgo and Notre Dame are all in UConn territory. UCLA’s opponents are Duke, who just won the ACC Championship, as well as Kim Mulkey and LSU. The Tigers finished with a 27-5 record and were fifth in the NET rankings, just behind Texas. While they lost twice to South Carolina, both games came within single digits.
We’ll probably get all four No. 1 teams into the Final Four again. But South Carolina holds the advantage here despite being the last team standing.
What the committee got right: Sending Texas to Fort Worth
Although the region isn’t quite as simple as South Carolina, Texas earned the right to play at home.
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In last week’s SEC championship game, the Longhorns shut out the Gamecocks with a 31-3 record in a resounding victory, while the top two teams in the league had been tied by just five points in their previous games. Regardless, both would earn the No. 1 seed in the tournament, and a dominant win would be enough to push Texas into the Fort Worth Regional.
That means that after playing the first two rounds at home, if the Longhorns advance, they only have to travel about 200 miles north to Fort Worth to play in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. No time changes or extensive travel plans are required, a large number of Texas fans are already in the area. By comparison, the losses would have forced South Carolina to travel through three time zones and more than 2,200 miles had it advanced.
Now, success in Texas is not guaranteed. But a four-game lead in their hometown could have a significant impact on the Longhorns’ bid to return to the Final Four. It sounds simple, and maybe it is, but the committee clearly rewarded Texas in this regard.
Committee got it wrong: No. 2 seed should be Duke, not Michigan
This one might feel like a small thing, but the Blue Devils earned the No. 2 seed this season and should get a better draw.
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Duke is 24-8 on the season and will face Charleston as the third seed in the first round of the tournament this week. While it doesn’t look like a rough start on paper, LSU could have a future Final Four appearance waiting for the Blue Devils. The Tigers are beatable, but people would rather avoid them if possible.
Duke went 24-8 and won the ACC tournament and regular season championship to earn more than just a tournament berth. The Blue Devils went 16-2 in league play and were ranked No. 8 in the NET rankings.
Michigan State is having a very similar season on paper. The Wolverines finished with a 25-6 record and ranked second in the Big Ten regular season. They are ranked sixth in the NET rankings with a 9-6 record against Quad 1 teams, one point better than Duke. The Wolverines earned the No. 2 seed in Region 3 and will face Holy Cross on Friday. Texas is the No. 1 team that awaits on the other side, while Louisville is a potential Sweet 16 matchup.
The key difference here, though, is the final performance of both teams. Michigan suffered two tough losses down the stretch, first at Iowa State by nearly 20 points and then losing to the Hawkeyes in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals. Remember, the Blue Devils won the conference championship and split time with rival North Carolina. There, Clemson also suffered a late loss, but an ACC Tournament title should offset that.
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While the committee may not want the Louisville-Duke ACC game early in the tournament, the Blue Devils’ path will become easier if they get the No. 2 seed. A conference title should have pushed them over that hump.
Despite winning the conference tournament and regular season title, Duke earned a third seed in the NCAA tournament. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
(Kevin C. Cox via Getty Images)
The right thing for the committee to do: Get Tennessee on board
This one is very simple. Tennessee deserves to be in the tournament despite a very poor showing in the SEC.
The Vols were just 16-13 on the season, ending the year with a seven-game losing streak. In fact, they’ve won just twice since late January and are just 5-11 against Final Four opponents. But after going through the ordeal of the SEC, the committee chose to still include the slumping Vols in the tournament.
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Tennessee earned a No. 10 seed and will face No. 7 North Carolina in the first round. Even though Tennessee lost its first game of the season to the Wolfpack, its net ranking was actually higher than the Wolfpack.
It’s hard to have too much confidence in the Vols given their performance in recent weeks. They collapsed at perhaps the worst point of the season and now have to try to bounce back in Ann Arbor, where Michigan State could be waiting for them in the second round. The first two games are about as difficult as they can get.
But Tennessee has never missed the NCAA tournament in program history. And, still, this isn’t the season to break that record.
