Iran has unveiled its vision for war with the United States, detailing how it would defeat the world’s most powerful military and severely disrupt the global economy.
In a detailed battle plan published by Tasnim, a news agency affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran’s leadership envisions attacks on U.S. bases, the opening of new fronts by proxy allies, cyber warfare and a paralysis of global oil trade. Iran insists that the Middle East’s geographical advantages will trump U.S. technology.
Negotiations between the two countries appeared to be on the verge of collapse before both sides agreed to meet in Oman on Friday. But Donald Trump said Wednesday night that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei should still be “very worried”, raising fears of another escalation.
Phase One: U.S. Attacks Iran
The Iranian scenario begins with U.S. air and missile attacks on nuclear facilities, military installations and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps bases, most of which are located in densely populated areas.
The U.S. military is likely to launch attacks from aircraft carriers, including the USS Abraham Lincoln Aircraft Carrier Strike Group currently in the region, strategic bombers flying from domestic or European bases, and possibly from allied land-based systems.
Second’
‘
The Pentagon has planned such operations extensively for decades, culminating in a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities last June. Trump has repeatedly threatened to attack the country again after anti-regime protesters were brutally suppressed by government forces, killing thousands.
Former MI6 chief Sir Richard Dearlove told The Daily Telegraph’s Normal Planet podcast: “I think the likelihood of an attack is quite high, and the reason why it’s quite high is because the Israelis are urging Trump to do it.”
Image source: X/@Tasnimnews_Fa
The U.S. strike plan will include stealth aircraft, precision-guided munitions and coordinated salvos aimed at overwhelming Iran’s air defenses while minimizing losses to U.S. aircraft.
Technological advances in hypersonic weapons and electronic warfare will give the United States significant advantages.
However, Iran believes it has prepared for such a scenario by hardening and dispersing key assets, establishing redundant command structures, and developing extensive underground facilities capable of surviving an initial strike.
Tehran’s calculation is not to prevent damage, but to retain enough ability to launch a counterattack.
“We are ready to respond to any moves by the enemy,” Armed Forces Chief of Staff Major General Abdulrahim Mousavi said during a visit to an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps missile city on Wednesday.
“After 12 days of war, we changed our military doctrine from defensive to offensive by adopting a policy of asymmetric warfare and destructive response to the enemy,” he said.
Phase 2: Iran fights back with help
Iran’s response would immediately expand the battlefield beyond its borders. The plan envisions Tehran launching ballistic missiles and drones at U.S. military installations in the region within hours.
Key targets include Al Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, home to the forward headquarters of U.S. Central Command and a major hub for air operations. Iran attacked the base last year after U.S. B-2 bombers struck its nuclear facilities.
In Kuwait, Ali Salem Air Base and Camp Arifjan, a major logistics hub for U.S. ground forces, will come under attack, while installations across the United Arab Emirates and a U.S. base in Syria, home to 2,000 U.S. troops, will also be targeted.
Iranian military spokesman Amir Akraminia claimed that access to U.S. bases was “very easy.”
Second’
‘
After the assassination of Qassem Soleimani in 2020, Iran attacked Iraq’s Ain al-Asad air base with ballistic missiles, causing brain injuries to more than 100 U.S. soldiers. Although the US military completed a “full withdrawal” from the base in January, it may attempt to do so again.
“Iran does not see itself as an ‘island’ in a war, but rather as the center of a network of potential confrontations,” the report said.
Iran’s strategy envisions numerically overwhelming U.S. defenses by saturating the Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense systems by launching hundreds or thousands of projectiles simultaneously.
Iran’s arsenal includes Shahed-136 drones with a payload of 50 kilograms, Kheibar Shekan ballistic missiles with maneuverable warheads designed to evade missile defense systems, Emad ballistic missiles with a payload of 750 kilograms, and Paveh cruise missiles with a range of 1,000 miles.
Image source: Telewebion
While many missiles would be intercepted, Iran believes enough would penetrate to cause heavy casualties and damage to critical infrastructure. At the same time, it is conceivable that Iran’s “axis of resistance” will be activated on multiple fronts.
Lebanese Hezbollah has said it views a war against Iran as its own and may launch rockets and missiles into Israel, forcing U.S. allies to divert resources to defense.
Yemen’s Houthis will step up attacks on Red Sea ships and Israeli and U.S. bases in the region. Iraqi militia groups allied with Tehran will attack U.S. personnel and diplomatic facilities.
However, this multi-agent strategy faces significant challenges. Recent Israeli military operations have severely weakened the capabilities of Hezbollah and Hamas.
