El Niño is brewing: What it means for U.S. weather in 2026
A big shift may be brewing in the Pacific: Forecasters say El Niño could emerge later this year. If it does, it could reshape weather patterns across the United States in the second half of 2026 and into the Atlantic hurricane season.
What is El Niño and why is it important?
El Niño is part of a natural climate cycle that occurs every few years. This happens when tropical Pacific Ocean water warms near the equator. The opposite phase is La Niña, when temperatures are below average in the same area.
When such a large area of the Pacific warms (or cools) for months at a time, it can push the jet stream to different locations. This shift could alter the tracks of storms and patterns of wetness or dryness around the world. This is one of the factors AccuWeather takes into account when constructing long-range weather forecasts.
On Sunday, December 31, 2017, as the sun set, a man walked in the rain holding an umbrella. (AP Photo/Petros Karadjias)
The most recent El Niño events occurred in the winters of 2018-19 and 2023-24.
When does El Niño start?
“These trends support El Niño development in late spring to early summer this year,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Chat Merrill said.
But there’s a problem: Late winter and early spring are tricky times for long-term forecasting. This is known as the “spring predictability barrier,” when models are typically less reliable than they are later in the year. Even with such restrictions, forecasters say the overall pattern still points to El Niño developing into the fall.
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“Typically, the stronger the signal, the greater the confidence in the effects of a typical El Niño season,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls said, adding that there are early signs in the Pacific that El Nicho is starting to develop, but that change is slow and full development is still months away.
What El Niño means for weather and hurricane season
If El Niño occurs during the summer, one of the biggest areas to watch is the Atlantic hurricane season, which peaks in September.
“El Niño tends to increase mid- and upper-level wind shear (winds that strengthen with height and direction) more frequently in parts of the Atlantic basin,” AccuWeather remote specialist Paul Pastelok said. “This may reduce storm development: a barrier to an overactive hurricane season this year.”
Generally speaking, higher wind shear makes storms more difficult to organize and intensify, which can reduce the total number of tropical storms and hurricanes compared to La Niña seasons. The effects of El Niño can also change where storms are more likely to form, sometimes skewing storm activity farther over the Atlantic rather than closer to the U.S. coastline. El Niño, meanwhile, could have the opposite effect in the eastern Pacific, where hurricane activity often increases.
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El Niño also affects rainfall patterns across the U.S., which could be good news for areas of the West that have been very dry.
“El Niño will likely bring more rainfall than normal to the Colorado Basin,” Merrill said. The increase in rainfall is not enough to alleviate the ongoing drought, but it is a step in the right direction.
“An early onset of El Niño could lead to increased humidity in the summer and fall from the southern Plains to the East Coast,” Nichols added.
Looking ahead, El Niño is also likely to be an important part of the 2026-27 winter forecast.
