As President Donald Trump’s historic tariffs reshape the trade landscape into 2025, some of which were struck down by the Supreme Court on Friday, no country has experienced as big a shift as China.
Thanks in large part to U.S. tariffs that once reached triple digits, the Asian manufacturing powerhouse’s share of the overall U.S. import market will fall to 9% by 2025 from 13.4% in 2024, according to the December trade report released by the U.S. Commerce Department on Thursday.
This is China’s lowest market share since the early 2000s. Less than a decade ago, China accounted for one-fifth of annual U.S. imports.
In 2025, U.S. imports from China will drop to $308 billion, the lowest level since 2009, down more than 42% from the record high of $539 billion in 2018.
Considering all the tariffs Trump announced last year, and the rollback he grantedOlu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings in New York, and his colleague Sarah Repucci said Chinese goods faced an “effective” U.S. tariff of 30.9% in November. This includes, but is not limited to, Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs that were struck down by the Supreme Court.
In comparison, India’s effective tariff rate is 19.7%, Vietnam’s 12.7%, the European Union’s 8.1%, Mexico’s 4.2%, Canada’s 3.7%, and Taiwan’s 3.5%. Calculated based on Fitch Ratings.
“Basically, as China declines across the board, many Asian countries are increasing their share of imports from the United States,” Sonora told POLITICO, adding that Vietnam, Taiwan, Mexico and India were among the biggest beneficiaries.
Two categories of imports, including motors, smartphones, computers and other related goods, account for nearly half of U.S. imports from China. Below, we analyze the biggest changes in these and several other categories of goods that fell last year as U.S. companies shifted supply chains.
Telephone: Over the past 25 years, the United States has imported nearly $950 billion worth of mobile phones and related equipment from China, most of which were smartphones in recent years. Annual mobile phone imports from China reached a record $72 billion in 2017 and have since fallen sharply, falling to $30 billion by 2025.
At the same time, China’s share of the U.S. mobile phone import market has also declined – peaking at 65% in 2018 but falling to just 21% last year.
Suppliers from other countries are filling the gap. In 2025, the United States imported $142 billion worth of mobile phones and devices, a record high, with Vietnam accounting for about 22% of the market, India accounting for 17%, and Thailand accounting for 13%.
Mobile phone imports from India are particularly notable as imports nearly tripled from the previous year to $25 billion, with smartphones driving much of this growth. Smartphones from India account for 42% of the US smartphone import market.
Fortunately for New Delhi, Trump exempted smartphones from the 25% additional tariffs temporarily imposed on India over its purchase of Russian oil, as well as the reciprocal tariffs imposed on almost every country in August.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer praised India in an interview with Fox Business last week as a manufacturing alternative to China, at least temporarily, as the U.S. tries to increase its own production of key goods.
“American workers come first, but to the extent that we import from other countries, India can be a good source as long as it’s balanced and fair,” he said.
computer: Although Trump announced in early April that computers, smartphones, semiconductors and certain other electronic products would be exempted from “reciprocal” tariffs, he did not exempt these goods from the 20% fentanyl-related tariffs that were separately imposed on China in early 2025. The US government reduced the tariffs to 10% in November. Friday’s Supreme Court ruling also lifted that obligation.
Higher tax rates and a long-term effort by companies to diversify their operations away from China have led to a sharp decline in U.S. imports of computers and accessories.
The share of imports from China will fall significantly, from 26% in 2024 to just 4% in 2025. That meant imports last year were worth about $11 billion, less than a third of what the United States imported the year before. In 2021, the United States imported $61 billion in Chinese-made computing equipment, a record high.
Although China’s computer exports to the United States have declined, the United States is importing more computer equipment than ever: by 2025, imports will reach $251 billion, up from $140 billion the previous year.
Imports from Taiwan increased from US$26 billion in 2024 to more than US$85 billion last year. Mexico’s imports of such equipment also nearly doubled to $90 billion, while imports from Vietnam and Thailand also surged.
These dramatic increases have raised questions about whether the products are produced locally in China or are actually made there and transited through other countries — a practice the Trump administration is trying to crack down on. “It’s very much an unknown,” Sonora said.
Toys, games and sports equipment: China has historically dominated the U.S. import market for these products, peaking at 80% a decade ago. The value of these imports fell sharply last year to less than $19 billion, compared with $30 billion in 2024. This will reduce the US import share from China to 53% in 2025. In particular, the market share of video game consoles imported from China has seen one of its largest market share gains since Trump’s tariffs took effect – falling from 86% of U.S. imports to about a quarter last year.
Clothing and Footwear: Imports of clothing, footwear and textiles will fall from nearly $36 billion in 2024 to $24 billion in 2025, accounting for only about 20% of the U.S. import market for these products last year. Ten years ago, these products accounted for 42% of the import share.
plastic: China’s share of the U.S. plastics import market will continue to decline in 2025, falling by about 5 percentage points to 21% last year. With imports of nearly $15 billion, China remains the largest player in the U.S. plastic products market, ahead of Canada, Mexico and Vietnam.
Other electronic equipment: Among consumer electronics and machinery, which account for a large share of China’s imports, the largest declines came from video monitors and audio equipment such as speakers and microphones. U.S. imports in these categories combined fell from $12 billion to $6 billion. Other products imported from China, such as electric heaters and batteries, have also seen their share of the U.S. market decline.
furniture and lighting: U.S. imports of furniture, lamps and bedding from China will decline more than in previous years, reaching $12.6 billion in 2025, compared with $18.5 billion the previous year. Vietnam has benefited the most from China’s declining market share, followed by Mexico.
drug: In 2025, the United States will import about $5.4 billion worth of pharmaceuticals from China, down from nearly $8 billion the previous year. China accounts for less than 3% of total U.S. pharmaceutical imports.
