The Detroit Lions are, for lack of a better term, in a bind.
Their current record of 7-5 puts them not only in eighth place in the NFC playoff standings (meaning they’re on the outside), but as of this writing, both their NFC North rivals, the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers, are currently more than 1 game ahead in the standings. Oh, and the Packers swept the Lions this year, which means they’ll go straight to a head-to-head tiebreaker if it matters at the end of the season. Suffice to say, with just five games remaining on the 2025 NFL regular season schedule, the Lions’ margin for error to play meaningful football this January is thin.
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It’s no wonder Thursday night’s home game against the Dallas Cowboys is so crucial.
How can the Lions make the 2026 NFL playoffs? This is their optimal path:
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Defeated the Dallas Cowboys (8-5)
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Defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6)
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Defeat the Chicago Bears (11-6)
I know that means Detroit has to go 4-1 in a very tough late-season schedule, but it’s a fact.
The Lions don’t exactly impress with 11 wins (or even 12, which is why I don’t think they’re good against the mighty Rams), but that’s probably what it takes to make the playoffs. Luckily, ESPN still gives the Lions a decent 44% chance of making the playoffs…assuming they can take care of things down the stretch. That could impact the potential decline of the Bears or Packers (both are likely to lose at least three times in their respective semi-collapses) and/or a realistic path to the seventh seed in the NFC playoffs (Detroit’s favorite to make the postseason is currently at 19%).
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When it comes to the playoffs, the Lions aren’t quite in trouble yet. But one more punch, especially Against the Cowboys, a team that’s hot on their heels in the standings, it’s hard to see them recovering enough to save their playoff dreams.
This article was originally published in “To Win: How the Lions Reach the NFL Playoffs This Season”