The 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket will arrive in a few hours. For now, all attention turns to the bubble, where teams either still find themselves fighting for automatic bids or waiting to see if their pieces are worthy of being widely selected to play in March Madness.
With the conference tournament over and Selection Sunday approaching, Yahoo Sports is breaking down the remaining bubble teams for this year.
advertise
Note: KenPom rankings are updated Saturday, March 14th at 9pm ET, and all NCAA WAB and NET rankings and team statistics are updated with games played on March 13th.
Miami (Ohio)
Record: 31-1 (18-0 MAC)
KenPom Rank: 93
WAB ranking: 38
Net Rank: 64
The Redhawks should be in there even after losing to UMass in the MAC tournament quarterfinals. They were the first team since Gonzaga in 2020-21 to post a perfect regular season, and perhaps more importantly, they ranked in the top 40 in the important Wins Over the Bubble (WAB) metric. WAB is a tool that helps mitigate the intensity of schedule differences by measuring a team’s win total versus the average number of wins bubble teams are expected to have when facing the same schedule.
advertise
Dan Gavitt, the NCAA’s senior vice president of basketball, told CBS Sports that last year’s selection of the final 68-team at-large was “probably more relevant” to a team’s WAB ranking than its NET ranking, a metric that takes into account opponent quality, performance efficiency and game location. KenPom ranks Miami at No. 93, according to ESPN, but a qualified team has never missed the modern NCAA tournament. A 31-1 record and a top-40 WAB ranking will likely put the Redhawks in the dance and give the MAC a multiple bid for the first time since 1998-99.
Peter Suder was named MAC Player of the Year. He led six Redhawks players to average double-digit scoring averages. (Photo by Dylan Burr/Getty Images)
(Dylan Burr via Getty Images)
missouri
Record: 20-12 (10-8 seconds)
KenPom Rank: 52
WAB ranking: 41
Net Rank: 58
A stretch that began in late January and continued throughout February seemed to have the Tigers locking up a berth in the NCAA tournament. They won six of eight games during that stretch, notably beating the then-No. 1 team. 19 Vanderbilt, then-No. 22 along the way in Tennessee. But head coach Dennis Gates’ team lost all three games in March, including a second-round SEC Tournament game against Kentucky.
advertise
This momentum-killing slide began with a 16-point setback against Oklahoma, also in the bubble. Fortunately for the Tigers, they have won four in five games. However, if they end up in the NCAA tournament, they could be eliminated quickly. They rank third-worst in the country in free throw percentage (68.6 percent) and opponent three-point shooting percentage (36.5 percent).
[Enter Yahoo Fantasy Bracket Mayhem now for your shot at $50K]
saint louis
Record: 28-5 (15-3 A-10)
KenPom Rank: 41
WAB ranking: 37
Net Rank: 29
There may be bid-stealers in the A-10. Dayton came within one game of winning the conference championship when Amaël L’Etang hit the game-winning shot in a thrilling victory over Saint Louis in the semifinals on Saturday. This loss alone likely won’t hurt the Billikens’ chances. They were in the AP Top 25 in late January and throughout February. They had two Final Four wins, including one against a Santa Clara team that was also expected to make the NCAA Tournament. Additionally, they are ranked in the top 40 in WAB.
advertise
However, if Dayton beats VCU in the A-10 tournament, the committee would have to decide between St. Louis and VCU, assuming the league only gets two bids. This situation will be uncomfortable for the Billikens, who have been very good in the second year of the Josh Schertz era but have lost four of their past eight games and need second-half comebacks to win the other two games.
voltage control unit
Record: 26-7 (15-3 A-10)
KenPom Rank: 46
WAB ranking: 42
Net Rank: 44
The Rams ended the regular season on a high note, winning 13 of their final 14 games. What’s their only failure in this sequence? Well, that was against the then–no. 18 St. Louis, also entering the conference tournament with an A-10 record of 15-3.
advertise
VCU is looking to qualify for back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances for the first time since seven consecutive appearances in the 2011-17 season. At the time, the Rams were led by Shaka Smart and then Will Wade. Now Phil Martelli Jr. holds the keys. According to Bart Torvik, under his leadership, VCU has a 2-5 record in four games this season, with the team’s best wins coming against South Florida on November 26 and Dayton on March 6. With another win over the Flyers on Sunday, the Rams will emerge from the bubble as A-10 champions.
Phil Martelli Jr. is the latest head coach to push Virginia Commonwealth University into the NCAA tournament conversation. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
(Mitchell Layton via Getty Images)
singapore management university
Record: 20-13 (8-10 ACC)
KenPom Rank: 42
WAB ranking: 46
Net Rank: 37
SMU looked at each other throughout the game. The Broncos lost five of their final six games before falling to No. 24 Louisville in Andy Enfield’s group in the second round of the ACC Tournament. After all, SMU took multiple possession leads over 12 minutes into the second half. Still, the Broncos — who at one point were 19-8, including 8-6 in ACC play — now await their fate.
advertise
Adding to the pressure on SMU is that it has one fewer win than bubble team Stanford through four games, and the Cardinal beat the Broncos by 20 points on Feb. 28. But Stanford’s overall resume isn’t as impressive as SMU’s, and the Cardinals missed an opportunity to improve when they lost to Pitt in the first round of the conference tournament. SMU’s offense, led by Boopie Miller (19.2 points per game) and Jaron Pierre Jr. (17.6 points per game), ranks 27th in adjusted efficiency, according to KenPom.
