Long term Bitcoin holders The largest cryptocurrency is on sale again, with issuance currently at its fastest pace in five months. As many expected, last year’s move preempted the market top that occurred in October.
According to data from Glassnode, investors who have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days (generally considered the most conviction-driven market participants) have sold approximately 143,000 BTC in the past 30 days.
Bitcoin’s price lags behind that of a broader range of financial assets, including metals like gold and silver, which are trading at or near all-time highs. This divergence signals pressure on the cryptocurrency market and increases the risk of further downside or an extended consolidation.
Their behavior mirrored the previous distribution peak in August, when approximately 170,000 BTC were sold in 30 days. At the time, Bitcoin was worth over $120,000, and two months later Bitcoin hit an all-time high, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin holders were selling hard
The October spike was predicted based on a theory that BTC prices follow a four-year cycle associated with regular halvings in rewards paid to Bitcoin miners. The most recent 50% reduction occurred in April 2024. Historically, each cycle tends to peak in the fourth quarter, followed by a prolonged retracement and consolidation phase.
At the time, nearly all of the supply for long-term holders (~15 million coins) was in the black. After a steep 36% decline from the October high to the end of November, there was a brief period from late December to early January for long-term holders to switch back to net accumulation.
This temporarily eased the selling pressure and helped stabilize price action, with Bitcoin jumping to a high of $97,000, with around 2 million Bitcoin currently in the red. Nonetheless, this group of investors currently owns approximately 14.5 million Bitcoins, highlighting that long-term holdings remain a major headwind for the price.
