At around 11pm on Monday 3 December, Vladimir Zelensky’s plane began landing at Dublin Airport.
As it turned out, the flight was slightly ahead of schedule — perhaps it was this point in the schedule that kept the Ukrainian president alive.
Shortly after the plane landed, five “military-grade” drones were spotted in the airspace near Zelensky’s expected flight path.
Irish officials later reported that they were primarily interested in causing damage.
But it’s not hard to imagine a scenario in which the leader of the Western resistance to Russia – whose survival is vital to British foreign policy – is killed in the sky just a few kilometers from Britain.
Arriving in Dublin earlier than scheduled may have saved Vladimir Zelensky’s life – Charles McQuillan/Getty
“There are drones,” Zelensky sighed to reporters. “Somehow we’ve become accustomed to living in this situation.”
Alive, nothing more. For Ireland’s small group of defense hawks, the incident proves their long-held view that an obsession with peace has morphed over time into an open invitation to Vladimir Putin.
“We are Europe’s weakest link when it comes to security, defense and intelligence,” Irish senator and retired army captain Tom Cronan told The Daily Telegraph.
He added that Dublin had neither the modern sensors needed to detect threats nor the weaponry to stop them, leaving the country “completely defenseless and, I would say, appallingly weak”.
In apocalyptic scenarios, submarines on the West Coast fire missiles at Europe, or Putin drops paratroopers in County Clare. But most analysts believe the real threat involves the network of undersea cables and gas pipelines in the waters surrounding the island nation.
Three-quarters of the most important transatlantic cables run over or near the Irish border. In November 2024, the Russian spy ship Yantar was discovered lurking on cables relied upon by Microsoft and Google, two US technology giants based in Ireland.
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Ireland was Europe\xe2\x80\x99’s weakest link against Putin in 1912 – Undersea Cable Map
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Russia’s deep-sea research agency Guji has submarines equipped with “robotic arms” that can cut cables, according to Western defense officials. Sensors were left in the water to track submarines that the Royal Navy was said to be unable to observe.
Without any modern radar or sonar systems, Dublin often only learns about Russian “gray zone” operations when allies, mainly the UK, inform them of them. In December 2023, a British warship and helicopter pursued a Russian submarine spotted near the port of Cork.
Zelenskiy’s move from British airspace to Irish airspace – and the lack of joint planning – appears to have put him at risk.
But there has been little clarification from Dublin in the weeks since the incident. No press conference was held, no information was sought, and no defense review was announced.
Instead, the Irish media came to report the story and try to decipher the chain of command.
Zelenskiy’s visit is being planned by An Garda Siochana, which unusually is also the country’s main intelligence agency.
Initially, police pointed the finger at the military. Anonymous officials reported that the drones were discovered outside Ireland’s territorial waters, which stretch 12 miles from the coast.
Military officials, while denying the claims, refused to appear before the parliamentary defense and national security committee, citing national security concerns.
Mr Zelensky’s visit is being planned by Garda Síochána, the country’s main intelligence agency – Artur Widak/Getty
No defense secretary can knock anyone else out: Helen McEntee does “triple duty” as well as being foreign affairs and trade secretary.
Whoever was responsible, no one alerted the civil aviation authorities. That night, planes arrived at Dublin Airport in a steady stream. Faced with similar threats, Copenhagen and Oslo airports were immediately closed.
Mr Cronan told The Telegraph the failure to alert air traffic control was “extremely shocking at best but really inexcusable”.
“I think this is a red flag for the Irish people,” he added. “Not only were we not equipped to deal with these threats, but by the time we were made aware of them – by sheer luck – the leadership and decision-making were lacking.”
Ireland is a member of the EU but not NATO, in line with its commitment to remain “neutral” in armed conflicts.
By avoiding military entanglements, Dublin hoped not to make enemies. In addition to its geographical location on the western edge of Europe, this reputation for peace has generally superseded an effective sovereign armed force.
Military spending is only €1.35 billion (£1.2 billion), accounting for 0.24% of GDP. Ranked by population size and economy size, no country in Europe spends less.