Texas
Record: 18-14 (9-9 seconds)
KenPom Rank: 37
WAB ranking: 47
Net Rank: 42
Texas was also late. The Longhorns’ misstep could have been as serious as their state’s and likely cost them the NCAA Tournament. They’ve also lost five of their past six games and were even infamously eliminated in the first round of the SEC Tournament by a 14-win Mississippi State team that had only won four league games all season before reaching the SEC Tournament semifinals.
advertise
Texas didn’t just lose costly games late in the season. It is losing some of them badly. That batch of games included an 11-point loss to a previously defeated Georgia team that was 13 points behind the then-No. 1 team. 7 Florida State and was an embarrassing 20 points behind in the standings at the time. 20 Arkansas. The Longhorns, led by projected first-round NBA draft pick Dailyn Swain, have won four of six games. These keep them afloat.
Oklahoma
Record: 19-15 (7-11 seconds)
KenPom Rank: 40
WAB ranking: 49
Net Rank: 47
Another potentially fatal loss for Texas was to Oklahoma State. The Sooners won that game in overtime and on the road. It was one of four Quad 1 wins this season for head coach Porter Moser’s men. Moser is once again in trouble, just as he was last season when he led Oklahoma to a surprise appearance in the NCAA tournament. This time he tried to work more magic.
advertise
The Sooners finished the 2025-26 regular season but struggled with a nine-game losing streak early in SEC play, winning six of their final eight games. Two more wins in the SEC Tournament, including a win over Texas A&M in the Quad 1, and Oklahoma State is suddenly in the March Madness conversation. Along with St. Louis, Miami and Southern Methodist, Oklahoma ranks in the top 35 nationally in three-point shooting percentage. A 36.8% clip from the deep could open the door to chaos.
Auburn
Record: 17-16 (7-11 seconds)
KenPom Rank: 38
WAB ranking: 44
Net Rank: 39
A team that lost 16 games in the NCAA Tournament? Auburn has been working hard to prove a point. On one hand, the Tigers are riding a four-game winning streak. According to BartTorvik, two of those were Quad 1-A wins, although it’s worth noting that both of those wins were added to their resume before February: Auburn defeated then-No. On 14/26 at the Players Era Festival, St. John’s defeated the then-No. 1 team. 16 Florida January 24 on the road.
advertise
As of mid-December, Auburn was ranked in the AP’s top 25. By the end of January, the team’s record was 14-8. However, on the final day of the month, the Tigers suffered their first of five straight losses. The frustration snowballed, and the season ended with a 3-9 record in the final 12 games. Yes, Auburn has to play through the third-toughest schedule, according to KenPom, but 17-16 is 17-16.
San Diego State
Record: 22-11 (14-6 Shanxi)
KenPom Rank: 47
WAB ranking: 45
Net Rank: 45
If the Mountain West Conference is a two-bid conference this time around, there’s a good chance San Diego State will be the conference’s major league team. Junior guard B.J. Davis’ game-winning layup gave the Aztecs a win over the Lobos in the Mountain West tournament semifinals, and New Mexico may very well be ahead of New Mexico in that regard. In the process, head coach Brian Dutcher’s team picked up a much-needed Game 3 Quad 1 win.
advertise
SDSU has been booked to play in the NCAA Tournament for five consecutive seasons, most notably in 2023 when the program reached the Final Four for the first time and then finished as national runner-up. Its KenPom rankings in these seasons are No. 30 (2021), No. 25 (2022), No. 14 (2023), No. 22 (2024) and No. 51 (2025). The Aztecs are currently ranked No. 45 after losing to Utah State in Saturday’s conference championship game, and whether they advance will be a tough decision.
New Mexico
Record: 23-10 (13-7 Shanxi)
KenPom Rank: 49
WAB ranking: 58
Net Rank: 46
As mentioned above, New Mexico State’s chances of making the NCAA tournament could take a decisive blow on Friday, with a spot in the Mountain West tournament at stake. The Wolves will now hold selections on Sunday. Despite the recent head-to-head results, New Mexico hopes the committee will still favor its resume over SDSU. After all, the Wolves did beat the Aztecs once this season. That was February 28th.
advertise
What followed, however, was New Mexico losing three of its final four games. Friday’s matchup between the two teams in the conference tournament determines their win totals in four games 1. New Mexico has just two games this season. While the Wolves have the better overall record, the Aztecs have better WAB and NET rankings and a stronger schedule.
Indiana
Record: 18-14 (9-11 Big Ten)
KenPom Rank: 45
WAB ranking: 52
Net Rank: 41
In his first season as head coach, former Drake and West Virginia frontman Darian DeVries has Indiana on the bubble. The Hoosiers had a chance to get one last chance to bid on the mighty Big Ten conference, but they certainly shot themselves in the foot in the final month of the season. Indiana lost six of its last seven games before falling to Northwestern by 13 points in the second round, falling out of the conference tournament. It was the second time the Indians lost to the Wildcats in about two weeks.
advertise
Indiana also lost to then-No. No. 8 Illinois at 20 was defeated by then-No. 1 Illinois. Purdue, ranked No. 7, had a 29-point lead and dropped to No. 7 at the time. 13 Michigan State 13 points. The Hoosiers had one win in three Quad games between Jan. 27 and Feb. 7, with the Hoosiers beating the No. 12 Boilermakers as well as UCLA and Wisconsin in the NCAA tournament. The Indians haven’t looked like the team that wins these games in a while, though.
