IonQ is one of the most popular quantum computing stocks.
The company has grown rapidly through a series of acquisitions.
IonQ is trading at a historically high valuation compared to other bubble opportunities.
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The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has sparked a frenzy far beyond the tech world. While the intersection of hardware and software is still largely dominated by semiconductor stocks, a new opportunity is starting to emerge: quantum computing.
Quantum computing stocks soar in 2025. shares Defiance Quantum ETF Soared 35% – almost double performance S&P 500 Index. However, one popular quantum computing stock that has been relatively quiet over the past year is IonQ(NYSE: IONQ) – Pedestrian traffic increased by 7%.
Read on to learn what’s driving IonQ’s current price action, and to find out where the stock may be headed in 2026.
Image source: Getty Images.
From January to mid-October, IonQ’s stock price rose an eye-popping 73%. However, as mentioned above, the stock ended the year with modest single-digit percentage gains. What’s driving the sell-off in the final months of 2025? In my opinion, it all comes down to IonQ’s financial health.
Despite the appeal of quantum computing, investors may not realize that this technology is not yet available in a commercial setting. In other words, quantum computers are not driving business at the enterprise level. Instead, the technology remains primarily a function of research and development.
Still, IonQ has done an excellent job of marketing its trapped ion technology as some kind of next-generation application that’s about to break through. IonQ generated $68 million in revenue through the first nine months of 2025, handily beating management’s guidance.
Given the limited appeal of quantum computing more broadly, wouldn’t investors be excited about IonQ’s growth? Well, the answer is more nuanced than that.
Last year, IonQ spent $2.5 billion on acquisitions. Because the company’s technology is still in development, IonQ has bolstered its top line by acquiring unrelated businesses in the quantum artificial intelligence space. This illusion of strong growth sparked a long-running rally that is only now beginning to reverse.
IONQ Shares YCharts’ Outstanding Data
To fund these acquisitions, IonQ has been issuing stock. Last year, the company increased its number of shares outstanding by nearly 60%, significantly diluting shareholders in the process.
My gut tells me that more and more investors are starting to realize that IonQ is a stock that has been trading on narrative and hype for quite some time. But when analysts took a look behind the scenes, smart investors understood that the company’s approach to raising capital and expanding its product line by issuing stock was unsustainable in the long term.
While IonQ’s stock price hasn’t moved much over the last year, it’s still up nearly 1,200% throughout the AI revolution. Over the past three years, IonQ stock has risen from penny stock levels to its current price of about $51 per share.
While these numbers are interesting in isolation, they don’t reveal much about IonQ’s true valuation. Currently, IonQ has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 158. For reference only, CiscoAt the height of the dot-com bubble, the P/S multiple peaked at around 33, but by the end of 2000, as optimism on the Internet faded, the multiple plummeted 60%.
IONQ PS ratio data provided by YCharts
There’s an irony in comparing Cisco to IonQ: In the Internet age, Cisco actually had products that sold to major companies around the world. IonQ, by contrast, is still trying to prove that its technology deserves a leading position in the broader AI ecosystem.
If IonQ shares fell 60% (imitating Cisco’s decline), the stock would trade in the $20 range.
However, not only do I think IonQ stock is experiencing a historical crash, but I think the share price is likely to fall much further than what Cisco witnessed in the aftermath of the dot-com bubble, as IonQ currently has little marketable value proposition.
Against this backdrop, I expect IonQ stock to fall below the $20 range by the end of 2026. I believe the stock is nothing more than a speculative vehicle for day traders. Long-term investors looking to build lasting wealth may be better off steering clear of IonQ until the company can prove it has legitimate potential in the artificial intelligence space.
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Adam Spatacco has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a position and recommends Cisco Systems and IonQ. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Prediction: IonQ stock will be worth this much by the end of 2026 Originally published by The Motley Fool
