A dangerous wave of political danger is rising around President Trump as criticism mounts that he could lose control of the war with Iran.
The conflict he launched about three weeks ago with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was a war of choice. But even if Tehran’s regime is weakened, it still has some options of its own.
The way it has exercised those options has caused economic pain to the United States and the world, and created real problems for Trump.
In the past 24 hours, global energy prices have once again fluctuated due to attacks and counterattacks in the Middle East. Subsequently, multiple media reported that an American F-35 fighter jet had to make an emergency landing because it was suspected of being hit by Iranian artillery fire.
First, Israel attacked the giant South Pars gas field off the coast of Iran, which is estimated to provide about three-quarters of the Islamic Republic’s natural gas. Iran retaliated by attacking gas processing facilities in Qatar and oil refineries in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
The events roiled energy markets and prompted Trump to take to social media.
He wrote on Truth Social that Israel launched the attack “out of anger at what’s happening in the Middle East,” then claimed the United States had “no knowledge” of the attack — a claim that some experts disputed and contradicted by reports late Thursday in The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times.
Trump pledged that Israel would not further attack the gas field unless Iran escalated its actions in Qatar. But if Tehran chooses the latter, the United States will “blow up the entire South Pars gas field with a force Iran has never seen,” he wrote.
Markets remain highly volatile.
After the attack, Brent crude oil prices surged above $118, but gradually fell back to around $107 by around 5 p.m. ET on Thursday. Just a month ago, the price was around $70.
The rise in oil prices has been reflected in the price Americans pay at the pump. The national average price per gallon Thursday was $3.88, according to AAA. That’s an increase of about 95 cents compared to a month ago.
There are also concerns that rising fuel costs will lead to a broader rise in inflation.
Trump downplayed the impact of rising prices when he met with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi at the White House on Thursday.
“I thought it was going to be worse, actually much worse,” Trump told reporters. “It’s not bad and it’ll be over soon.”
But others see political danger as imminent.
Grant Reh, a political science professor at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, said that while the response to the conflict so far has largely been along party lines, “I do think this is a uniquely dangerous moment.” [for Trump]. So far, the president has been losing ground in his approval ratings. To me, this one is more likely to open the floodgates. “
Reh noted that major pitfalls include oil prices and their impact, potential negative knock-on effects on financial markets, and the potential for the conflict to expand or drag on across the region.
Trump’s political fragility has been exacerbated by the fact that war has never been popular.
In this respect, it differs from even the most contentious conflicts of modern times. The war in Iraq, and a generation ago the Vietnam War, initially enjoyed broad public support, although that support eroded significantly over time.
Clashes within Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement have created tensions that have further fueled Trump’s political turmoil.
The extent of the division has been hotly debated, with Trump loyalists pointing to polls showing an overwhelming majority of MAGA supporters support military action against Iran.
That being said, criticism from typically Trump-friendly media figures like Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly and Joe Rogan will at least reach the president’s supporters in a way that more liberal criticism cannot.
The right-wing debate intensified further when Joe Kent, Trump’s director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned earlier this week over the war. His resignation letter alleged that Israeli officials and American media figures conspired to “trick” Trump into launching war.
That said, some more mainstream Republicans are skeptical of the debate raging within MAGA.
“Most people in this space are very principled and actually very malleable, and they see something in Trump that’s not there, or a combination of both,” said Doug Heyye, the former communications director for the Republican National Committee. “If elected Republicans flip, that will tell us a lot more than if employees resign and then give interviews.”
Haye also said it was “too early” to tell whether the situation in Iran was slipping away from Trump’s control.
On Saturday, the war will enter a three-week phase. To be fair, the situation on the ground could suddenly change in Trump’s favor.
If U.S. and Israeli airstrikes succeed in lifting the blockade of the vital Strait of Hormuz, Iran will lose its last and one of its most powerful cards.
The regime itself may also be crumbling. During a White House meeting with Takahiro, both Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant and Trump himself said they saw a “betrayal” by Tehran’s ruling regime and its military.
Bessant even predicted that “the regime may collapse from within,” although Trump did not appear to explicitly endorse this claim.
Meanwhile, Trump and his allies are denouncing the media for what they believe is insufficient attention to the success of the war effort.
At a media briefing Thursday morning, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth complained about a “dishonest and anti-Trump media” that he said was “downplaying progress, exaggerating every cost, and questioning every step.”
“We are achieving a decisive victory on our terms,” Heggs insisted.
But with there being no sign yet that Iran’s overall governance structure has collapsed, America’s traditional allies firmly blocking Trump’s request for help on the Strait of Hormuz issue, and domestic natural gas prices rising, this message has not been recognized by most Americans.
Earlier this week, an Economist/YouGov poll asked people whether they approved or disapproved of the way Trump was handling the situation in Iran.
Only 36% of respondents agreed. Fifty-six percent disagreed.
Regardless, this is bad news for the White House.
The Memo is Niall Stanage’s reporting column.
Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
For the latest news, weather, sports and streaming video, head to The Hill.
