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INDIAN WELLS, Calif. — Aryna Sabalenka defeated Elena Rybakina 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(6) in the final of the BNP Paribas Open on Sunday at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden.
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The No. 1 seed saved a match point against the No. 3 seed with the power of her serve drive and timely skill, but it ultimately came down to her ability to impose her own terms on the match after failing to do so in the first set, as well as a nuanced service performance that denied Rybakina any break chances.
This is Sabalenka’s first French Open title and her 10th WTA 1000 title. Following this year’s Australian Open and last year’s WTA Tour Finals, the Chinese team also ended its two-game losing streak against Rybakina in major finals.
Ava Wallace and Matt Futterman, two of The Athletic’s tennis writers, break down the final and what it means for tennis.
Why Aryna Sabalenka’s Plan A Doesn’t Always Work for Elena Rybakina
When Aryna Sabalenka learned to incorporate diversity into her game, she went from a standout player and one-time Grand Slam champion to a world No. 1, multiple Grand Slam champion and finals mainstay.
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Sabalenka is always a striker, hitting her forehand to knock many opponents off the court in the space of two strokes. But the key to some of the biggest recent wins of her career has been her shooting ability and ability to score at the net.
She’s so good at it that sometimes the style of play feels more like part of her identity than something to rely on — or something to use against other power hitters who thrive as metronomes and aren’t good at changing tempos.
Rybakina is such a player. So much so that Sabalenka seemed to be trying to shake her off from the start rather than try to go toe-to-toe with the rare player who could take the racquet away from Sabalenka when she got on the court.
Even in January’s Australian Open final, Sabalenka was the same. Around the middle of the game, Rybakina pinned her to the baseline.
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A similar thing happened Sunday morning in the desert, a time and place where Sablonka experienced some setbacks. She didn’t hit the net once or hit a lob in the first set. Until the final game, she didn’t even start trying to drive down the sideline with an angled forehand, distracting the players.
All of this meant Rybakina had an early advantage, using her power to absorb, deflect and bounce off Sabalenka’s power in the first set. Sabalenka can win a lot of hitting matches. But it’s been a while since she won a match against Rybakina, whether at the WTA Tour Finals, the Australian Open, or early in the BNP Paribas Open final.
— Matt Futterman
How did Rybakina turn around in the second set?
In the first set, Rybakina was in complete control of the situation. That ominous flow she achieves at her best seemed to be well underway when she broke Sabalenka’s serve in the first game of the second set with a wild double fault by the world number one.
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Then, on the first point of her next service game, she unexpectedly hit a shot from the center baseline into the net, giving Sabalenka a target to send the ball over. The world number one jumped at the chance to bring Rybakina straight back to love and stop a train that was rapidly spinning out of control.
In the next service game, Rybakina made a forehand error for the first time in the second set and led 30-15. She hit a seemingly routine winning shot into the empty court, but the ball missed the baseline. Two points later, she sent a 115-mph serve into the net, double-faulted, and never regained control of her forehand the rest of the game.
In order to improve accuracy, she relaxed a little on the serve and slowed down the speed of the ball in order to gain more control, but this gave Sabalenka, who had been unable to contain the straight-line power of her opponent, one more second to prepare.
Even with her own serve being a little shaky at times, Sabalenka was able to surprise Rybakina enough with slow second serves and mixed groundstrokes to keep her off balance – largely because Rybakina had to sacrifice some of her own speed.
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—Ava Wallace
How do break point chances define the second set…?
In a match between two of the best servers and escape artists on the WTA Tour, a break on serve seemed at first to signal the end of a certain set.
Sabalenka then broke back early in the second set, and what had been a smooth, one-sided game suddenly became more intense. Rybakina’s forehand floated into the desert; Sabalenka even started to adjust the angle in the middle of the court. The service games became even tighter: Sabalenka scored 22 points on serve in the first set, compared to Rybakina’s 25 points, and 42 points in the second set, while Rybakina’s 20 points included a long hold in the fourth game when she saved two break points.
