On December 13, a joint U.S.-Syrian patrol was ambushed by a member of Syria’s own security forces near the central Syrian city of Palmyra.
two US soldier and translator The gunman was shot dead and four others were wounded before Syrian troops killed him.
In the aftermath of the attack, U.S. and Syrian officials linked the attackers to the Islamic State, which once controlled large swaths of Syria and Iraq, and promised retaliation.
The incident highlights the growing cooperation between the United States and Syria against the Islamic State, especially in Damascus joins A U.S.-backed coalition faced off against the group in November.
While it is unclear whether the attacker was a member of the Islamic State or another group opposed to U.S.-Syrian relations, analysts say cooperation between the two countries is strong and growing.
“At the request of the United States, the Syrian government has responded very forcefully to the fight against the Islamic State, and it is worth noting that HTS [Hayat Tahrir al-Sham]Rob Geist Pinfold, an international security scholar at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera that he had developed a long-term policy against ISIS before he came into government. He was referring to Syrian President Ahmed Sala’s former organization.
“it [HTS] This was done in Idlib, with the suppression of rebels and groups, and this is more of a continuation of this policy. “
Noureddine al-Baba, a spokesman for the Syrian interior minister, told Syria’s Al-Ikhbariah television that there was no direct chain of command for the gunman within Syria’s internal security forces and that he was not part of the unit responsible for escorting U.S. troops. He added that investigations were ongoing to determine whether he had direct links to Islamic State or adopted a violent ideology.
Islamic State attacks decline
In May 2015, the “Islamic State” took over the city of Palmyra from the former Syrian government.
The city, known for its Greco-Roman ruins, bounced back and forth between regime forces and Islamic State until the group was ousted in 2017.
In May 2017, the U.S.-led coalition also forced the group to withdraw from Raqqa, three years after the Islamic State declared Raqqa the capital of its so-called “caliphate.”
Many surviving Islamic State fighters are being held in al-Hol and Roj camps Northeastern Syria is controlled by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Others fled into the Syrian desert around Palmyra and launched occasional attacks from there.
On December 8, 2024, the regime of former Syrian President Bashar Assad fell. Analysts said that “Islamic State” militants took advantage of the ensuing chaos to enter various cities in the country. In June, the group launch an attack At least 25 people were killed in a church in Damascus.
Sami Aqil, a researcher at the Tahrir Institute, said recent estimates of the number of ISIL fighters in Iraq and Syria range from 3,000 to 5,000 fighters.
But experts told Al Jazeera that coordination between Damascus and Washington had improved over the past year, noting that Syrian security forces had thwarted multiple Islamic State attacks thanks to intelligence provided by the United States.
“The new government of Ahmed Sharal is committed to fighting the group, and compared to the Assad era, Sharal’s government receives regular intelligence from U.S. intelligence services and probably other forms of U.S. support. That’s a very powerful combination,” Arun Lund, a researcher on Syria at Century International, told Al Jazeera.
According to a report by consulting firm Karam Shaar Advisory, this cooperation has led to a reduction in Islamic State attacks in Syria. The report stated that in 2024, the “Islamic State” launched an average of 63 attacks per month, while in 2025, this number dropped to 10.
“Since HTS arrived in Damascus, cooperation [with the US] Jerome Drevon, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera.
structural defects
After the fall of Assad’s regime, there are questions about how to strengthen security. The thousands of HTS members who previously controlled Idlib in northwest Syria were not enough to ensure national security.
Syrian security forces have launched a massive recruitment drive, bringing in tens of thousands of new recruits to supplement the many existing former opposition battalions that have been integrated into the country’s new security apparatus.
Analysts say vetting is a difficult task amid such a massive hiring drive.
Nanar Hawash, senior analyst on Syria at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera: “The Palmyra attack points to structural flaws, not just a one-off incident. The consolidation and rapid recruitment of former factional fighters has created an imbalance in scrutiny and oversight, coupled with a permissive environment for radical views, allowing infiltration to persist.”
“Together, these factors obscure early warning signals and create space for threats to hide, thereby increasing the risk of repeat attacks.”
Analysts say they expect Syrian security forces to improve the vetting process over time. At the same time, another attack like the one on December 13 is possible and could undermine U.S. confidence in the Shara government’s ability to provide security in Syria.
“Due to the sheer volume, this may happen again [of new recruits]but over time the government will refine its strategy and be more thorough in preventing this from happening again because it will have consequences,” Draven said.
“We should be careful not to make generalizations based on one attack, which may be a one-off. But if it happens again, it could change the Syrian government’s perception.”
What does ISIS want?
As for the Islamic State, analysts say the group’s priorities have changed since Assad’s fall.
“What we’re seeing now is ISIS is trying to test borders and carry out attacks because they know they can’t gain control of territory,” Aqil said.
“Its purpose is to destabilize and remain relevant.”
“Islamic State cannot control cities or overthrow governments. But it does not need to. Its power is to destabilize,” Hawachi said. “The Palmyra attack showed that an agent with the right access could kill three U.S. personnel and destabilize bilateral relations.”
Analysts say ISIS could destabilize Syria by targeting state security forces, religious minorities (as it did in the Damascus church attack in June) or any foreigner on Syrian soil, from U.S. soldiers to humanitarian or U.N. workers. The group may also seek to exploit tensions between the SDF and Damascus. Disagreement over how to integrate The former enter the national security apparatus.
The SDF also runs the al-Hol and Roj prison camps in northeastern Syria, where many of the Islamic State’s most battle-hardened fighters and commanders are held. This could prove to be a key target for ISIS in Syria.
“Islamic State thrives in these vacuums,” Hawachi said.
“This is a guerrilla insurgency, not a caliphate, but in a fragile state it is enough to do serious damage.”