Second’
‘
It seems optimistic to assume that these groups will immediately coordinate an effective attack while defending against Israeli and U.S. countermeasures.
Host nations, including Iraq and Lebanon, can work proactively to prevent their territories from being used for attacks that could bring devastating retaliation.
But the multi-front approach aims to spread U.S. forces in the region by triggering multiple conflicts in different locations, thereby limiting Washington’s ability to concentrate its efforts against Iran.
Tehran warned that any country providing airspace, bases or logistical support for U.S. operations would be declared a “legitimate target.”
Phase Three: Cyber Warfare
Iran plans to launch cyberattacks targeting what it sees as U.S. vulnerabilities: transportation networks, energy infrastructure, financial systems and military communications.
Tehran believes cyber operations could disrupt U.S. logistics, complicate command and control and sow confusion among allies where U.S. troops are stationed.
By attacking civilian infrastructure such as power grids or water systems, Iran hopes to pressure host governments to expel U.S. troops.
Iranian hackers have previously demonstrated capabilities against regional targets. In 2012, the Shamoon virus compromised 30,000 computers at Saudi oil giant Aramco.
Second’
‘
Iranian groups have recently inspected U.S. infrastructure but have had limited success targeting hardened military networks.
However, U.S. Cyber Command has spent years preparing for this scenario. U.S. cyber capabilities dwarf Iran’s, with the ability to strike back against Iranian infrastructure that is more vulnerable than U.S. systems.
The Pentagon could disable Iran’s power generation, disrupt missile guidance systems and disrupt communications networks.
Phase Four: Global Oil Supply Paralysis
The report stated that Iran’s most powerful weapon is its geographical weapon: control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 21 million barrels of oil pass through every day, accounting for approximately 21% of global oil volume.
Only 24 miles wide at its narrowest point, the waterway is one of the world’s most critical energy bottlenecks. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait amid heightened tensions.
The tactics would include laying mines in waterways, attacking tankers with missiles and drones, and possibly sinking ships to block waterways.
Second’
‘
IRGC naval units have practiced swarming tactics, using small boats equipped with rockets and torpedoes designed to overwhelm larger warships.
Such action would send oil prices soaring, possibly to $200 (£160) a barrel or more, causing serious damage to the global economy and forcing the United States to make concessions.
“We can impose restrictions on the United States, France, Britain and Germany in the Strait of Hormuz and not allow them to sail,” said Hussein Shariatmadari, Khamenei’s representative.
Iran believes such an economic weapon could undermine the international alliance that supports U.S. military operations.
Image source: Aparat/@Tan
The United States has developed contingency plans to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, including mine clearance operations, destroyer escorts for tanker convoys and attacks on Iranian coastal facilities.
However, even a partial reduction in shipping capacity in the Strait of Hormuz would disrupt global markets. Iran believes the economic costs will ultimately force Washington to negotiate rather than maintain a protracted war.
However, this strategy carries risks for Iran itself. Oil exports account for the majority of government revenue, and closing the Strait of Hormuz would damage Iran’s economy even more than those of its enemies.
The fifth stage: the final stage
Tehran’s strategy relies on the United States and its allies, arguing that the costs of continued conflict will outweigh any benefits.
By threatening global energy supplies, conducting sustained attacks against multiple countries, and potentially causing significant casualties in the United States, Iran hopes to create an unsustainable, multi-front situation.
Iranian planners believe that after the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the United States has limited interest in a protracted war.
Simultaneously attacking entrenched proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and possibly Syria, while defending Gulf allies and maintaining open shipping lanes, would even strain U.S. military resources.
Iran’s strategy relies on the premise that the U.S. president will determine that the costs of war are too high – Yuri Gripas/Abaca/Bloomberg
Iran views its strategy as one of asymmetric endurance. It cannot win militarily, but believes that would make Washington’s pursuit of victory too expensive.
This calculation hinges on the United States choosing to downgrade rather than employ its full conventional capabilities, which could destroy Iran’s infrastructure and military might.
The ultimate question is political will rather than military capability.
The strategy also assumes rational decision-making by both sides, but war escalation dynamics are notoriously unpredictable. The pressure Iran intends to exert could trigger strong U.S. retaliation, especially if U.S. casualties are high.
Iran knows this. Although the plan envisioned victory, it was secretly hoped that it would never be implemented.
Try full access to The Telegraph for free now. Unlock their award-winning website and essential news app, plus helpful tools and expert guidance on your money, health and holidays.