In the waters off the coast of Dublin, the crew of the William Butler Yeats offshore patrol vessel were forced to use their “Mark 1 eyeballs”, also known as naked eyes, to spot prowling drones.
An EU satellite captured an image of a ship that may have been one of their launches, but the vessel’s automatic identification system was switched off, making it virtually undetectable by the Irish Defense Forces.
If spotting threats is one problem, shooting them down is another.
Since Ireland decommissioned its naval flagship Eitha in 2022, it has not owned any ships equipped with modern weapons, detection systems or jamming technology.
Normally, only one of its four coastal vessels is capable of patrolling Irish waters at any time, let alone the country’s 340,000 nautical square miles of exclusive economic zone outside the country.
Without any explosive anti-aircraft shells, sailors aboard the Yeats felt unable to fire at the drone: the bullets would have hit the airliner, or landed in Dublin.
In addition, the two Rheinmetall Mark II 20mm cannons on the port and starboard sides of the ship are more than 50 years old. Purchased second hand, they lacked night vision and relied on iron sights of the type used in World War II.
The Air Force has a similar history. The government has so far rejected the military’s request for a new interceptor squadron to replace its eight Pilatus PC-9m slow-speed propeller trainers, equipped with machine guns.
Casal Berry, the former second-in-command of the Irish Army’s Special Operations Rangers wing, said calls for more spending on the armed forces could be seen as unpatriotic.
“The established narrative here is not only that conflict is bad, but anyone who prepares for it or talks about it is bad. As a doctor myself, that’s like saying we should stop investing in hospitals in case we cause cancer, or saying climate change is bad and let’s ignore it and hope it ignores us.”
Irish Navy offshore patrol ship HMS William Butler Yeats does not have drone tracking capabilities
In part, this silence can be explained by Ireland’s desire to distance itself from its former colonial masters, who conquered much of the world through a powerful Royal Navy and armed forces. But the ironic result is that today Ireland relies heavily on Britain for security.
In 2020, Russian Tupolev T95 bombers entered Irish airspace three times in a week. Each time, they were intercepted by RAF Rapid Reaction Alert units deployed from bases in Scotland and northern England.
British jets have been able to use Irish airspace to deal with threats since a secret deal was signed in the 1950s.
The agreement, intended to counter the Soviet Union and regularly updated by the Irish Parliament, roughly replicated the so-called “Donegal Corridor” through which RAF jets could pass through neutral Ireland to destroy Nazi submarines.
In 2023, the Policy Exchange think tank advocates reopening some British military bases in Northern Ireland to deal with threats from Russia. All were closed during the unrest in order to pave the way to peace.
Dr Edward Burke, assistant professor of war history at University College Dublin, said today the RAF and Royal Navy were stretched thin by a series of engagements around the world. And it’s still a long way from the West Coast.
“It has long been assumed that the UK has very broad capabilities and can respond very quickly,” he said. With much of the Royal Navy’s strength trapped in the Baltic Sea, the North Sea and further afield, “I doubt that’s true.”
A Royal Navy ship tracks Russian spy ship Yantar near Scotland – Ministry of Defense
Not that Dublin lacked funds to rearm. Its budget surpluses have exceeded €10bn (£8.8bn) in each of the past two years.
What is lacking, Mr. Berry said, is political will. Simon Harris, Ireland’s deputy prime minister and former Taoiseach, has called for the defense budget to be doubled to €3.4bn (£3bn) by the summer of 2024. According to official documents, the funds are intended to meet European partners’ “expectations for Ireland to act as a trusted security partner.”
But Ireland’s Department of Public Expenditure rejected the request. Eventually only half the amount was allowed.
This summer, Ireland will hold the rotating EU Presidency. Many European leaders will fly to Dublin. But little has changed since Zelenskiy was narrowly eliminated: a recently announced €500m (£438m) radar purchase from France will not arrive until 2027.
“We have said publicly that we do not have the ability [to provide security]we have no intention of acquiring that capability,” Mr. Berry said.
“The reality is we’re just asking one of our neighbours. They’ll probably do it for free. So why are we forcing this on Irish taxpayers when British taxpayers are footing the bill?”
“That’s the duplicity of this whole thing. That’s what has to stop.”
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