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When the world No. 1 hit some sloppy shots at 4-2, missing her first serve, her eyes filled with sunshine. Rybakina began enjoying her second serve as Sabalenka tossed the ball into the air for her second serve. Has she ever had a good meal?
Sabalenka rolled her second ball toward Rybakina’s backhand. Rybakina stepped forward to smash the ball, and Sabalenka’s forehand side court opened up and hit the ball into the center of the net. This was her fifth break point of the match. She only changed two. When Sabalenka tried to serve in the second set, she got another one.
As for Sabalenka, she’s been getting fewer opportunities, but she’s not wasting them. She went 2-for-2 from break point opportunities in the first two sets, then went 3-for-3 early in the third set. She took full advantage of the tennis scoring system – it’s not about how many points you win, but when you win them.
— Matt Futterman
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…How did Sabalenka’s serve stop them at the critical moment?
Sabalenka and Rybakina were neck-and-neck on serve for much of the match. Entering the final game of the third set, the two hit 57% of their first serves and won 65% of the subsequent points.
Until the end of the set, Sabalenka’s serve was more effective at crucial moments. She initially used it to decide the third set, not hitting T with the hardest shots she could hit, but instead slowing down or changing her position.
In the second set, Rybakina’s serve was too slow, disrupting the game. In the third game, Sabalenka used this strategy again, serving multiple times in the 80-mile-per-hour range, which always resulted in Rybakina sending the return ball directly into the bottom of the net.
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In the sixth game, with a 3-2 lead, Sabalenka led 40-0, then let Rybakina equalize. Sabalenka ended the match quickly, bravely serving at an acute angle at 104 mph, landing short and wide on Rybakina’s backhand just inside the service box.
The next time Rybakina was level with Sabalenka, she did the same thing, hitting a nice old-fashioned 111-mph ace to make it 5-3 and end any hope of prolonging the round.
But then, in Sabalenka’s serve game, with the score at 5-4, her first serve was abandoned and Rybakina returned to the game. World No. 3 Sabalenka began to find the angles Sabalenka had exploited for much of the set and broke serve to bring the score to 5-5 and eventually force a decider – she saved five break points in the 11th game of the set.
—Ava Wallace
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Sabalenka completes key tasks for 2026
For Aryna Sabalenka, it was a big move in a “big” final.
If the four-time Grand Slam winner, world No. 1 for the past year and a half, and more and more often in the finals of any tournament she competes in, Sabalanka doesn’t often play her best tennis in the biggest moments, at the biggest tournaments.
Tennis has a nickname for these events – “The Big Title.” For women, these include the Grand Slams, 10 WTA 1000 events and the WTA Tour Finals.
Sabalenka played in the final of seven of those tournaments last year and won three. It hurt her – and it got worse in January, when she lost to Rybakina in the Australian Open final.
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Keep losing games like this and scar tissue and doubt will start to form. After taking a set and a break, Sabalenka was on track to suffer her third straight loss in the final.
She had help from Rybakina, whose forehand, serve and efficiency suffered as the sun climbed higher, but Sabalenka emerged stronger as conditions became more difficult and won her first WTA 1000 since last year’s Madrid Open, just below Grand Slam level.
In the decisive tie-break, Sabalenka fell behind and everything fell on her. Rybakina’s short backhand laser saved a match point, and then she launched a forehand slam at the onrushing Rybakina at 6-6, with the world No. 3 hitting the ball back, but beyond the baseline.
The win moved her to 1-1 in this year’s “big” finals and 2 out of 3 wins in the Grand Finals. She also won the Brisbane International to start the season.
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Sabalenka said losing a big final last year was a good problem to have. She took a step toward resolving that issue in the desert on Sunday, and it was only fitting that she began to resolve it with a tiebreak, even with a small break. Since the start of 2025, she is 27-3 in tiebreakers.
What did Aryna Sabalenka say after the final?
We’ll bring you reflections from their on-field quotes and press conferences as they arrive.
What did Elena Rybakina say after the final?
We’ll bring you reflections from their on-field quotes and press conferences as they arrive.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
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