JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said the bank is considering entering the field of prediction markets, signaling growing interest among major financial institutions in an industry that has expanded rapidly in recent months and includes cryptocurrency-native companies.
“One day we might do something like that,” Dimon said on CBS on Tuesday, though he ruled out offering markets in sports or politics.
“There are a lot of things we don’t do. Obviously, we have strict rules about inside information.”
Goldman Sachs (GS) has expressed similar ambitions. CEO David Solomon said on the bank’s January earnings call that the company is actively exploring this area. “I’ve met with two large forecasting companies and their leadership in person over the past two weeks and spent several hours with each company to learn more,” he said. “We have a team of people here who are spending time with them and working on it.”
The comments highlight how quickly the industry is evolving. Not long ago, prediction markets were a niche corner of the financial world, dominated by two reliable players: Polymarket and Kalshi. Today, competition is rapidly increasing.
Several crypto-native platforms, including Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD), have integrated prediction market trading into their products, expanding access to retail users and increasing overall market activity.
At the same time, early leaders continue to grow. Polymarket has secured major partnerships and investments, including a tie-up with New York Stock Exchange parent company Intercontinental Exchange. The company is believed to be valued at about $20 billion. Rival platform Kalshi was recently valued at $22 billion in a funding round led by Coatue Management.
The two platforms take different technical approaches. Polymarket operates on blockchain infrastructure, using networks such as Polygon (POL) to record transactions and settle positions through smart contracts. Users deposit stablecoins, place bets on event outcomes, and receive automatic payouts based on verification results.
Kalshi does not use blockchain technology; instead, it operates more like a traditional exchange, offering event contracts under a regulated framework with centralized order matching and settlement.
It’s unclear how JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs will build their offerings, specifically whether they will adopt blockchain-based systems or stick to traditional infrastructure.
Regulation remains a key uncertainty. The legal status of prediction markets in the United States is still evolving, particularly in terms of what types of events can be offered and how contracts are classified. Large banks may wait for clearer guidance before rolling out products.
Earlier this month, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) took two important steps to establish a regulatory framework for prediction markets, marking the beginning of regulation of the industry.
