Here is why ETH’s ‘brutal stumble’ looks exactly like the start of the last bull run: Asia Morning Briefing

Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s happening in the market:

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The cryptocurrency market entering the Year of the Horse is looking less like a victory parade and more like a racehorse standing at the starting gate: muscles tense after a long stumble.

The ETH vs. BTC chart is of particular interest as it is starting to resemble the same stride pattern seen before the last major crypto bull run.

The metaphor for the Year of the Horse is more about rhythm than destiny. In market folklore, the Year of the Horse is associated with speed, sudden changes in direction, and momentum that builds quickly once it begins. Applied to the cryptocurrency space, this means the expectation of greater volatility, faster capital turnover, and the possibility that leadership may shift away from pure Bitcoin dominance toward higher beta assets if liquidity conditions stabilize.

The ETH vs. BTC chart is getting attention because a sequence that happened once before now seems to be repeating itself.

During the last major cycle, ETH bottomed relative to Bitcoin about 9 months before gold peaked, and then suffered a brutal 30%-40% relative decline, convincing many that the trade was broken.

Instead, the final stumble marks the bottom. As gold cools and defensive positioning unwinds, capital shifts back into higher-beta cryptocurrencies, sending Ethereum up more than 300% against Bitcoin and helping ignite a broader bull market.

Today, the structure looks familiar rather than identical. The ETH/BTC chart hit a relative low about 9 months before gold hit its recent highs, and is now down around 31%, putting it within historical retracement territory before a sharp reversal to the upside.

QCP said traders were still buying currencies to protect against further losses, but not with the same urgency as during last year’s sharp sell-off, suggesting traders were cautious rather than outright panicking.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan Private Bank’s Yuxuan Tang wrote in an emailed note that despite the recent pullback, gold’s long-term fundamentals remain intact and he believes central banks and institutional demand continue to provide structural support.

The push and pull between resilient safe-haven demand and washed-out crypto positioning makes the ETH-BTC ratio attractive. In the Year of the Horse, the market is not yet sprinting, but it may no longer be limping.

However, the ratio is more of a temperament measure than a forecast, suggesting that capital rotation could accelerate quickly if liquidity stabilizes and Bitcoin’s dominance relaxes. The horse usually doesn’t walk when it finally moves. They gallop.

This meteoric rise, at least according to market forecasts, looks more like an uptick from current levels rather than a new record high. Kalshi punters say Bitcoin will reach $105,000 in 2026, while at Polymarket punters believe there is only a 29% chance of Bitcoin breaking the magic number of $126,000.

Hopefully the horse will finish the race.

market trend

Bitcoin: Bitcoin is currently trading near $78,800 and a brief liquidation-driven rally into weak support above $70,000 has the market focusing on the long-term holders of $60,000 to $65,000 and the 200-week average area as the next major bottom unless U.S. stocks roll over.

Ethereum: Ethereum is currently trading near $2,345 after a brief rebound following a weekend sell-off, but with a larger weekly decline than Bitcoin and weaker structural support, the market remains cautious and believes prices may continue lower unless broader risk appetite improves.

Gold: Gold is trading near $4,830 as prices attempt to stabilize after a margin-driven sell-off, but rising volatility and a stronger U.S. dollar have left the rebound fragile rather than signaling a full return to the previous uptrend.

Nikkei 225 Index: The Nikkei 225 rose about 2.4%, leading Asian stocks higher, with South Korea’s Kospi rising more than 5% as optimism about a new U.S.-India trade deal boosted regional risk sentiment. The broader market followed a rebound in U.S. stocks, despite continued volatility in gold, silver and cryptocurrencies.

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